FEDERAL PROJECTIONS - June 15, 2025 LPC: 174 CPC: 140 BQ: 22 NDP: 6 GPC: 1 #politics #polling #canada #poll #cdnpoli #smartvoting

While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy. 94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly. 70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct. More data to come at SmartVoting.ca #cdnpoli

SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status. FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 185 (215) CPC: 124 (86) BQ: 24 (26) NDP: 9 (13) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

Running final numbers now

In our penultimate update for the 2025 Federal Election. Liberal climb back up to above 190 seats. Final update tomorrow morning. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 192 (218) CPC: 118 (87) BQ: 23 (25) NDP: 9 (12) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

Seat counts tighten among progressive parties as we enter the final weekend. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 188 (217) CPC: 119 (85) BQ: 25 (26) NDP: 10 (12) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 26, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support. #smartvoting #election2025 #canada

We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions. It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻

The juggling of seats continue between the majors but the LPC still holding onto a 185+ seat count going into the final weekend. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 192 (215) CPC: 119 (86) BQ: 24 (27) NDP: 7 (12) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

Favourable polls from Léger (A+) and Nanos (A) for the Liberal regain the seats lost from the Mainstreet (A-) polls that went CPC. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 195 (220) CPC: 115 (84) BQ: 22 (24) NDP: 10 (12) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

CPC takes two from the LPC in our latest update. But the Conservative vote continues to weaken nationwide meaning more is up for grabs. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 189 (218) CPC: 122 (86) BQ: 23 (25) NDP: 8 (11) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

We continue to see tight races between the LPC, BQ and NDP resulting in a flip-flop of numbers. CPC number is still firm at 120. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 191 (213) CPC: 120 (91) BQ: 23 (25) NDP: 8 (11) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

The two polls from Mainstreet that favour the CPC didn't really hurt the aggregate. Liberals up 2 since yesterday. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 194 (216) CPC: 120 (90) BQ: 22 (23) NDP: 6 (11) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 20, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

Are the Liberals dropping in the polls? Yes, slightly Is that benefiting the CPC? No. Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 192 (214) CPC: 120 (90) BQ: 22 (23) NDP: 8 (13) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

A visible vote split is starting to unfold across the country. The Bloc and the NDP have picked away at some Liberal leads in the country. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 197 (220) CPC: 118 (87) BQ: 18 (19) NDP: 9 (14) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #election #canada

As older polls that favour the CPC and NDP start to age out. It's becoming clear that the Liberals are extremely favoured. That being said, anything can happen. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 206 (227) CPC: 113 (85) BQ: 16 (17) NDP: 6 (11) GPC: 2 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli

⚠️ RIDING POLLS ALERT ⚠️ We got some polls from Saskatchewan down to the riding level from a A rated pollster. The story here is telling for the state of this election. The fact that the Liberals are threatening Saskatoon is just insane. #canada #polling #data #election

Liberals continue to hold firm at ~200 seats and the NDP and Greens make gains in their strongholds. FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 203 (223) CPC: 113 (86) BQ: 16 (18) NDP: 9 (13) GPC: 2 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 11, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 #cdnpoli #canada #politics #election

After a few days of stagnated numbers we finally get an update that moves the needle. What's notable is the Greens are surging on Vancouver Island FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 204 (225) CPC: 115 (86) BQ: 16 (18) NDP: 7 (12) GPC: 1 (3) PPC: 0 (0) April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 46% CPC: 36% NDP: 7% BLOC: 7% GPC: 2% PPC: 1% Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 45% CPC: 39% NDP: 7% BLOC: 4% GPC: 2% PPC: 2% Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 43% CPC: 38% NDP: 8% BLOC: 7% GPC: 3% PPC: 2% Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 44% CPC: 40% NDP: 8% BLOC: 3% GPC: 3% PPC: 3% Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 44% CPC: 34% NDP: 11% BLOC: 5% GPC: 4% PPC: 2% MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 200 (218) CPC: 120 (95) BQ: 15 (17) NDP: 7 (12) GPC: 1 (1) PPC: 0 (0) April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 (Seats with a strategic vote) #canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 46% CPC: 38% NDP: 6% BLOC: 4% GPC: 2% PPC: 2% Liaison (B) | April 3, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 43% CPC: 40% NDP: 6% BLOC: 6% PPC: 2% GPC: 1% Mainstreet (A-) | April 3, 2025 | S = 1625 | MOE = 2.5% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL POLL LPC: 46% CPC: 35% NDP: 9% BLOC: 5% GPC: 3% PPC: 1% Nanos (A) | April 4, 2025 | S = 1248 | MOE = 2.8% #canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION LPC: 203 (221) CPC: 117 (95) BQ: 16 (17) NDP: 6 (12) GPC: 1 (1) PPC: 0 (0) April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10 (Seats with a strategic vote) #canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green

We’ve received a lot of messages asking why some candidate information isn’t showing on SmartVoting. We update our platform within 24 hours of candidates being officially registered with Elections Canada. We really appreciate everyone who has reached out. Keep checking back as new info comes in!