At this point grass is green, but tensions are so high, both sides in Mali (and likely the infamous third) are bracing for a showdown surpassing April and July, which already were unprecedented in scale.

In a new analysis for @warfrontsweekly.bsky.social, I am getting more in detail of what happened in Berlin two weeks ago, when Abdul B, a suspected Islamic State jihadi rammed his van into the crowd, killing one person (from Poland) and injuring dozens. fronts.co/article/the-...

The Berlin Attack is Part of a Broader Pattern. Europe Needs to Wake Up to The Growing Threat

Fronts analysis of The Berlin Attack is Part of a Broader Pattern.

fronts.co

I commented it in more details and quantity on Twitter, but Berlin attack case looks worse the more time passes. I am actually astonished the German intelligence services conducted such an atrocious fuck up, in addition to what we already know re German court releasing Abdul B to undergo therapy.

Puntland and US have agreed to expand AFRICOM's base in Bosaso to better tackle the ongoing security concerns, including Islamic State. Good info for once. IS is trying to bounce back there and the amount of smuggling across the Aden Gulf/piracy resurgence is off the charts.

Lowkey, last month may have been the bloodiest for Niger ever since President Bazoum was deposed in July 2023, with Islamic State inflicting absolutely horrible casualties upon the state But there is so much going on in the region, it stays under the radar. Astonishing in a way.

For my Polish audience, my summary of what we know of Berlin attack case (spoiler - Germans fked up). No idea if Eng followers can use subtitles so for now it stays in Polish. Will try to make a standalone Eng this weekend. www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTi1...

Atak w Berlinie, blamaż sędziów niemieckich i ostatnia sytuacja bezpieczeństwa w Europie

YouTube video by Paweł Wójcik - dżihadem przez świat

youtube.com

Second part 🧵 The death of first ISGS/ISSP emir marked an end to the first part of Islamic State evolution. War with al-Qaeda had already been raging on for over a year, IS patrols were sighted as far as Benin/Togo - Islamic State sends a senior commander from another wilayat...

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 3w ago

A bit late 🧵. So, when looking at the Sahel, one cannot help but spot the behemoth that is JNIM, arguably the most powerful al-Qaeda affiliate atm. I personally think they are very short distance from cousin in Somalia. However, it’s Islamic State being an elephant in the room.

Second part 🧵 The death of first ISGS/ISSP emir marked an end to the first part of Islamic State evolution. War with al-Qaeda had already been raging on for over a year, IS patrols were sighted as far as Benin/Togo - Islamic State sends a senior commander from another wilayat...

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 3w ago

A bit late 🧵. So, when looking at the Sahel, one cannot help but spot the behemoth that is JNIM, arguably the most powerful al-Qaeda affiliate atm. I personally think they are very short distance from cousin in Somalia. However, it’s Islamic State being an elephant in the room.

A bit late 🧵. So, when looking at the Sahel, one cannot help but spot the behemoth that is JNIM, arguably the most powerful al-Qaeda affiliate atm. I personally think they are very short distance from cousin in Somalia. However, it’s Islamic State being an elephant in the room.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

Debuting at Hudson, with a new analysis tackling the problem of the Islamic State Sahel province, co-authored with Lucas Webber. "Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province" www.hudson.org/terrorism/lo...

A bit late 🧵. So, when looking at the Sahel, one cannot help but spot the behemoth that is JNIM, arguably the most powerful al-Qaeda affiliate atm. I personally think they are very short distance from cousin in Somalia. However, it’s Islamic State being an elephant in the room.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

Debuting at Hudson, with a new analysis tackling the problem of the Islamic State Sahel province, co-authored with Lucas Webber. "Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province" www.hudson.org/terrorism/lo...

Quite a development in Afghanistan - Yaftal district in Badakhshan province was allegedly overrun by Tajik anti-Taliban insurgents with Taliban officials forced to flee. Given the regional dynamics, anti-Taliban revolt was bound to surge. #Afghanistan

If you think of what I do valuable, consider supporting in some ways as depicted below, substack, paypal, even if one coffee. Any help always appreciated, and I am thankful for anyone who decided to pledge something monthly. ko-fi.com/saladinaldro...

Buy Paweł Wójcik a Coffee

Become a supporter of Paweł Wójcik today!

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Sixth day is ending. Tommorow, nr 7. No end in sight for the biggest battle in years for Mali and the Sahel, in what has long become something else other than simply defending or conquering a strategic location. Result so far? Inconclusive.

Sixth day is ending. Tommorow, nr 7. No end in sight for the biggest battle in years for Mali and the Sahel, in what has long become something else other than simply defending or conquering a strategic location. Result so far? Inconclusive.

Debuting at Hudson, with a new analysis tackling the problem of the Islamic State Sahel province, co-authored with Lucas Webber. "Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province" www.hudson.org/terrorism/lo...

Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province

On March 25, 2026, Spanish and Moroccan authorities announced the arrest of a small Islamic State cell operating in both countries. Based between Tangiers in Morrocco and Mallorca in Spain, the three-...

hudson.org

Debuting at Hudson, with a new analysis tackling the problem of the Islamic State Sahel province, co-authored with Lucas Webber. "Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province" www.hudson.org/terrorism/lo...

Local Expansion, Transnational Interests? The Evolution of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province

On March 25, 2026, Spanish and Moroccan authorities announced the arrest of a small Islamic State cell operating in both countries. Based between Tangiers in Morrocco and Mallorca in Spain, the three-...

hudson.org

My latest analysis of the situation for @WarFrontsWeekly and the context of why Russia and Mali on one side and Tuaregs with al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM on the other are fighting what seems to be the most important battle of last years in the Sahel. Open access. fronts.co/article/mali...

Mali Proves It. Russia's Africa Strategy is Collapsing.

