For an update on the GCC economies and the US-Iran war, check out my new conversation with the excellent Joeri Schasfoort on his money&macro podcast: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKE...

How are the Gulf economies holding up? | Prof. Steffen Hertog

YouTube video by Money & Macro Talks

youtube.com

Want an update on how the GCC economies are faring during the current war? Have a look at my interview with the excellent Joeri Schasfoort on his @MoneyMacro podcast: youtu.be/dJSPpBxd-S4?... open.spotify.com/episode/1yzH...

How are Gulf economies holding up? prof. Steffen Hertog

YouTube video by Money & Macro Talks

youtu.be

A short piece by yours truly in which I argue that the current war is not just about control over oil and gas flows, but was itself plausibly caused by hydrocarbons rents, as these have lowered the thresholds of agression for both the US and Iran: blogs.lse.ac.uk/government/2...

The deep ways in which oil has shaped the Iran war - LSE Government Blog

Professor Steffen Hertog argues that the Iran–US war is fundamentally shaped by oil, not just strategically but causally, because oil rents lower the political and economic costs of aggression on both...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Check out my FT op-ed on why the current war and its aftermath are a bigger concern for the UAE's economy than the less globalized Saudi one - www.ft.com/content/e7af...

How hard will war hit the Gulf’s economies?

The highly globalised UAE has felt the impact of conflict more than insular Saudi Arabia

ft.com

Interested in oil politics or the impact of populism on IR? Here's a recording of my recent inaugural lecture at the LSE on how a combination of oil rents and populist leadership can lead to radical foreign policies, based on work with Ferdinand Eibl: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvJJ...

How oil rents fuel populist foreign policy | LSE Event

YouTube video by LSE

youtube.com

In London this Wednesday & looking for light entertainment? Come to my inaugural lecture as (full) professor at the LSE at 6:30pm. I'll discuss how a combination of oil rents and populist leadership leads to radical foreign policy, based on work with Ferdinand Eibl: www.lse.ac.uk/events/21-ja...

Natural resource rents and radical policy | Steffen Hertog

6:30pm Wed 21 Jan | Steffen Hertog | Ticket Required | Free public event at LSE

lse.ac.uk

Check out my interview with the indomitable Dahlia Rahaimy of Saudi Times on how the new generation of Saudis is navigating a changing labour market and social contract: sauditimes.org/narratives/c...

Steffen Hertog: The Quiet Reordering of Saudi Society

German economist Steffen Hertog discusses Saudi Arabia’s labour reforms, private sector adaptation, and the unseen shifts redefining work, ambition, and the good life.

sauditimes.org

My friend Dr. Joanne Liu, former international president of Doctors Without Borders, was cancelled at NYU. The vice-president in education asked to see her powerpoint, prior to her lecture. One slide showed the number of humanitarian workers who died in Gaza. NYU cancelled the event.

Video: The Opportunities and Risks of Industrial Policy in the Gulf with Fuad Hasanov, @shertog.bsky.social, and Tim Callen. agsiw.org/programs/the...

The Opportunities and Risks of Industrial Policy in the Gulf

On March 18, AGSIW hosted a discussion on industrialization in the Gulf.

agsiw.org

Correction: The 18 March event on industrial policy in the GCC monarchies will be on Zoom, so no need to be in Washington DC to join Fuad Hasanov, Tim Callen and me for our discussion: tinyurl.com/rwc8n737 (1pm ET)

In case you were wondering: Everything you type into ChatGPT is stored forever and can be made public www.newscientist.com/article/2472...

Revealed: How the UK tech secretary uses ChatGPT for policy advice

New Scientist has used freedom of information laws to obtain the ChatGPT records of Peter Kyle, the UK's technology secretary, in what is believed to be a world-first use of such legislation

newscientist.com

New article out this week with @shertog.bsky.social. We discuss how technology and energy transitions, along with structrural changes in the international system, might provide openings for a new Gulf growth model. Available in Arabic too. prosyn.org/PMnsTdm

A New Gulf Growth Model | by Faris Al-Sulayman & Steffen Hertog - Project Syndicate

Faris Al-Sulayman & Steffen Hertog explain why the region’s governments are well positioned to capitalize on recent geo-economic trends.

prosyn.org

If you're in Washington DC on 18 March, consider joining Fuad Hasanov, Tim Callen and me for a discussion about the new era of industrial policy in the GCC monarchies: agsiw.org/programs/the... (1pm at AGSIW, 1050 Connecticut Avenue)

The Opportunities and Risks of Industrial Policy in the Gulf

On March 18, AGSIW will host a discussion on industrialization in the Gulf.

agsiw.org

Are in Boston on 13 March? If yes, consider coming to my 4:30 pm Harvard's Middle East seminar talk about how divisions between insiders and outsiders hold back Arab economies (for location see below). I'll discuss continuing work building on this 2022 monograph: tinyurl.com/9vr2phhn

New paper accepted by Studies in Comparative International Development, just in time for Xmas! I investigate the growing divide in GCC labour markets between “insider” citizens holding a secure public sector job and “outsider” citizens who don't: tinyurl.com/575w4rtz (ungated)

Me rereading my own code from 2 months ago:

“thanks so much for the feedback”

La fameuse fenêtre d’Overton

New paper by yours truly, Gudrun Østby, Adrian Arellano and Thomas Hegghammer about links between economic deprivation and terrorism & how to better empirically identify them now published in International Studies Review: lnkd.in/e64sw9m4 (non-paywalled preprint available here: lnkd.in/eQkUq2ad)

Check out the new (open access) APSR article by Ferdinand Eibl and me about why some oil-rich states build generous welfare states while others become kleptocracies: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...