Anton Spisak
@antonspisak.bsky.social
Senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform. Likes good coffee, long runs, and the Paris Review.
Services has also taken a hit with exports to the EU being 7% lower and imports 19% down. The worst affected sectors were travel (down 39%), transport (down 21%) & financial services (down 24%). What do you think has driven these changes & what could reverse the trend? #TradeFactOfTheMonth #Brexit
“The costs of leaving the EU have been cumulative.” @johnspringford.bsky.social and @antonspisak.bsky.social write on the economic costs of #Brexit, as part of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social’s new essay collection marking 10 years since the Brexit referendum. buff.ly/i9gEX8a
It's been a busy Brexit week, but one issue has received much less coverage than I'd expected: how Brexit has changed Northern Ireland, and what it means for the debate about Irish reunification. Join us next week for a great event with @otoolematthew.bsky.social and @adampayne26.bsky.social.
Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · last mo.📅 Join us – 1/7/26: Hybrid discussion on 'Brexit ten years on: Northern Ireland and its future' with @otoolematthew.bsky.social and @adampayne26.bsky.social Email events@cer.eu for info & registration
Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, we've published a collection of wonderful essays @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, reflecting on the past decade, discussing where UK-EU relations stand today, and looking at what comes next. Some of the highlights: www.cer.eu/ten-years-af...
Ten years after the Brexit referendum
A new CER essay collection reflects on what the past decade has meant for the UK, the EU, and the future of UK-EU relations.
cer.eu
Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, we've published a collection of wonderful essays @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, reflecting on the past decade, discussing where UK-EU relations stand today, and looking at what comes next. Some of the highlights: www.cer.eu/ten-years-af...
Ten years after the Brexit referendum
A new CER essay collection reflects on what the past decade has meant for the UK, the EU, and the future of UK-EU relations.
cer.eu
More detail on the impacts of Brexit on different sectors of the British economy — from our latest study with @johnspringford.bsky.social:
Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 2mo ago#Brexit has hurt trade across most sectors of the UK economy, find @johnspringford.bsky.social and @antonspisak.bsky.social, using a state-of-the-art gravity model. Read their new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper here: buff.ly/5r48H6b
Striking fact about the Makerfield election: left-right divide has barely budged in the last three GEs (7 years). Lab+LD+Green have gained 53-56 per cent of the votes each time; Con+Ref+Restore 43-47. All the action has been voter movements within each tribe. (Table from @peterkellner.bsky.social)
Very interesting new Brexit research here from @johnspringford.bsky.social and @antonspisak.bsky.social which a) shows bigger effects on services exports than previously thought and b) disaggregates the impact of leaving single market + customs union: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Rejoining customs union would not fix damage caused by Brexit, research finds
Exclusive: Economists find Brexit caused 12% depression in UK exports, most of which is due to leaving single market
theguardian.com
New research out today with @johnspringford.bsky.social. Ten years after the referendum, we estimated the costs of Brexit to UK trade – and identified how much of the damage comes from leaving the single market versus the customs union. Not an easy exercise, but we’ve had some striking results 👇
John Springford@johnspringford.bsky.social · 2mo agoNew research from me and @antonspisak.bsky.social – we identify how much Brexit has reduced goods and services trade with the EU, and what’s responsible: leaving the customs union or the single market? Answers: large hit to trade, mostly due to single market exit 🧵 www.cer.eu/insights/cos...
@jdportes.bsky.social and I have updated our estimates of the impact of Brexit and the new migration regime on immigration, now that we have new data for 2025. 1
I’m surprised to see this from YouGov. It’s a perfect example of how not to ask a polling question. “Clean energy” can be – and in most instances is – “cheaper energy”.
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 2mo ago65% of Britons agree with Tony Blair's call for the government to stop prioritising "clean energy over cheaper energy" Prioritise preventing increases in energy bills: 65% (no change from Oct 2025) Prioritise removing fossil fuels from energy supply: 24% (+1) yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
It's the final week to apply for a number of fantastic roles we have @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social:
Anton Spisak@antonspisak.bsky.social · 3mo agoPolicy jobs! We have several excellent – and rare – openings at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in London and Brussels. 1. Senior research fellow in European energy economics and climate policy, based in Brussels Closing date: Friday 29 May www.cer.eu/job/senior-r...
An important paper laying out the scale of China's challenge to Germany's – and Europe's – export-led economic model. We should debate how best to respond, but it's a mistake to think we can return to the world of yesterday. Doing nothing is also a policy choice.
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo agoGermany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many
Policy jobs! We have several excellent – and rare – openings at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in London and Brussels. 1. Senior research fellow in European energy economics and climate policy, based in Brussels Closing date: Friday 29 May www.cer.eu/job/senior-r...