Coordinated rebel attacks across Mali are exposing the limits of Russia's security strategy and the fragility of Bamako's northern campaign.

fronts.co

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

Highlighting how important is this battle - not only it entered 5th day with a clash on open field...another Russian convoy is coming and is trying to reach Anefis by force. Huge developments. Little town has become a symbol of the most brutal exchange of fire to date. #Mali

My latest analysis of the situation for @WarFrontsWeekly and the context of why Russia and Mali on one side and Tuaregs with al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM on the other are fighting what seems to be the most important battle of last years in the Sahel. Open access. fronts.co/article/mali...

Mali Proves It. Russia's Africa Strategy is Collapsing.

Coordinated rebel attacks across Mali are exposing the limits of Russia's security strategy and the fragility of Bamako's northern campaign.

fronts.co

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

Highlighting how important is this battle - not only it entered 5th day with a clash on open field...another Russian convoy is coming and is trying to reach Anefis by force. Huge developments. Little town has become a symbol of the most brutal exchange of fire to date. #Mali

Highlighting how important is this battle - not only it entered 5th day with a clash on open field...another Russian convoy is coming and is trying to reach Anefis by force. Huge developments. Little town has become a symbol of the most brutal exchange of fire to date. #Mali

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

The battle of Anefis between the rebel coalition of JNIM and FLA against the government side supported by Russian military continues. Tuaregs release a new video of this time four FPV strikes against immobile targets in the camp the battle for entered 4th day today. #Mali

The battle of Anefis between the rebel coalition of JNIM and FLA against the government side supported by Russian military continues. Tuaregs release a new video of this time four FPV strikes against immobile targets in the camp the battle for entered 4th day today. #Mali

Anefis. Watched, monitored, bombed and as seen, with Russian and Mali army soldiers in attention, in a wake of inevitable approaching. Situation is completely hopeless at this point. JNIM and FLA are coming.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

According to several reports, Gao convoy is regrouping in another location after brief withdrawal, with FLA and JNIM pursuing them. Tonight there should be a third battle. Russian gambit at Anefis yesterday may be the start of a comprehensive doom tommorow.

Anefis. Watched, monitored, bombed and as seen, with Russian and Mali army soldiers in attention, in a wake of inevitable approaching. Situation is completely hopeless at this point. JNIM and FLA are coming.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

According to several reports, Gao convoy is regrouping in another location after brief withdrawal, with FLA and JNIM pursuing them. Tonight there should be a third battle. Russian gambit at Anefis yesterday may be the start of a comprehensive doom tommorow.

According to several reports, Gao convoy is regrouping in another location after brief withdrawal, with FLA and JNIM pursuing them. Tonight there should be a third battle. Russian gambit at Anefis yesterday may be the start of a comprehensive doom tommorow.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

No escape for the Russian servicemen involved. We are waiting for news from heavily bombarded Anefis. There are rumors that Islamic State may be amassing forces again, looking for similar breach that allowed them to briefly seize Menaka and Labbezanga on April 25.

No escape for the Russian servicemen involved. We are waiting for news from heavily bombarded Anefis. There are rumors that Islamic State may be amassing forces again, looking for similar breach that allowed them to briefly seize Menaka and Labbezanga on April 25.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

The Tuaregs from FLA have shot down a Russian helicopters during the battle against the Gao convoy in the past few hours. First confirmed visuals, there will likely be more if Anefis is cleared. Looks like tonight victory shifts towards the rebel coalition. #Mali

The Tuaregs from FLA have shot down a Russian helicopters during the battle against the Gao convoy in the past few hours. First confirmed visuals, there will likely be more if Anefis is cleared. Looks like tonight victory shifts towards the rebel coalition. #Mali

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

UPDATE: FLA claims to have repelled the Russian military convoy from Gao, in statement saying it has suffered major losess before withdrawing. If true, then JNIM and FLA will be aiming to massacre the Russians holed up in Anefis. Next hours key for Mali's future.

UPDATE: FLA claims to have repelled the Russian military convoy from Gao, in statement saying it has suffered major losess before withdrawing. If true, then JNIM and FLA will be aiming to massacre the Russians holed up in Anefis. Next hours key for Mali's future.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

Two battles are ongoing, both of incredible but underestimated importance - first, with the FLA/JNIM coalition pushing to annihilate and finish off the Russian military camp in Anefis, the second, with a Gao convoy fhat has reportedly already lost several vehicles...

Two battles are ongoing, both of incredible but underestimated importance - first, with the FLA/JNIM coalition pushing to annihilate and finish off the Russian military camp in Anefis, the second, with a Gao convoy fhat has reportedly already lost several vehicles...

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

After the night, situation in northern Mali is clear - Anefis is in the hands of the rebel coalition, Russians and Malians are barricaded in the military camp. However, this time as opposed to April 25,gov side will stay and try to fight. On the way is a Russian convoy from Gao.

After the night, situation in northern Mali is clear - Anefis is in the hands of the rebel coalition, Russians and Malians are barricaded in the military camp. However, this time as opposed to April 25,gov side will stay and try to fight. On the way is a Russian convoy from Gao.

Russians may have lost a few helicopters today (rumors involve also a SU downing), a claim that needs verification, but seems that one was indeed shot down during the attempted evacuation of wounded Russian soldiers in Anefis. Chaos continues, so difficult to ascertain. #Mali

Judging from new videos, it should be safe to say that JNIM/FLA coalition won the battle of Anefis, with multiple vehicles rolling in unopposed.

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺@saladinaldronni.bsky.social · last mo.

According to FLA, the battle in Anefis continues, but is on the verge of being won, which if proven right, will mark a success of the operation. It seems that Anefis is indeed the highlight of the second round, though other battles or Inghimasi ops shouldn't be underestimated.