David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
Deputy Director, New America Future Security program
Count me on the extremely skeptical side of AQ capabilities / success q of this debate. Also think even if you view threat as high, it’s tough to argue that AQ now is Bin Laden’s AQ or a follow on of his vision. That said, think other threats have increased. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
What Happened to al-Qaeda?
Twenty-five years after 9/11, analysts can’t decide if the terrorist organization is all but defunct or more threatening than ever.
theatlantic.com
Lot of focus on apparent polling misses. Seems rightly. But also think another key dynamic is the treatment of progressive media orgs and social media that had clear preferences as having analysis not deeply tainted by their priors. Also think this was a clear issue in other races too this cycle.
Something that occurred to me this morning: with all the strikes we’ve done on Iran, we couldn’t have also found and struck Saif al-Adel?
Man Says I Mean Meme
ALT: Man Says I Mean Meme
static.klipy.com
In a couple of days we will hit (assuming no new strikes or reports of prior strikes) 3 months since the last US strike on ISIS in Somalia. Prior to 2025, that wouldn’t be very notable but it likely reflects some kind of major change in U.S. activity under this admin.
The U.S. has announced a July 30th strike in Somalia. It came 15 days after the last declared strike. And like other recent strikes was vs. Al Shabaab in the south. Still no strikes vs. ISIS since early May. www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
This is actual antisemitism - not because it’s criticizing Israel, but because it attributes agency over all migration to Israel, with no evidence. This is just the Great Replacement conspiracy, and it is ultimately far-right. Such conspiracism is going to destroy the left, if it isn’t policed.
The U.S. has announced a July 30th strike in Somalia. It came 15 days after the last declared strike. And like other recent strikes was vs. Al Shabaab in the south. Still no strikes vs. ISIS since early May. www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
Again this is what the video that seems likely fake that people were happy to mobilize and campaign admitted picking up from Reddit wo checking seems to have looked like when circulating on Reddit. But sure let’s hear from people to lazy to check on whether Israel First here is antisemitic.
Posting now that I look at it seems quite possible it’s fake but I didn’t bother to look into it and can’t be bothered now despite good faith criticism of antisemitism just like the campaign I’m defending is some wild telling on yourself shit.
Why endlessness is not about duration but about this specific quality whether or not it is rapidly brought to an end by changing objectives. Also why I hate that people gravitate to the new-fangled and temporally focused “forever wars” language and not the well established “endless war” frame.
Ken Schultz@kschultz.bsky.social · 4d agoWhen you are defeated in the sense of “unable to achieve your goals” but not defeated in the sense of “unable to continue military operations” then you are perpetually “headed for defeat” until you decide to end it. That’s how you get forever wars.
I hesitate to note this given the scale of other escalations, but folks are underrating the chance that US strikes in Somalia fall to low or even near zero numbers even as the pace has been unprecedentedly high this past year and a half or so.
Let’s be clear, it is not some coincidence, novelty, or mere symptom of online politics that a segment of Palestinian and of Spanish politics even on the left has deeply far right politics around immigration that nests easily into far right narratives.
Find it a bit odd how much in the recent week or two of Iran tensions people have drawn sharp lines or used language of novelty for things that are not new or at most an intensification of already existing dynamics.
AFRICOM commander seems to be sounding a very explicit caution that political infighting and any use of CT resources for other purposes could lead to US withdrawal of support.
David Sterman@davidsterman.bsky.social · 4d agoWorth a watch. youtu.be/vTNX1l_lDik?...
Wondering will the left cast out its Great Replacement theorists? Because this is the exact same theory as the right wing theory that led to murders at U.S. synagogues. And from folks who have been shooting the shit on major progressive platforms recently.
Joe Stieb@joestieb.bsky.social · 5d agoJavier Bardem has lost his goddamn mind. Protocols level insanity.
New Speakers Announced for our 12th Annual Future Security Forum - this year examining lessons from a quarter century of post-9/11 counterterrorism and warfare. www.newamerica.org/events/fsf-9...
12th Annual Future Security Forum
newamerica.org
New Speakers Announced for our 12th Annual Future Security Forum - this year examining lessons from a quarter century of post-9/11 counterterrorism and warfare. www.newamerica.org/events/fsf-9...
12th Annual Future Security Forum
newamerica.org
The converse question is the one that should trouble us, I think: what kind of shared moral architecture can emerge in an international system where the most powerful state does not present as a liberal democracy
One thing about Trump’s escalation of wars this term is that they are more disconnected from conditions on the ground. most notable in Iran and drug boat strikes. In term one strikes escalated in large part due to conditions on the ground. Even exceptions like Soleimani far more tied than now.
Don’t want to overread. Could be a broad reading of Islamist or could be just general reference to conflict zones. But this paragraph’s Yemen reference in Haberman and Swan’s “Regime Change” stood out to me given qs of covert U.S. strikes in Yemen against AQ. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...
Just noting that one of the big challenges for this article other than qs about collective action problems/ who enforces is the following: There are significant tensions between efforts to respond to proxy warfare issue and efforts to tighten self defense. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
What should replace the American-led world order? | Aslı Bâli and Samuel Moyn
The task now is to stop mourning the old order and build the foundations of the new multipolar world
theguardian.com
In 2026 so far, the Trump admin has bombed: —Iran—14,000+ strikes; 1 JSOC mission —Somalia—strikes on 66 days —Caribbean/E. Pacific—31 strikes —Iraq—strikes on 26+ days —Syria—strikes on 18 days —Arabian Sea—9 strikes —Nigeria—strikes on 3 days; 1 JSOC raid —Venezuela—strikes on 2 days; 1 JSOC raid
Wesley Morgan@wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 7mo agoYear-end tally of Trump admin combat actions in 2025: —Yemen—1,000+ strikes* —Somalia—140+ strikes, 1 ground raid** —Syria—78+ strikes, 3 ground raids*** —Iran—3 B-2 strikes —Iraq—1 strike —Nigeria—1 set of TLAM strikes —Caribbean—11 strikes —Eastern Pacific—20 strikes —Venezuela—1 known CIA strike
Don’t want to overread. Could be a broad reading of Islamist or could be just general reference to conflict zones. But this paragraph’s Yemen reference in Haberman and Swan’s “Regime Change” stood out to me given qs of covert U.S. strikes in Yemen against AQ. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...
“From February through April 2026, there were more than 600 attempted attacks on U.S. citizens and facilities by Iran-aligned terrorist militias in Iraq” www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC...
centcom.mil
Approaching two weeks since the last declared strike in Somalia. And coming up on twelve weeks since the last declared strike against ISIS in Somalia. Of course, strike announcements tend to lag a bit and the lags has grown somewhat recently (is my sense).
'The Pentagon revealed Saturday that more than 600 troops have been injured in the conflict with Iran, more than 200 more than previously revealed publicly.'
Pentagon reveals hundreds of new Iran war casualties
The Defense Department says more than 600 troops have been wounded in the Iran war, close to 200 more than previously disclosed.
taskandpurpose.com
Very notable that despite Mamdani’s kicking her to the curb there’s been near zero accountability for her dead end defenders let alone the broader acceptance.
Joe Stieb@joestieb.bsky.social · 2w agoYeah, this is what Hitler believed. Like this is very literally what Nazis believed.
Yeah, this is what Hitler believed. Like this is very literally what Nazis believed.
