Michael Plank

@michaelplanknz.bsky.social

Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/

Some brief thoughts: 1. Discourse got polarised fast, not helped by some scientists (often not directly involved in response) speculating on how they'd run country 2. Media played role here – I gave up on interviews for some outlets, because would always start "is govt is getting everything wrong?"

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall.com · 4d ago

No need for anyone to agree with me - but some of the responses to this on here reminds me just how stifling and absolutist a period in our national discourse Covid was.

Ebola may have been spreading for months in the DRC before anyone recognized it. A new reconstruction suggests the outbreak was already widespread in the gold-mining town of Mongbwalu by January. It wasn’t officially declared until 15 May. Why did no-one raise the alarm? My story for @science.org 🧪

EXCLUSIVE: Congo’s Ebola epidemic started at least 4 months before it was detected

A remote mining town gripped by fear saw hundreds of suspected cases before the government declared an outbreak, report says

science.org

The #Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak in NE DRC was likely underway for months before it was formally detected in mid-May. That's often the way with Ebola outbreaks, but the scale of the missed cases seems ... extraordinary. Terrific reporting by @kakape.bsky.social. www.science.org/content/arti...

EXCLUSIVE: Congo’s Ebola epidemic started at least 4 months before it was detected

A remote mining town gripped by fear saw hundreds of suspected cases before the government declared an outbreak, report says

science.org

Obviously nothing has pissed me off quite as much as them killing the Marsden Fund (👉 my 📌 post), but govt claiming that the Science Investment Plan does not cut funding when the plan itself says “core science and research funding is projected to decline in future years” was the icing on the cake.

Luxon wants to ‘brutally commercialise’ science, but cuts threaten its foundation

Comment from Auckland University: Decades of research funding cannot be replaced by funding the commercialisation of that science

newsroom.co.nz

Really nice work looking at the effects of "busty" infectiousness. Individual variability around R0 in the number of secondary infections fairly well understood mathematically (based on work by Lloyd-Smith et al). This provides an analogous framework for variability in *timing* of transmission

Stephen Kissler@skissler.bsky.social · last wk.

I'm excited to share a preprint that's been years in the making: the idea took shape during the COVID pandemic. Anecdotally, people would sometimes spread COVID at work but not at home, and vice versa. Why? One explanation would be if infectiousness is fleeting...

I'm excited to share a preprint that's been years in the making: the idea took shape during the COVID pandemic. Anecdotally, people would sometimes spread COVID at work but not at home, and vice versa. Why? One explanation would be if infectiousness is fleeting...

How bursty infectiousness shapes epidemic dynamics

An epidemic’s expected course is determined by the magnitude and timing of a typical person’s infectiousness — captured, in turn, by the basic reproduction number and the generation-time distribution....

medrxiv.org