4th down page hasn't flipped over to Week 3 yet but rest assured: the Packers should have gone for it (before the penalty)
how many NFL teams have had three QBs throw interceptions by Week 3
steeling myself for the monumental injustice that would be Survivor being ranked outside the top 10
The three worst players in rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats: Quinshon Judkins, -28 MarShawn Lloyd, -25 Jacory Croskey-Merritt, -25
Top 10 players by pass rush wins this season. -Jeffery Simmons, dear god -Dallas Turner has arrived -Boye Mafe being what Bengals need, keeping up PRWR with expanded playing time! -I thought Bradley Chubb was totally washed and was very critical of that signing. Looking like a bad take!
Chiefs should have called timeout after first down. (I know easy to say after seeing 3rd down but they should have -- Colts are not time-constrainted right now. Chiefs are for next possession!)
Commanders should go for 2! Down 8 rule, plus a field goal.
154 total air yards (complete + incomplete) for Adonai Mitchell today, per Next Gen Stats.
Interesting game of timeout chicken. Jets scared Packers were going to go for it and didn't want to call TO. But Packers were bluffing.
Model didn't like it. But it also doesn't know they're facing Tyson Bagent in the rain (it can't adjust for in-game QB change) so can't hate on it like I normally would I don't think
Steven Kelly@stevinok.bsky.social · 4d ago@sethwalder.bsky.social , thoughts on kicking to go up 6 there for MN?
Packers should go for 2. They're right at hte starting point of the down 4 go for 2 range.
Model preferred Jets go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Packers 9
Delayed here but yes: this was a horrible decision by the Texans. 25 percentage point difference between the breakeven rate and conversion probability! You can't justify kicking here.
thought it was funny that against the literal zero-man packers pass rush at end of half that breece hall still opted to stay in to block
Jalen Carter (98) lines up well off the ball, jumps at hard count but doesn't cross LOS but gets JC Latham to move in hopes of drawing defensive penalty. False start called. I don't know if this was intentional or not. But would be a good little gambit for defenses to try occasionally!
Was curious about Falcons end around on 4th-and-1. Was it a bad playcall? Last 10 years, outside runs by WRs on 3rd/4th and 1: 73% conversion rate. Better 4th down play than 3rd down: certainly more risk to lose yards than normal run, but all that matters on 4th is conversion chance.
Sacks, tackles, D/ST touchdowns and even a little offense: have plenty of suggestions in Week 2 best bets alongside @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and Matt Bowen! www.espn.com/espn/betting...
NFL Week 2 betting guide: Top plays for Sunday afternoon's games
Our experts dive into the odds and player props for Week 2 and offer their betting tips and favorite plays.
espn.com
I ranked every team's backup quarterback, from 1-32! Also called: my absurdly optimistic view of Jalon Daniels. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Ranking all 32 backup NFL quarterbacks for the 2026 season
We stacked the best No. 2 quarterbacks across the league, including Mac Jones and even a few backups who have already been forced to play in 2026.
espn.com
Week 2 best bets article is up! (Will add most defensive props later) Each week in here you will find my record in the column for the season. Something I feel strongly about: if I'm going to do betting content, I'm going to track and share results -- win or lose. www.espn.com/espn/betting...
My fair value price for Alim McNeill over 0.25 sacks is +237, fwiw.
Going to be doing a thing on Youtube each week during the season where we spend a few minutes breaking down the best game of the week. Today, @sethwalder.bsky.social and I break down what to watch for in Bills-Lions www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-oE...
High-Scoring Shootout at Highmark? Lions-Bills Preview | The Bill Barnwell Show
YouTube video by NFL on ESPN
youtube.com
New podcast: Week 1 happenings that made us change our offseason priors with @sethwalder.bsky.social! youtu.be/s1stgqk8l98
Where We Got It Wrong This Offseason | The Bill Barnwell Show
YouTube video by NFL on ESPN
youtu.be
This was a 12-yard completion to Kendrick Bourne but Chargers were fortunate it wasn't a TD to Michael Wilson (14) instead
Kenneth Walker has 35 rush yards over expected tonight, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He finished the 2025 regular season with 54.
Humphrey is the best center in the league but if he starts to have snap issues regularly again then I think -- without having taken a real look at it -- that would very quickly erase any gains from his blocking
Should be a little less confident than this because it was a long 1. Model still leaned go on 4th-and-2 though.
