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Michael Flynn

@flynnpolsci.bsky.social

Troop deployments. Security cooperation. New Yorker in the Midwest. Semi-competent Bayesian stats enthusiast. Slowly becoming less bad at jiu jitsu. Impatient woodworker. #polisky #rstats #dataviz

679 Posts2561 Follower2156 Folgt
Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 3w ago

I’m looking for recommendations/examples of papers that compare model fit and predictive performance for bundles of different predictor variable groupings rather than focusing on causal effects for individual variables. Preferably from social sciences or medicine. I appreciate suggestions! #rstats

Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · last mo.

30% Research 30% Teaching 10% Service 10% Administration 20% Jealously guarding all of the decent furniture items I’ve acquired over the years, whether through inheritance, theft, or one-on-one combat.

Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃@mzloteanu.bsky.social · last mo.

#statstab #574 When the Mean is Misleading: a Guide to Ordered Regression for Meaningfully Modeling Ordinal Outcomes Thoughts: The "it's fine to analyse likert/ordinal data with t-test" camp is not doing themselves any favours #ordinal #likert #probit #regression link.springer.com/article/10.1...

When the Mean is Misleading: a Guide to Ordered Regression for Meaningfully Modeling Ordinal Outcomes - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Objectives We demonstrate the utility of ordered regression models for analyzing ordinal outcomes frequently encountered in criminology, comparing their predictive accuracy and estimation against conv...

link.springer.com

Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · last mo.

It’s extremely weird that Amazon, a company that kind of built itself around fast two-day shipping, takes over a month to receive and process returns from its own network of return drop sites. I bet the credit card companies love it though.

Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · last mo.

I wonder if the rush and overhyping with which AI has been sold to large organizations to help generate capital for tech companies will cause a backlash as it fails to fulfill its most fantastical promises. I also wonder if other organizations like universities will take note.

Ford hired AI and sacked humans. It backfired badly

‘We didn’t pay as much attention as we should have to the experience of our most knowledgeable engineers,’ says automaker

the-independent.com

Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I’d like to see the originalist argument that manufacturing and agricultural production are distinct from commerce in a country whose very existence was based on the production of agricultural and manufactured goods for commercial exchange.

Matt Ford@mford.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Thomas says in a concurring opinion that the Commerce Clause only allows Congress to regulate interstate “commerce,” not “manufacturing” or “agriculture.” (????)

JUSTICE THOMAS, concurring. I agree with the Court’s interpretation of the Federal In- secticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act and its applica- tion of our preemption precedents. I therefore join its opin- ion in full. I write separately to call attention to some of the underlying constitutional infirmities in the Act. First, the Act likely exceeds Congress’s authority under the Commerce Clause, which authorizes Congress to regu- late “Commerce . . . among the several States.” Art. I, §8, cl. 3. This power allows Congress to regulate “selling, buy- ing, and bartering” across state lines. United States v. Lopez, 514 U. S. 549, 585 (1995) (THOMAS, J., concurring). It does not allow Congress to regulate “agriculture” or “manufacturing,” activities entirely “separate” from “com- merce.”
Michael Flynn@flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Jesus. I had to go look at this. I bought 1TB Samsung T7 just over a year ago for $99 and it’s listed for $274 now.

Aaron Stewart-Ahn@badideas.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Cannot fucking believe an external 4TB SSD drive that cost me $200 last year is now $1100. Had to check receipts to make sure. They’re really out there trying to keep you from having a PC, phone, or a gaming console so they can have hallucinating, polluting chatbots that drop bombs on kids’ schools.