#TheHormuzCrisis Update Hard to test the truth of the statement when the vessels were not using AIS so we just have to trust the USA on these figures. What isn't disputable is that one seafarer died and another is still listed as a casualty after being hit while transiting.

Been in meetings so catching up. @mrjamesob.bsky.social discussing Sabaton and Nightwish. That is the cross-over all metalheads needed!!

Why have we reached a stage where people call in to @natashadevon.bsky.social and say they want people to drown? Well headlines like this don’t help. Let’s forget that numbers are way down on years previous and just keep stoking fear and division. This is why the RNLI is under attack.

I ended up on the menu page of the UKMTO warnings for the first time in a while. Some people have been asking me "Just how unusual is all of the activity?" Can not really be starker than this. 2024 - Yemen Conflict 2026 - #TheHormuzCrisis

Do you know that feeling you get as an analyst when all of the signs are pointing to something, and you are pretty sure it is because some people know more than they are letting on? If not - look at this throwaway headline from 10 mins ago and you might... #TheHormuzCrisis #OilFuturesRise$4

It may have seemed quiet due to Western media focusing on other areas, but the Houthi / Saudi war in Yemen is still raging. This was in the last hour. Missiles headed for Saudi Arabia intercepted. The Bab al'Mandeb Strait is still closed to Saudi-aligned traffic and controlled by the Houthis.

Oh good. My “they are bashing the RNLI again so I need to buy another t-shirt” t-shirt arrived. Excellent quality. Pisses off racists. 5 stars.

It looks like the UNGA side meetings did little to stabilise the oil price index. I think that the remarks from both Presidents in #TheHormuzCrisis have set the tone too agressive. With all that is going on, it is something to watch. Because this reflects the dangers of transiting right now...

Daddy can I have a cute rice mouse for lunch? Ummm How about a slightly wonky rice rat?

Not yet being reported by the UKMTO - but an Indian crew member was killed (reported as one of two casualties). Still no word on the second casualty mentioned. The Indian Embassy in Oman made a statement a short time ago confirming. This is officially the 23rd seafarer killed since February...

Shameless plug time. My book The Hormuz Crisis Volume 1: The Illusion of Open Seas - February to April 2026 is available if anyone wants to gain an understanding by strategic analysis of #TheHormuzCrisis. Makes an excellent gift for that MAGA person you know that still doesn't get it...

Flash Update from the UKMTO Another vessel has been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz - 2 casualties (no mention of severity) and all personnel evacuated. This is the third such attack since the UNGA started and still not being picked up by media or politicians!!! #TheHormuzCrisis

... So I am really behind on events... I believe the phrase is "can't be everywhere..." But a lot is happening - I will switch on the dashboards overnight and update in the morning... This may be significant after #Trump's UN speeches... #TheHormuzCrisis

1/23 Sorry, this will be long... There is a lot of shouting about what happened in the Channel yesterday. So I want to go back to basic law. Not immigration policies or political rhetoric. At sea, the starting point is simple: Preservation of life comes first under all maritime conventions.

Emma Yeomans@yeomans.bsky.social · 3d ago

Worrying scenes in the Channel today, for all interested in asylum policy and maritime tactics. A small boat from Normandy spent more than 30 hours at sea. Those on board now on their 2nd rescue vessel as Border Force forced to play cat and mouse with far-right activists who have their own boat.

I know I have been very quiet today. I am watching. I just didn't want to pre-empt the talks in the UN... It is going about as I expected...

UKMTO Alert While tracking the last attack - the UKMTO has issued an alert for another attack that also occurred in the last few hours. This time an LPG carrier attempting to transit outbound in Hormuz. So two attacks on commercial shipping just today. #TheHormuzCrisis #IranUSAWar

UKMTO Flash Alert A vessel has been struck inbound in the Strait of Hormuz. 2 crew injured but reports are early. This comes at a time when tensions are high. Lots of rhetoric over the weekend about potential strikes but little happened. This could be a powder keg... I will keep watching

I know it is too much of a meme. But I can’t read this in any voice other than @markhamillofficial.bsky.social The Joker. He just sounds like an out of touch sociopath…

I have called over and over for Western governments to respond and sort out a humanitarian corridor for the trapped sailors of #TheHormuzCrisis. Saudi Arabia turns off the taps to the west due to all the issues I have posted about - and suddenly it is a G7 matter… So oil over lives again is it?

1/20 After the RNLI rage - back to #TheHormuzCrisis. Saudi Arabia is changing tack as it has not found a way around Hormuz. It has built a relay through it. That is a very different thing, and it tells us much more about where this crisis is heading than the headline oil price does right now.

@lbc.co.uk and @mrjamesob.bsky.social thank you for the time and the coverage of the story as well as listening to the stories. rnli.org/support-us/g...

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UPDATE So after much investigation and trawling of the marine safety sites - there are actually 3 independent attacks that have happened in the Strait of Hormuz in the last few days - and the info is just slipping in. A "Security Incident" and Two independent attacks on ships by the IRGC...

The dashboards were thankfully silent overnight with regards #IranUSAWar. #Trump has gone back to threats for now. Elsewhere, Israel is still attacking Lebanon and Gaza. Settler violence continues in the West Bank. The Yemen war is escalating and fuel prices are soaring.

@mrjamesob.bsky.social your favourite kind of government briefing. Attack the institution rather than answer the question. In this instance - The UN Human Rights Council apparently does nothing for Human Rights... #USAAdministration #Trump #IranUSAWar #HumanRights

UPDATE The IRGC has claimed responsibility for an attack in the Strait of Hormuz - which I am pretty sure correlates to the UKMTO "security incident" reported at 20:30 UK time tonight. The last time this happened the USA began targeting Iran again. I will leave the dashboards on overnight...

Now reports of a skiff assault that failed in the Gulf of Aden. It is unreported if this was a Somali pirate or a Houthi incident. But that is almost irrelevant at this stage. This is just more evidence to the commercial ships that security in the area is degrading further.

Just in as of 2 mins ago - UKMTO reporting a “security incident”. I will try to get more details but the reports are scant at the moment. More proof #TheHormuzCrisis is far from over despite British media ignoring it in favour of a meaningless straw poll and some kids changing schools…

1/22 Two stories in #TheHormuzCrisis caught me this morning. The first is the reported US-Houthi understanding over Red Sea shipping. The second is Saudi Arabia finding a new way to move crude through Oman after damage to its Red Sea export route and Yanbu.

Not that it is a contest. But CENTCOM have bragged openly about targeting merchant ships. WHICH ARE MANNED BY CIVILIANS!! Iran has too. But two wrongs do not make a right. We should not allow this to be normalised. It is abhorrent. #TheHormuzCrisis #IranUSAWar

1/14 Five days ago I published a strategic analysis of #TheHormuzCrisis from Suez to Iraq. This follow-up is not about proving I was “right”. It is about testing whether the framework actually helped explain what happened next, where it did not, and what needs changing now as well.