Adam Baron

@adammbaron.bsky.social

Former niche social media personality. Baltimorean. Calabrese. Aspiring gadfly. Future Security Program Fellow, @newamerica.org; Advisor on Yemen and the Gulf, @hdcentre.org; obituary writer, British-Yemeni Society Journal.

Adam Baron, a fellow at US-based think tank New America, said the Houthi offensive since Thursday had "shattered much of what was left of Yemen's tenuous ceasefire." "Things increasingly appear to be on a path to escalation with few potential off-ramps," he added. www.rfi.fr/en/internati...

More than 140 killed in latest Yemen clashes: military sources

Fighting between Yemeni government forces and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in southwest Yemen killed more than 140 combatants between midday Saturday and early Sunday morning, military sources said.

rfi.fr

The line "there is no military solution to [insert conflict]" is a classic cliche and, certainly been used plenty of times (including by this writer) with regards to Yemen. But its hard to imagine a more fertile time for a peace accord than the past few years (regional escalation notwithstanding).

Fighting between the Yemeni army and the Houthis is now raging in parts of Marib, Hudayda and Taiz province with anti-Houthi forces launching a sustained counter-offensive over the past few days.

Continued escalation in Yemen as the Houthis target key areas of Taiz. Civilians caught in the crossfire as usual; the key road connecting Mokha (on the coast) and Taiz city at increasing risk of being cut off.

Saudi military spox Turki al-Maliki announces strikes on Houthi targets in Hudayda governorate. Notably, statement frames strikes as avoiding ports themselves (ie Hudayda, Ras Issa, Salif, suggesting an aim to maintain a degree of controlled calibration.

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Beyond the question of attacks on Red Sea shipping, internal fronts also heating up in Yemen. Intensifying clashes between the Houthis and pro-government forces on the key front line area of Marib; Houthi surveilance drone shot down by anti-Houthi forces south of the port of Hudayda.

The current moment in Yemen--to my gut at least--most resembles late Feb/early March 2015. Red lines crossed, new ones tested. Communication channels breaking down. Rising risks of misunderstandings. Increasing assessments from key quarters that a shift to open conflict would serve their interests.

Hard to escape a sinking feeling that things are about to heat up around the Bab al-Mandab. Houthi messaging growing louder, as is chatter about (re)deployments on the coast.

Is today a turning point for Yemen? So much of the conflict has been a bit of a game of chicken, particularly over the past few years, as different players test each others' red lines. "Stable in its instability" is an oft-used phrase--but one that arguably downplays the high risk of miscalculation.

Airstrikes now reportedly targeting Hudayda airport as well in an effort to prevent an apparent attempt by the aircraft carrying the Houthi delegation from Tehran to divert and land there.

Houthi-aligned al-Masira tv reporting Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport ahead of the expected arrival of a plane carrying Houthi leaders back from Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran.

Rounding up some translations of Count Binface that have been appearing in foreign press 🇷🇴 Romanian: Contele Tomberonez 🇫🇷 French: Comte Tête-de-Poubelle (bin-head, more accurate than bin-face) 🇮🇹 Italian: Conte Faccia-da-Bidone 🇪🇸 Spanish: "un hombre con un cubo de basura en la cabeza" (!) Cont...