Probably not a lot. Michigan also had a competitive-ish R governor race and some competitive R House primaries. And AES would benefit from winning over some D-curious Republicans in the general election, anyway. Repost of @EmmaVigeland: Original post

No, it doesn't suggest that. The polling average was off by ~13 points. Instead, it might suggest that while AES generates a lot of enthusiasm, he also generates enthusiastic opposition. Repost of @ryangrim: Original post

It's 4:20 AM! But I have some thoughts on Michigan for you here: Original post

What to make of Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.

natesilver.net

Right, if he wins by any margin, it's still very impressive in an objective, non-expectations-adjusted sense. It was also stupid AF for him to release a bunch of internals showing himself +13 or whatever. Repost of @PanasonicDX4500: Original post

The implied projection from prediction markets is El-Sayed eventually winning by ~4, though a larger win or a Stevens win remain possible. That would reflect a pretty big polling error, though I doubt AES will care so long as he wins. Original post

It's worth remembering that Congressional races are much more correlated with presidential voting than gubernatorial races. And rationally so: a senator affects policy for the entire country, and the Senate is basically a parliamentary body now. Not true for governors. Original post

I feel like there's an increasing amount of cope when an establishment candidate loses to a progressive to just say, "Oh, they were obviously a weak candidate, a different/better establishment candidate would have won." Original post

This is an interesting admission from Claude, and it's consistent with my experience with it. It gets more stubborn and attached as the context window gets longer. Kind of like people as they age, arguably. Original post

It's a fairly low-probability outcome at this point. But how could Republicans hold the House? They probably need at least 2 big things to go right: 1) A substantial economic recovery 2) Winning the argument that Democrats are too far left 3) A systemic 2016-style polling error Original post

I think the author of the DNC autopsy is giving himself too much credit. If you actually read the omitted chapter (good of the NYT to include it), it consists largely of boilerplate and clichés and mentions Biden's decision to run only in passing. Original post

So, over the past few decades: (1) academia has become much more "political" and more of a political monoculture, (2) public perceptions of academia have massively tanked. Have you ever paused to consider, Todd, that maybe this is academia's fault, at least a little bit? Original post

Another question I'd have about the AI math breakthroughs is how they compare to the results you would have gotten if you'd budgeted the same amount of resources on human mathematicians and created incentives for them to go super hard on proofs. Original post

The AI math proofs are impressive. But also probably among the hardest things for normies to appreciate. Personally, I think the AI labs underweight the value of putting bandwidth into achieving results that impress normies as opposed to evals/people within the peer group. Original post

Repost by @NateSilver538 RT by @NateSilver538: Aeneid people to stop doing this Repost of @RepMarkPocan: Click to see original repost

Progressives have pretty good timing to have these primary wins in what's likely to be a D +7 cycle. Like you can underperform by 5 points or whatever and still win a lot of places. And most people just look at the Ws and Ls, not the margins. Original post

Yeah I don't know why groups like this are endorsing political candidates. But IMO we're seeing an increase in circa 2019-style woke politics lately. I don't think we'll hit particularly close to the 2019 peak, but it's higher than the ~2025 floor. Repost of @j_kalla: Original post

Trump's approval had improved slightly earlier this month, but is now at a new 2nd-term low in our tracking. Original post

Granted, we didn't have a particularly good baseline of where the race stood before, and primary polls are error-prone, etc etc etc. But if AES were to win by 12 points or whatever, that Whitmer endorsement of Stevens isn't going to look great. Original post

IDK man I don't really like doing TV. But the notion that TV anchors are Serious Journalists ... sometimes, yes, but mostly not. Original post

60% of GDP growth in the past year is due to AI capex. The other 40% is NBA billable hours to Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. Original post

OK, folks. I have some way-too-detailed thoughts on the Democrats' new 2028 primary calendar. For example: why putting states with lots of Black and Hispanic voters first helps moderates. Original post

In the midst of my 3rd big coding/model project since March. I just can't emphasize enough how much a) AI tools are very helpful to someone (me, I suppose) with relevant domain knowledge, but b) would likely produce extremely buggy models without a human expert in the loop. Original post

Who fucking cares it's literally not even in the top 100 Trump corruption scandals Repost of @minervas_muse: Original post

Sometimes it's unfair. Being head of the DNC has to be one of the worst high-prestige jobs in America. But usually when someone is paranoid about being fired, you should just fire them because they won't perform well or command any confidence. Original post

It's kind of striking how, apart from Iran, most of the Trump-related stories this summer have been boring and dumb (reflection pool, White House Correspondents' Dinner) or kind of funny (FIFA), maybe we're moving on from him being the central figure in American politics. Original post

For a total break from sports and politics, I had a great conversation with @catehall this week about her outstanding new book on agency, "You Can Just Do Things". Link to the full conversation in the next tweet. Original post

I don't think we have good ways to distinguish "AI discovers things" from "humans discover things, with help from expertly directed use of powerful software," but I think there's probably a bias toward classifying things that are really in category #2 as being in category #1. Original post

Morris Katz is probably a brilliant strategist. But I thought he came across as dubious in the Ezra Klein interview on the question of what the campaign knew when and frankly kind of scummy for not apologizing to Genevieve McDonald. Original post

Kinda disrespectful to the Knicks Original post

This is what's wrong with Britain tbh Repost of @YouGov: Original post