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Gustavo S. Cortes

@cortesgustavos.bsky.social

Assistant Professor of Finance, University of Florida, Warrington College of Business Research: Macro-Finance, Banking, Monetary Policy, Financial & Economic History 🇧🇷 in 🇺🇸 https://sites.google.com/site/cortesgustavos/

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Vinicios Sant' Anna @vpsantanna.bsky.social · 2y ago

Excited to announce I am on the Job Market! My #EconJMP (with @diogobaerlocher.bsky.social and Gustavo Cortes) studies how the influx of migrants displaced by natural disasters affects neighborhoods and housing markets, focusing on the 1930s American Dust Bowl. Link: ssrn.com/abstract=502...

Title: Finding Home When Disaster Strikes: Dust Bowl Migration and Housing in Los Angeles

Authors: Diogo Baerlocher, Gustavo Cortes, and Vinicios Sant'Anna

Abstract: When natural disasters strike, the impact on housing markets can be far-reaching. This paper explores the unique dynamics of natural disaster-induced migration on the housing market, focusing on the 1930s Dust Bowl migration to Los Angeles—the top migrant destination. We use U.S. Census-linked and geocoded address data to document that the arrival of Dust Bowl migrants significantly impacted the city's housing market. We show that houses inhabited by Dust Bowl migrants had lower price growth over the decade. Critically, we uncover valuation spillovers within highly granular neighborhoods, where houses inhabited by non-migrants experienced lower price growth modulated by how close they were to Dust Bowl migrants. Our analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that these effects were primarily driven by the economic vulnerability of migrants rather than generalized discrimination. Our research contributes to understanding how natural disaster-induced migration shapes housing markets and the dimensions in which climate refugees differ from other migrants.

Cameron LaPoint @cslapoint.bsky.social · 2y ago

Excited to debut my new paper, "Housing Is the Financial Cycle: Evidence from 100 Years of Local Building Permits,” joint with @cortesgustavos.bsky.social. We document that building permits predict financial market volatility across a century of U.S. economic history. papers.ssrn.com/abstract=485...