Peter Garnry, CFA
@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
CEO & Co-founder at Gesda Capital. I’m passionated about equity investing and equity valuation. My vision is to show that active equity investing can work if set up properly. I was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank.
Agree that it distorts incentives but ads are a necessary “tax” for those that want things for “free”.
Dare Obasanjo@carnage4life.bsky.social · 4d agoOpenAI plans to show ads while generating images. As someone who works in ads, I dislike the incentive this creates. If ad views depend on image generation time, creating images faster could reduce ad revenue. Ads making the experience so bad that you’re compelled to pay reminds me of YouTube.
Annual revisions lifted the savings rate level, but the sharp downward trajectory remains. Despite all the noise about AI, the biggest driver of strong US growth over the last 2.5yrs has come from household's spending growing much faster than their incomes.
The rumours on Nubank being in early talks about acquiring UK-based Monzo took down the stock price by 10% yesterday. Investors are fearing shareholder dilution, lack of focus and too high premium. On the other hand, Monzo is fast growing a very successful digital bank.
Incredible downfall for Nike. The most outrageous thing is that it could much more given the bleak sales outlook. The ultimate test of brand strength…
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2w agoB of A throws in the towel on $NKE: “.. We are cutting F27E/F28E EPS by 11%/12%; we now expect negative sales growth through F27E versus our prior view of a Spring inflection.
Det danske herrelandshold i fodbold har en massiv ledelseskrise. Det har stået klart længe og ansættelsen af Kent Nielsen var et klart tegn. Du må ikke havne et sted hvor en anfører ventilerer sine følelser i pressen og basalt stiller et ultimatum mod holdets bedste spiller.
Search interest in “Muse” was still higher in September 2009 than it is now (That’s when the band Muse released its amazing “Resistance” album)
The AI token deflation wave is the largest ever since in the modern economy. Some will survive this but the ROIC economics will be tough to manage. It will require an insane operational cost focus. Completely opposite modus operandi of the past for hyperscalers.
Antoine Walker Capital@antoinewalkercap.bsky.social · 2w ago
Google search is dying. The question is how long it will take. And more importantly, can Google offset search revenue with YouTube, cloud and AI?
Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com · 2w ago‘Traffic to news sites is plummeting in the U.S. as tech giants shift users from search and social sites to AI interfaces.’ www.axios.com/media-trends...
Meta’s Muse is interesting but is it a most. That is the market’s current verdict but Amazon’s rejection says that the path is complicated. Interesting point sequence: Claude Code - software Mythos - cybersecurity Muse - banks The first narrative has often been wrong. Could happen again…
I love when investors talk about this era is exponential across so many dimensions. Sorry to break the party. The economy has always been exponential. What they actually mean is super exponential but the physical world will destroy that dream before it even starts…
From looking at data from OpenRouter, Ramp & Vercel, we can see the AI business model in real time. Anthropic remains the monetization leader, but revenue growth is slowing as customers shift to cheaper models. OpenAI is going the other direction, with usage and spend on its models accelerating.
Of course this is the strategy. Any rational person should see this and not believe this extinction nonsense. The paradox is that Trump flips the narrative on the call with Jensen saying it a hoax. My take is that it is all about a giant political battle shaping up…
Dare Obasanjo@carnage4life.bsky.social · 4w agoIt’s a fair point that Dario’s AI slowdown proposal’s toughest constraints aren’t on American frontier labs. They’re on China. The strategy is to restrict chips, compute and distillation to widen the US lead, then use that lead to give American labs room to slow down.
Extremely valid point and likely something that could be extended to other domains in our new geopolitical era.
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4w agoLatest piece. People asked why the Saudi military seems hamstrung? A problem it and other Gulf states face is that they have constructed their militaries on systems that they buy and do not make. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-buying...
Last time the Fed hiked before an election? 2022 midterm under Biden. From 1984 to 2024, the Fed adjusted rates (up or down) within 60 days of an election (43%) as often as in any other 60-day period (45%).
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4w agoHassett threatens Warsh: "I'd be wary of a rake hike. The Fed has had hiked rates ahead of an election only a couple times all the way back to 1913. So I think if you want an independent Fed, one thing the Fed does is stay out of the way of elections."
Oracle earnings 🍿 my takeaways: Oracle NOPAT for the quarter is around 6.2bn with CapEx at 28.5bn leading to negative FCF of just ~22bn in a single quarter. CapEx increased to 28.5bn from 8.5bn a year ago.
These are inside views. They are rarely the best calibrated predictions.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last mo.ANTHROPIC EXEC: “.. I personally think it is >10% within the next decade.”
I cannot help thinking on the “Pisa Shock” that… Either we are measuring the wrong thing here, or we are indeed measuring the right aptitudes but have poor understanding of the causal drivers delivering the outcomes we want to see through our measurements? Any wise thoughts from educators?
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com · last mo.Two extraordinary charts from today’s PISA test results: 1) School test scores continue to collapse internationally, underscoring how this is no longer a Covid effect but sustained decline. Those falls in reading and maths are equivalent to about two years of lost schooling.
All the accounting policy changes in the AI ecosystem with Microsoft doing the latest reducing capex by 15bn due reclassifying finance leases into operating leases tells you that we are playing a game. But a serious investor reading financial statements will not be fooled…
So AI datacenter spending and higher bond yields are impacting construction spending ex AI…
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last mo.US construction spending has rolled over. 🇺🇸 @cnbc.com
A lot of volatility in aftermarket trading in Palo Alto post Q3 earnings release. Everything looks good and then you look at the negative operating income for the quarter. But…there are one-time SBC effects from acquisitions and one-off acquisition costs.
The sector that is seeing the biggest adoption and impact from AI because of the nature of the work. The chair of the workers union for the finanacial sector sounded the alarm yesterday that the adoption rate is too high.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last mo.SCHWAB: “.. The hiring rate for the financial services sector fell to 1.4% in July … the lowest since April 2011.” #JOLTS
The sequence must be, acquire domain knowledge first and then later apply AI to speed up some things. Essentially an effective human-AI feedback loop.
Dare Obasanjo@carnage4life.bsky.social · last mo.An AI-native startup just restricted most new hires from using AI until they actually learn their jobs. Employees were using expensive frontier models for simple work while senior people cleaned up the AI slop. They now expect token spend to fall from $15–20M to $4–5M. I feel similar pain daily.
Seriously a great read from Gorman. I recommend all investors that believed the software is dead narrative to counterbalance that view with an inside perspective rooted in realism.
Jason Gorman@jasongorman.bsky.social · last mo.For a host of reasons - not least the available evidence - I believe the folks chasing reliable long-horizon agentic coding are on a Fool's Errand. More likely, there's a sweet spot where we might get the best results for the lowest cost. codemanship.wordpress.com/2026/08/28/t...
Cyber security events in the UK recently is a crude awakening of the treat from AI on our precious public infrastructure.
FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · last mo.OpenAI says 116 organizations, including Anthropic, $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN, signed a letter calling for faster trusted-access programs and AI-enabled cyber defenses for critical infrastructure.
The thing is that Bill Gates and many other entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley have made horrible predictions in the past. The base rate is still everything will be fine unless this is the Turkey getting slaughtered moment in the Taleb sense.
Dare Obasanjo@carnage4life.bsky.social · last mo.Bill Gates says the quiet part out loud. The era of technology killing jobs and creating new ones is over. As long as it involves thinking AI can do it while robots are coming for physical labor. It’s not if but when. It’s an uncomfortable realization and one no government is seriously tackling.
