📣 Next week: CCEW Symposium (co-hosted with the German Federal Foreign Office) “The Potential of Data, AI & Interdisciplinary Analysis in Situational Awareness and Decision Making.” 📅 17–18 Sep 2025:📍Berlin The full program is available here: go.unibw.de/sym25en

Symposium on Crisis Early Warning

go.unibw.de

🚀 We're live! We’re excited to officially introduce you to the new Bluesky account of the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW)! We conduct quantitative conflict research and predictive analytics to deliver evidence-based early warning. 👉 Follow us for updates!

🆕 Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Non-parametric Smoothing Approach 💡@dracek.bsky.social‬ Thurner and Kauermann develop a statistical model to capture the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social‬) doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach

Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants

doi.org

📢 NEW PAPER ALERT Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A. Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann. academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan... [1/5]

Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach

Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants

academic.oup.com

🚨New Preprint (wish it were less timely)🚨 We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al osf.io/preprints/ps...