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Letitia Roman

@letitiaroman.bsky.social

PhD Candidate in International Relations @CEU, ACLED Researcher on Eastern Europe (🇷🇴🇲🇩), climate change and conflict dynamics, conflict management, causal inference 🐩🐾 enthusiast & self-proclaimed TV Series expert! Opinions are my own.

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Letitia Roman@letitiaroman.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Check out the new article on historical legacy reproduction and disruption I worked on with the amazing @vladsurdea.bsky.social 📚 It was such a nice project & looking back at COVID-19 in 🇷🇴 from this angle was really inspiring

Vlad Surdea-Hernea@vladsurdea.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The persistence literature treats historical legacies as something close to a stylized fact. My new paper with amazing @letitiaroman.bsky.social challenges this view, theorising conditions under which legacies break and testing our framework on Ottoman corruption in Romanian healthcare. 1/

Letitia Roman@letitiaroman.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Why do people protest against authoritarian regimes even when facing extreme dangers? Check out this amazing piece 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Vlad Surdea-Hernea@vladsurdea.bsky.social · 11mo ago

🚨 Why do people protest against authoritarian regimes even when facing extreme danger? 🚨 In our new paper on Romania's 1989 Revolution, we find that communities exposed to the communist Gulag showed 5x higher dissent levels. doi.org/10.1177/0010... 1/🧵

Will Lowe@conjugateprior.org · 2y ago

To the last point: one useful practical demand of causal identification thinking is that you translate "I cannot (credibly) estimate this causal effect" into "You'd need to believe <assumptions list> for that quantity there to estimate this causal effect" Then people can decide for themselves.

Maarten van Smeden@maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 2y ago

Finally, another real advantage of causal inference is that you will better recognise situations where you cannot actually estimate the causal effect you are interested in, in any reliable way. So it is a good way to avoid doing things that are hopeless