Another example of how “strategic sectors” arguments can be misused to protect vested interests. economist.com/europe/2026/...

Ireland is helping supply Russia’s war machine

The EU considers putting an Irish alumina refiner on its sanctions list

economist.com

The rial has collapsed by around 68% since the resumption of the Hormuz blockade on July 14, to now about 2.5 million rials per US dollar. Iran's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have also collapsed. The question to my mind is how much pain is the govern⁴ment willing to inflict on its people,

Robin Brooks@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 15h ago

We're nearing the end of the line on Iran. The Rial had another big fall yesterday. Iran exported 80 million barrels of oil in the 4 weeks before the blockade was reimposed on July 14. That cash is now depleted. The blockade and US sanctions are working... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

It's almost a perversion to blame the Yen carry trade for rising US yields. Yields are rising because our debt issuance is running at 7.5% of GDP in the 12 months through June of this year. Fiscal policy is quite literally out of control. That's the story... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...

There's a theory going around that US yields are spiking because of a Yen carry trade unwind. Japan has great data for its portfolio flows into long-term US debt. Those flows do NOT explain the recent spike in US yields. Let's stop blaming Mrs. Watanabe... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...

The success of the blockade is about far more than Iran. The West struggles to counter oil exporting dictators for fear of spiking oil prices. This led to appeasement on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Europe can now blockade Russia in the Baltic... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

France's real 10-year yield is 2.8% versus the US at 2.9%. All of high-debt Europe now has yields above where they were in 2022 when the ECB hit the panic button and intervened aggressively to cap them. The Euro zone debt crisis never really ended at all. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

Warsh has really backed himself into a corner. Without forward guidance, markets just price a hike for every meeting. We're pricing 70% odds for a hike on October 28 and 100 bps through end-2027. If Warsh doesn't follow through, markets will pitch a fit... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

Before the war, Saudi Arabia exported around 6 mb/d. We're basically back to that, only at much higher prices, which means the Kingdom is getting a massive windfall. Iran is basically handing its neighbors a massive windfall while it remains blockaded... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/saudi-arab...

We're nearing the end of the line on Iran. The Rial had another big fall yesterday. Iran exported 80 million barrels of oil in the 4 weeks before the blockade was reimposed on July 14. That cash is now depleted. The blockade and US sanctions are working... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

In August, the benign take on the global bond sell-off was that it was due to thin liquidity. Well, the sell-off has gotten worse since then and it's September now. There's lots of whataboutism on what's going on. This is how a global debt crisis starts... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

Italy (lhs) and France (rhs) are getting absolutely clobbered today. 10y10y forward yields (orange) for both are up 10 bps in one day, which is a massive jump for the long end of the yield curve. At what point do we call this what it is? A debt crisis... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trouble-fo...

The 10y10y forward US Treasury yield is now firmly above anything we've seen in the past two decades. The US looks comparatively good compared to the rest of the world, where the sell-off in global bond markets is even more severe. A global debt shock... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

There's two kinds of countries in the global bond market sell-off: those that are seeing yields rise more than the global average and those that are below. The dividing line is debt. If ever there was an argument for responsible fiscal policy, this is it... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

There is no other EM that's transformed itself quite like Brazil. Markets haven't rewarded this with a stronger Brazilian Real because they don't like Lula, but a win by Bolsonaro could change all that. $/BRL would quickly go to 4.80 or lower if he wins... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-c...

I first advocated for blockading Iran in this piece on March 16. Since the reimposition of the blockade on July 14, it's become a massively potent weapon. No regime - however odious - can survive total implosion of its economy, which is what's happening... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

Iran used the one month pause in the blockade to export 80 million barrels of oil. The cash from those exports is about to run dry, so we're about to see a complete meltdown in the Rial and the economy. What's happened so far has only been the prelude... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

It sounds counterintuitive, but Saudi Arabia is the big winner in this war. It's annual revenue from oil exports was $150 bn before the war started. That's now $210 bn or higher because the rise in oil prices more than offsets the fall in export volumes... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/saudi-arab...

Foreign inflows into US equities, which are associated with the AI buildout, are massive in the past two years. There's lots of talk this will lift the Dollar, but these flows haven't boosted the Dollar so far. There's way more hype around AI than truth... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-the-a...

The Brazilian Real was on its way to 4.50 back in May, but then Bolsonaro got tangled up in a banking scandal, his odds to win dipped and the Real fell. That shows how much the Real can strengthen if Bolsonaro wins. Watch my live stream from this morning: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-w...

The problem for the Fed is that it's trying to anchor yields in the face of big deficits. That can't work as the issue is fiscal, not monetary. Hikes will fall short of what's priced and the debasement trade will take off again. Yesterday's live stream: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

I got a ton of pushback for this piece, with people saying migration is a non-issue in Germany. That's hard to square with the rapid rise of AfD, which is running on remigration. I'm not a fan of AfD, but we do need to be honest about what's going on... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-wr...

I did a live stream on the meltdown in Iran's economy three weeks ago. In the end, just like Russia, Iran is a gas station masquerading as a country. If you cut off its oil exports, which the US blockade is doing, the economy implodes. You can watch here: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET). I'll be talking about Brazil, which holds its election a week from today. The Real has been chronically undervalued ever since COVID. I'll talk about how much that could change if Bolsonaro wins... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

The attack on the East-West pipeline made it seem like Saudi Arabia is on the back foot. But oil exports are 5.5 mb/d, up from a low of 4 mb/d at the height of the war. That's below 7 mb/d pre-war, but - with higher prices - the Kingdom is minting money... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/saudi-arab...

I'm doing my usual Sunday live stream at 9:30 am (ET) tomorrow morning. I'll talk about how much the Brazilian Real will strengthen if Bolsonaro wins the upcoming election. If he wins, I expect $/BRL to go to 4.80 very quickly. I'll explain why tomorrow. open.substack.com/live-stream/...

The dominant narrative on Iran - that it has asymmetric leverage over the US - is wrong. Iran is in deep crisis with its currency in freefall. This is happening even as the US Navy has re-opened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has backed itself into a corner... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-meltdo...

If Warsh hikes on Oct. 28, markets will briefly cheer him. Then they'll drive him against the wall by fully pricing a hike for December. The Fed can't win this stand-off. You can't hike your way out of bad fiscal policy. My live stream from this morning: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

Iran has played its hand very badly. It's lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic is now the highest in many months. This means Iran has nothing to offer Trump in negotiations, even as its economy is in complete and utter meltdown... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

The global bond market sell-off gathered pace this week. Yields are rising everywhere, but France looks different. Yields look like they're going vertical and this obviously isn't sustainable. France needs to do something, but the politics is paralyzed... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

The best hedge against escalation of the war with Iran is the Dollar versus EM. The Dollar reliably goes up versus EM when oil prices rise, so this is where risk aversion flows are strongest. The S&P 500 is the worst hedge. It falls when oil prices rise... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...