OliviaMLondon 🍉

@oliviamlondon.bsky.social

Another day, another protest… I go on a LOT of protests. Happy woke London vegan - I care about people & planet. ❤️ nature, knitting, cycling, theatre, art. #Palestine #Sudan #ClimateChange

In short: the #AMOC is weakening, may collapse this century, &even small shifts could trigger abrupt change These tipping points are a major national security blind spot, threatening food, energy &global stability, they must be addressed urgently As argued here by @laurielaybourn.bsky.social et al

The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security | IPPR

The new UK government has initiated a Strategic Defence Review and is undertaking a review of national resilience. Security threats resulting from climate

ippr.org

8️⃣ "Subjective probability estimates based on expert opinions are useful & indicate a substantial probability of an #AMOC collapse, particularly under high future warming scenarios." Expert assessments suggest a substantial probability of collapse if warming continues. Action now can reduce risk.

1️⃣ "[AMOC] may undergo a transition to a climate-disrupting state within a century under continuing greenhouse gas emissions." The review emphasizes that continued warming could push the #AMOC toward a tipping point this century.

8/9 My article explores how these patterns repeat across the globe, from overheated apartments to flooded rice fields. Political and infrastructural neglect creates predictable vulnerability, turning slow violence into deaths of neglect.

Amap of the countries most vulnerable to climate change

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index gauges countries' vulnerability based on their exposure, sensitivity and ability to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change

Source:
https://theconversation.com/loss-and-damage-who-is-responsible-when-climate-change-harms-the-worlds-poorest-countries-192070

5/9 Rob Nixon’s idea of slow violence complements this perspective. He argues that environmental harm accumulates slowly and imperceptibly, with its full tragedy rarely seen, such as deadly heatwaves gradually claiming the lives of people in their homes.

Slow Violence and the Environmentalism of the Poor — Harvard University Press

“Groundbreaking in its call to reconsider our approach to the slow rhythm of time in the very concrete realms of environmental health and social justice.” —World Literature TodayThe violence wrought b...

hup.harvard.edu

Globally, #climate harms follow patterns. The elderly, the sick, marginalized communities, and the poor are consistently at greater risk. Vulnerability isn’t just exposure, it’s embedded in infrastructure, policy, and social support systems that fail to protect certain groups.

Diagram showing climate vulnerability as the interaction of three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure includes the area affected by climate hazards, their severity, and frequency. Sensitivity includes household and community characteristics, housing quality, and access to services and utilities. Adaptive capacity includes mobilizable resources, information and skills, communication, and institutional and social capital. Together, these factors determine overall climate vulnerability.

2/9 In Texas, three elderly relatives died in their apartment after a broken air conditioner, chronic illness, and social isolation combined, and no one noticed for days. Extreme heat was the immediate cause, but this tragedy was shaped by much more than temperature.

Chronic Health Problems Amplify Heat Risk in the Rio Grande Valley - Inside Climate News

The deaths of two elderly siblings and their 60-year-old caretaker at first mystified Brownsville. Extreme heat is a quiet but growing threat for Rio Grande Valley residents with chronic health condit...

insideclimatenews.org

And I'd like to add the most important 'pessimist' point of all: even if we do continue with exponential renewables addition and replace instead of add to ff energy, we're over planetary boundaries in other systems and growing 'green' energy and material throughput will only make that worse.

I feel called out because I solidly agree with the 'pessimist' framing in each of your examples. I have to say I'd call it 'realist' not pessimistic. I retain stubborn optimism that we can still do better, but the optimist framing feels unrealistic given how much faster we need to transition.

11/ Until we name that, this argument will keep looping. I find myself cautious when interpreting these trends: progress exists, but limits are real and urgent, and much more could be done to reduce unnecessary harm.

Bild

10/ The optimist–pessimist divide isn’t just about hope or despair It’s about interpreting uncertainty & which risks we consider acceptable when some outcomes are far worse than others Scenario-based projections amplify room for multiple readings depending on the counterfactuals we deem plausible

Bild

9/ This matters because climate communication often treats disagreement as a knowledge problem. But many people aren’t confused about the data. They’re weighting momentum vs limits, trends vs risk, improvement vs sufficiency, differently.