Laurie Laybourn
@laurielaybourn.bsky.social
How do we navigate uncharted climate territory? Lead: www.scri.org.uk Researcher at Chatham House, IPPR, University of Exeter
"Governments develop worst case scenarios to inform planning. In some instances, the heatwaves and wildfires are going beyond these This should be a moment of profound alarm and reflection for governments" Some thoughts on @ajenglish.bsky.social about the Euro-fires www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbSx...
What's causing the unprecedented wildfires in Europe? | Inside Story
YouTube video by Al Jazeera English
youtube.com
"You could see an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke to The New York Times about the powerful El Niño pattern currently forming in the Pacific Ocean. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/c...
A Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.
nytimes.com
'There’s possibility for a perfect storm: increases in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that.' It was great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this important piece in @nytimes.com on the potential consequences of the upcoming El Niño
"This is part of what we see as a whole spectrum of products that you deploy at various points along the way, changing the very story that people have in their minds." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joined Federico Spiezia on his podcast to discuss why the SCRI decided to launch a narrative podcast.
1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing? The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise. A thread. 🧵👇
"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now." SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.
1/ For those of us keeping an eye on systemic #climate risks, these aren’t difficult dots to connect. I find it downright frightening. We need to brace for impacts and spring into preparedness now. This thread outlines 6 key papers and what we can do in response. ⬇️🧵
Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the think tank Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said the report was not a “prediction that collapse is inevitable” but a “warning that on the current trajectory, under current policies, collapse becomes a real possibility”. www.thetimes.com/article/3812...
Britain’s food supply ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’
A report written before the 2024 election says climate change, habitat loss and geopolitical instability are a danger to food security — and it has been ignored
thetimes.com
2/ Meanwhile, new reporting by the Times, quoting our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, highlights internal UK government analysis showing that Britain’s food supply is ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’. Papers like the above show severe security threats which are not being addressed.
Renewables mean that "Spain looks well placed in two ways. Its speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills — but that should help bolster its political independence too. Good reason for Europe’s green brigade to charge ahead." www.ft.com/content/19f2...
Spain is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks
The country’s speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills
ft.com
"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero." SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.
Hybrid roundtable 18th March at @exeter.ac.uk "Economic Policy to Navigate Climate Risks: from Tipping Points to Green Swans . I will be talking about climate & social tipping points (including derailment risks) Register 👇 forms.office.com/pages/respon...
Thanks to all those who came to Kairos the other night and for a wonderful discussion on how to make sure climate action isn’t derailed by climate consequences Check out our Strategic Climate Risks Initiative research on derailment risk at scri.org.uk/derailment
This is something I have often wondered about - to what extent can we overcome tendencies to respond poorly to crises? At Kairos tonight: Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social share.google/Qxl6wiSe6vsA...
In London on Tuesday night this week? Join me at Kairos on Tottenham Court Road to talk about how we can maintain our agency to act on climate change even as its impacts escalate Doors and drinks at 1830, talk starts at 1900 Grab a ticket 👇 www.kairos.london/event/derail...
Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with Laurie Laybourn - Kairos
Tuesday March 10th, 6.30 for 7pm As the world heads deeper into the new climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act? It's often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts e...
kairos.london
1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵
"If pandemic threat assessment and preparedness was as fragmented, we would be scandalised." It was great talking to Ellen for this excellent piece in @prospectmagazine.co.uk about climate risk and the threat of AMOC collapse specifically Essential reading!
Ellen Halliday@ellenhalliday.bsky.social · 5mo agoI didn't post this yesterday because we were too busy getting our April issue launched—but I've written a piece in it! It's about a big current in the Atlantic ocean, how it could collapse, and to what extent we, in the UK, are prepared for that. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/enviro...
The world is in the literal and figurative storm of an Earth system crisis Like sailors who end up in a storm, we need a strategy for navigating *within it* so that we have a chance of *getting out* How? Check out my latest episode with @pbs.org's Weathered👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4pS...
Climate Change Won't End the World. This Could.
YouTube video by PBS Terra
youtube.com
We need more stories that help people learn from what’s working. Not just what’s going wrong. Not just what “has to happen by 2050.” Real examples of action that others can see, understand & build on. Here's a 🧵on advice & tips for sharing #climate stories that actually inspire action.
“[AMOC collapse] is a scenario of global tumult, driven by countries with large populations pushed from the climate regime they're used to. It’s a recipe for serious, persistent global destabilisation” Great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this piece www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Why this country declared an ocean current collapse a national security risk
The disruption of a current that carries heat north from the tropics would make much of the world hotter, while turning Iceland into “one giant glacier.”
washingtonpost.com
Starting now 👇
Laurie Laybourn@laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 6mo agoWe're in a new climate reality - but how can we best operate in it? Join me and a stellar panel - including @emmahowardboyd.bsky.social - for this @businessgreen.bsky.social webinar to explore how best to map climate risk and build resilience 📅 Tomorrow (Tuesday 10th Feb) ⏰ 1200-1300 GMT
We're in a new climate reality - but how can we best operate in it? Join me and a stellar panel - including @emmahowardboyd.bsky.social - for this @businessgreen.bsky.social webinar to explore how best to map climate risk and build resilience 📅 Tomorrow (Tuesday 10th Feb) ⏰ 1200-1300 GMT
A new report highlights the "growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment," while also warning that ambitious action "cannot await perfected models."
Scientists: 'Garbage' Models Underestimate Risk of Economic Collapse From Climate Crisis
Experts warn of a growing gap between real-world climate risk and economic analysis, and urge immediate action to prevent catastrophic warming.
commondreams.org
Back in the Autumn, No.10 blocked the publication of a report into the risks the UK could face if climate change causes ecosystems around the world to collapse. On Tuesday, after an FOI request, it published the report. But it turns out, that wasn't the full version. www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...
Suppressed climate report warned of mass migration and nuclear war
Unabridged document said disappearing forests and rivers drying up could drive people to Europe and lead to conflict in Asia
thetimes.com
9/ On the charge of "fear-mongering": #Climate science does not choose alarm as a strategy. The scientific assessment of climate risk has intensified because the evidence has intensified, while global emissions continue to rise. The latest @ipcc.bsky.social report is very clear on this point:
Lol, Zillow tried to rate the climate risks facing individual properties. The real estate industry *hated* it, precisely because it worked -- it made selling risky properties more difficult. So they rebelled & Zillow caved. Don't look up!
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
nytimes.com
If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a city to make a documentary... In this final bonus post, read about the people, articles, books, and films that helped and inspired us as we made @overshootpod.bsky.social👇
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson: "We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility." youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
youtu.be
In summer 1945, the UK prime minister wrote an extraordinarily prescient memo about the strategic consequences of the atomic bomb Eighty years later, as a new climate reality dawns, something similar needs to happen Read my latest @overshootpod.bsky.social bonus essay👇
