Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
'Statisticians learn hierarchical models as tools; nobody in a statistics seminar says, “This is a response to a 150-year-old problem in the foundations of probability.” And nobody in a philosophy seminar says, “The answer is lme4."' sudippaul.substack.com/p/partial-po...
Partial pooling as an answer to the reference class problem
What should be the correct reference class?
sudippaul.substack.com
"I believe that science derives its authority from something more than mastering the pipeline from data generation to publication. Rather, it comes from interactions within a community of people trained to interrogate evidence and answer for the conclusions they draw from it."
C. Brandon Ogbunu@cbo.bsky.social · 4d agoIn my latest for @undark.org, I compare AI adoption in science to the Ship of Theseus: "If you swap out every wooden plank on a ship over time, is it still the same vessel?" I argue that science derives authority from something more than data generation + publication. undark.org/2026/09/25/o...
The last two weeks have the lowest average recorded SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels in NZ of any time since Feb 2022 (before omicron took off) poops.nz
ESR Wastewater Surveillance
poops.nz
eliminating the marsden to create an underfunded replacement ('TRF') led the govt to cap the # of apps from each uni obvious outcome: junior PIs are getting triaged more than senior PIs, so their science isn't even considered. heard today from a junior prof at UoA who didn't make the cut #nzpol
Nicola Gaston@nicgaston.bsky.social · 4mo ago#marsdenshmarsden I guess 🪦
What's behind this tidal wave of epidemics? In the largest study ever conducted on emerging infectious diseases, we show that the popular explanation - "our relationship with nature is out of balance" - doesn't hold up. Out now in Nature, after half a decade of work: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases - Nature
Emerging infectious disease outbreak risks are ubiquitous worldwide, and highest in landscapes where people, livestock and fragmented natural ecosystems coexist, but detection and data ...
nature.com
Evidence is quite important in health policy. No Really! peterkdearden.substack.com/p/on-evidenc...
on evidence in medicine
and making a better health system
peterkdearden.substack.com
an amazing new project launches today in new zealand: people can report sexual harm, and get matched with others who reported the same person. when you report, you get a lawyer - and lawyer-client privilege. for free. i profile the website, technology, charity, & law firm here: www.webworm.co/tika/
This Could Change The Way Victims Get Justice
David Farrier's Webworm looks at Alison Mau and Zoë Lawton's Tika: a new way to report sexual harm in Aotearoa, New Zealand.
webworm.co
Make New Zealand Healthy: Beware the Trojan Horse diplomaticimmunity.blog/make-new-zea...
Make New Zealand Healthy: Beware the Trojan Horse
Make New Zealand Healthy combines sound ideas about prevention and nutrition with more contestable claims about supplements, regulation and evidence. A closer look at what is inside the Trojan Horse.
diplomaticimmunity.blog
Michael Plank@michaelplanknz.bsky.social · last wk.Follow the money ‘We wrote it’: Winston Peters denies copy-paste health policy www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361...
Follow the money ‘We wrote it’: Winston Peters denies copy-paste health policy www.stuff.co.nz/politics/361...
‘We wrote it’: Winston Peters denies copy-paste health policy
Seven of the 15 descriptions in NZ First’s "Make New Zealand Healthy" policy—including a typo repeating "of vitamin"—were lifted almost verbatim from the website of the Make New Zealand Healthy charit...
stuff.co.nz
Am I right in thinking that, if Lab reversed interest deductability, the property owner would instead file those deductions against the taxable capital gain when the property is sold, so it's primarily a discussion about when tax paid rather than how much?
I suspect we’ll increasing see a return to “you can only submit if you know an insider” systems, like the old-school PNAS ‘contributed’ track. It’s a bit like we’re already seeing with the new ArXiv ‘endorsement’ system...
As Alex notes in this thread, AI doesn't "democratize" science. Rather, it compels scientists to rely on anti-egalitarian means of directing their attention.
Alex Holcombe@alexh.bsky.social · last wk.Consequences of the flood of AI manuscripts: "An early-career researcher at an unbranded institution loses the one mechanism that ever let them be read on merit — anonymous review of the work itself, however badly it functioned in practice.