Senior research fellow – energy and climate economics
The CER is looking for a senior energy and climate economics fellow to join its research team in Brussels.
cer.eu
Ten years too late, some commentators are realising the Brexit referendum wasn’t really about Europe, but about the dissatisfaction of a large swathe of voters with the state of the country and “the system”. Who knew. The costliest populist experiment of our times. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Not a Reform tsunami but a political new wave
These elections show that UK politics is wide open, but can any party bring the change demanded since Brexit?
thetimes.com
Is the Turnberry deal unravelling? I sat down with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social in our podcast to talk about what's going wrong in transatlantic trade and what might come next. Including a slightly nerdy discussion about steel and critical minerals. Give it a listen.
Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 3mo ago🎙️ Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ discussing renewed tensions in transatlantic #trade between the EU and the US, @antonspisak.bsky.social spoke with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social on 5/5/26. Listen here:
Is the Turnberry deal unravelling? I sat down with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social in our podcast to talk about what's going wrong in transatlantic trade and what might come next. Including a slightly nerdy discussion about steel and critical minerals. Give it a listen.
Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 3mo ago🎙️ Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ discussing renewed tensions in transatlantic #trade between the EU and the US, @antonspisak.bsky.social spoke with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social on 5/5/26. Listen here:
Because the “we buy more from them than they do from us” strategy worked so well during the Brexit negotiations. Thanks for reminding us, Mr Davis.
What a devastating piece in this weekend’s FT — a profile of a remarkable 25-years-old Ukrainian woman, Yana Zalevska, who is the commander of an all-women drone unit. And who is also waging a war on another front — in her own mind.
You'd be forgiven for feeling confused. Last week there was a brief show of unity in DC. Today, the Turnberry deal doesn't seem to be worth the paper it was written on.
David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social · 3mo agoYour regular reminder that no trade deal with President Trump can be considered permanent, and it might not even last the day.
The rewriting of history carries on. It was the 2016 Brexit referendum that has crowded out more important issues from British political life. The single biggest cost of Brexit is its opportunity cost: all the things that could’ve happened between 2016-24. But sure, let’s talk about “SW1 pathology”.
Lots of attention again on Chinese investment in the EU. I think most miss the most important observation. Chinese FDI in the EU is tiny, a fraction of what it was 10 years ago. But EU's trade deficit with China is ballooning, up another 30% this year. The implications should be obvious. 1/
Polanski’s foreign policy is as far removed from the earth as his economic policies. A populist par excellence, riding the wave of the anti-Labour/Starmer sentiment.
Tom Hunter@onelifestand87.bsky.social · 3mo agoTurns out I was giving Polanski too much credit on Ukraine. What the fuck is he talking about here? Putin has an ICC warrant for the industrial kidnapping of tens of thousands of Ukrainian kids & rewarded the soldiers who massacred civillians Bucha with medals for their ‘bravery’
It may turn out that one part of the British state doesn’t share information with another, and that nobody really has a complete view of any given issue. Key decisions are often made on a whim – a problem that surprises no one that has ever worked in UK government.
Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · 3mo agoFT Exclusive: The UK’s National Crime Agency reviewed new allegations about Mandelson and Epstein in spring 2024, according to people familiar with the matter, raising further questions about how the peer came to be nominated as ambassador to Washington later that year www.ft.com/content/0d65...
Key polling showing different voter perception of the benefits between a) doing the incredibly politically and administratively tricky job of rejoining the single market and/or a customs union and b) rejoining the EU. The political push for Rejoin could happen sooner than most people expect.
A real pleasure to join the BBC World Weekend programme early this morning, and to witness firsthand what a seriously impressive broadcaster Gary O’Donoghue is. We talked about the Middle East war, the energy shock, the Hungarian and Bulgarian elections, and other things.
Really good analysis of Orbán’s downfall and Magyar’s victory for Hungary and the EU
Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 4mo agoWhat does Orban’s departure mean for #Hungary and for the EU? 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/xfjtSOf
Reminder that in addition to Russia/Ukraine issues, Orbán was also vetoing more sanctions against violent West Bank settlers www.eunews.it/en/2026/02/2...
Hungary blocks EU sanctions against violent Israeli settlers
Hungary, represented by Minister Péter Szijjártó, also blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and withdrew its approval for the maxi-loan to Ukraine agreed by leaders in December.
eunews.it
An election is coming up in Slovakia next year, and Fico is no doubt watching the results from Budapest nervously tonight. Orbán’s defeat could have a big mobilising effect on the Slovak democratic opposition forces to help push him out.