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@claynotmarble.bsky.social

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Katie Phang@katiephang.bsky.social · 15h ago

"Employers added 29,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, slower than expected growth...Growth in average hourly earnings fell to 3% on an annual basis in September, well below the current rate of inflation." www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10...

Jobs Report Live Updates: Growth Cools and Unemployment Rises to 4.2%

U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, as inflation has maintained pressure on markets and raised costs.

nytimes.com

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 2d ago

This morning's softer PCE inflation numbers appear to have changed the Fed debate. Futures markets reckon the chances of a pre-election hike have fallen sharply, although it remains a very real possibility.

Horizontal bar chart titled "October Fed decision odds: yesterday vs today" shows probability of different Federal Reserve rate decisions. Market expectations shifted dramatically overnight, with the odds of no change plummeting from 57% to 29%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged from 43% to 71%. This 28 percentage point swing transforms a rate increase from a minority view to the clear consensus expectation for the October Fed meeting.
Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 2d ago

Americans carry $1T in credit card debt. But what worries me is how many people don't know basic personal finance.⁣ ⁣ We spend a lot of time explaining the economy. We should spend more time helping people. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/most-people-arent-washing-their-financial

Most People Aren’t Washing Their Financial Hands

Everyone trusts that germs exist. So why don’t people trust economists about money?

newsletter.platypuseconomics.com

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · yesterday

The Fed can’t magically reopen the Strait of Hormuz or repeal tariffs.⁣ ⁣ What it can do to slow inflation is freeze the economy until businesses stop raising prices.⁣ ⁣ The only problem with that is people will start losing their jobs. Not the best option.

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 16h ago

I've been following the two alternative measures of employment for a while. The establishment survey is much more likely to be reliable, though the gap between them is notable. This month the household survey showed reasonably strong employment growth, narrowing the gap a bit.

Line chart titled "The household survey recovered this month, but has been weaker than the payrolls survey" showing non-farm payroll jobs measured in thousands from January 2025 to September 2026. Two data series compare employment: the household survey (adjusted to match payrolls concepts) and the payrolls survey. The payrolls survey shows steady growth from 158.3 million to 159.0 million jobs. The household survey displays much greater volatility, dropping from 158.0 million in November 2025 to a low of 156.4 million in June 2026, then recovering to 157.3 million by September 2026. As of September 2026, the household survey reports 1.8 million fewer jobs than the payrolls survey, highlighting a significant divergence between these two labor market measures.
Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 15h ago

Pro-tip: Seasonal blips like this distort month-to-month changes in jobs, leading July to look particularly weak and August to look strong. That's why taking a three-month average is often your best bet.

Line chart titled "The fall then rise in teacher's jobs was mostly a seasonal adjustment glitch" showing jobs in local government education measured in thousands of employees. Employment remained stable around 8.2 million through September 2026 despite an unusual 52,000-job drop in July 2026 that appears to be a seasonal adjustment anomaly rather than genuine job loss. The series grew modestly from 8.15 million in September 2024 to 8.20 million in September 2026, with the July dip to 8.16 million representing a temporary statistical aberration that was largely reversed by August and September.
Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 15h ago

And so it continues... Our economic debates seem utterly disconnected from the reality. That reality: This is an economy mostly creating healthcare jobs, and it does so month after month, and everything else is just noise.

Line chart titled "Effectively all of the net job creation has been in healthcare and social assistance, and jobs are shrinking in the rest of the economy" showing change in non-farm payrolls since January 2025 through September 2026. Healthcare and social assistance added 998,000 jobs with consistent growth throughout the period, while the rest of the economy lost 222,000 jobs, meaning all net job creation came from healthcare. The rest of the economy showed particular weakness from May through August 2025 when losses reached 218,000 jobs. This striking divergence reveals an unusual concentration where one sector's growth of roughly 48,000 jobs per month has offset persistent contraction across all other industries combined.
Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 16h ago

An all around weak -- but not tragic -- payrolls report for September. +29k jobs created, about 60k below expectations. Revisions made both July and August look weaker, too. Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month.

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