A new Bayesian hierarchical model captures long-term and short-term age–sex mortality dynamics, allowing estimation and forecasting of monthly excess deaths, and showing that New Zealand had returned to pre-COVID mortality trends in 2025. 📄 www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
A BMJ investigation reports that the FDA and CDC relied on a vaccine safety signal-detection method during the COVID-19 rollout that some officials knew had limitations, potentially delaying detection of some adverse events. www.bmj.com/content/... 1/6
US officials knew covid vaccine safety system was flawed—but turned aside the FDA doctor who alerted them
US officials embraced an algorithm for detecting signals of harm from mRNA covid-19 vaccines that they knew was broken and suppressed efforts to fix it. David Willman reports Before covid-19 vaccines were rolled out to Americans in December 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assured healthcare providers that the agency was on the lookout for any harmful reactions. A key part of the CDC’s strategy was its Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which receives such reports after vaccination. “It is the nation’s frontline system for monitoring vaccine safety and the early warning system for detecting possible vaccine safety problems,” said Tom Shimabukuro, deputy director of CDC’s Immunization Safety Office, on 30 October 2020. Millions of people were to be vaccinated each week, and the CDC would rely on statistical “data mining” of the VAERS database to quickly identify any safety signals in need of further probing. Two well recognised, separate algorithms were to be used. The first involved calculating “proportional reporting ratios” (PRRs), which sought to identify types of reactions reported to VAERS disproportionately or more frequently than background rates. The second data mining technique, called “empirical bayesian,” was to be provided by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which operated VAERS jointly with the CDC, and the two agencies planned to share and discuss results.1 But in a little noticed September 2022 letter, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said that the agency did not perform PRR analyses for signals until 2022. This was more than a year into the vaccine rollout and was intended, she wrote, “to corroborate” the FDA’s approach. Instead of using the PRR and empirical bayesian methods jointly during the pandemic, Walensky explained that both the CDC and FDA instead “chose to rely” on empirical bayesian, which she characterised as “a …
bmj.com
BMJ investigation into FDA vaccine safety surveillance: what it shows and what it does not diplomaticimmunity.blog/bmj-fda-vacc...
What the BMJ Investigation Reveals About FDA Vaccine Safety Surveillance
A BMJ investigation exposed a real flaw in FDA COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance. Here is what it means for VAERS, myocarditis, masking, causation and trust.
diplomaticimmunity.blog
Possible flaws found in early US COVID vaccine safety monitoring – Expert Reaction
Possible flaws found in early US COVID vaccine safety monitoring - Expert Reaction
US officials knew their monitoring method might be missing some harmful effects of COVID vaccines, claims an investigative journalism article in a medical journal. Rare heart inflammation side…
sciencemediacentre.co.nz
sometimes being bitten is a good thing peterkdearden.substack.com/p/on-sandfli...
on Sandflies
and living in ecology
peterkdearden.substack.com
Join us for an ESCMID webinar on the ongoing Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the DRC. We’ll discuss the outbreak, potential cross-protection from Zaire ebolavirus vaccines, WHO recommendations, and ongoing studies 📅 Sept 16, 2026 ⏲️ 14:00 CEST Register👇 us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Evidence of cross protection against BDBV following vaccination against Zaire ebolavirus. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about jo...
Date & Time: 16 September 2026, 14:00–15:30 CEST This webinar was prepared by the ESCMID Vaccines Subcommittee in collaboration with the ESCMID Emerging Infections Subcommittee. Chairs: Krutika Kupp...
us06web.zoom.us
This is great, but, for context, just driving less also "saved" hundreds of millions. In Q2 2026 oil consumption was down 93 million litres (5%) compared to normal (thus "saving" $158m), while the 12k EVs sold "saved" 5 million litres.
Marc Daalder@marcdaalder.bsky.social · 2w agoElectric cars, trucks and buses are cutting New Zealand’s dependency on imported fossil fuels, saving the country hundreds of millions of dollars since the start of 2024, according to a Newsroom analysis. newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/15/e...
Fiji declares national HIV emergency – Expert Reaction
Fiji declares national HIV emergency - Expert Reaction
The Fijian government estimates that 1 in 60 adults in the country are now living with HIV, including 1 in 50 pregnant women. Due to the seriousness of the epidemic, the country has declared a…
sciencemediacentre.co.nz
Nice post by @helenp-h.bsky.social on some of the challenges in measuring the true value of vaccines and what it means for a vaccination program to be cost effective The Vaccine Value We are Not Counting diplomaticimmunity.blog/economic-val...
The economic vacine of vaccines
Vaccines need not save health-system money to be good value. Cost-effectiveness, societal benefit and hidden disease burden tell a much bigger story.
diplomaticimmunity.blog
This thread brilliantly explains the real security issues with AI. To develop it further, if you believe it's a "Terminator" type situation, you will see the "rogue" AIs and conclude that more openness - creating extra dangerous entities - is actually a bad thing, and that's why the >
Jess Miers 🦝@jmiers230.bsky.social · 3w agoI did a somewhat deep dive into the recent OpenAI and Anthropic "hacks" for an upcoming interview. IMO, the AI companies are better off running with the "rogue AI" story because the real story is actually pretty embarrassing. Like making your Wi-Fi password "wifi" embarrassing. 🧵
This is a thoughtful and extremely important declaration that everyone should read in its entirety, whether a mathematician or otherwise. It gets at the heart of human community in math, science and other forms of inquiry—and explains how AI can be detrimental to that beating heart.
"...solving problems is only a tool and proxy for achieving the primary goal of conceptual understanding and insight. Forgetting this in the world of AI may turn the tool against the primary goal."
Terence Tao@teorth.bsky.social · 3w agoA group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...
A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
mathandai.org
