I can't believe the president proposed a $270/MT carbon tax and dividend last night. Ambitious!
asa watten
@asawatten.bsky.social
economist. i think about energy technology innovation and climate policy. newly in new orleans. asawatten.net
Second verse same as the first. "[...] we describe how the 2018 analysis has fundamental flaws and inconsistences, is at odds with basic economic theory and empirical studies, is misleading, and does not improve estimates [...] in the 2016 analysis." www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1...
Flawed analyses of U.S. auto fuel economy standards
A 2018 analysis discarded at least $112 billion in benefits
science.org
John Bistline@bistline.bsky.social · 3w agoSeems bad. "Our findings indicate that the basis for rollback is riddled with inconsistencies and hard-to-justify assumptions, which may put it in legal jeopardy." www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Insane new research. Scientists gave asthma patients free electric stoves to replace their gas stoves, then checked to see if symptoms improved. Not only did symptoms improve, ditching gas was *better than medicine.* Details in today's newsletter: www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/electric-s...
Researchers used electric stoves to treat asthma. It worked.
The latest evidence that gas is bad for your health.
climatecoloredgoggles.com
though these scams demonstrate a real need for much better personal cooling tech
Jeff Shaumeyer 🌈@jnshaumeyer.bsky.social · 2mo agoIn this case it's not "too good to be true", but thermodynamically impossible. Where is the rejected heat going (no external connections)? Can't work for the same reason leaving your refrigerator door open can't.
Great coverage of our working paper. 2 things I wish made it in the story: 1. Strong reasons to think that scaling up the grid reduces prices long run—excellent news for electrification. 2. The big risk with data centers is uncertainty—what if they don’t stick around to pay for all the new stuff.
Marketplace@marketplace.org · 2mo agoData centers put downward pressure on average electricity prices through 2024. But that might not continue if data center demand outpaces electricity supply.
To estimate whether data centers raise electricity bills, you need to solve a classic econometric problem: data centers pick low-price locations, which makes them look good. Our solution involves Dwight Eisenhower. New working paper with @asawatten.bsky.social and Geoff Blanford 🧵
🚨New preprint with @bistline.bsky.social and Geoff Blanford where we estimate the *causal* effect of data centers on avg residential electricity prices. DCs probably didn't increase your elc bill in the past. They certainly did not on average. Implications and caveats...🧵 arxiv.org/pdf/2606.19777
arxiv.org
And solar in the US employs roughly 6 Broadways or 80 coal industries
ceej@ceej.online · 4mo agoone of my favorite facts about the US coal industry is that it employs less people than Broadway
lots to be constern'd about with AI, but i can't help thinking much of the labor consternation stems from the engineering tendency to model problems as min cost given fixed output vs the econ tendency max output given fixed input for more nuance see: substack.com/home/post/p-...
You are not a horse
AI and the future of labor demand
substack.com
It is shocking (intended) to think what's going on here is that the world has other options besides oil, unlike in 1973. And that's why the price shock is 1/3 while the supply shock is 3x. Looking forward to your papers in 2029 :p
John Bistline@bistline.bsky.social · 4mo agoUpdated through today. The ceasefire announced April 5 knocked $35 off oil prices. Then Trump called it “on massive life support,” prices climbed back >$107, and the 2026 Hormuz line became something historical crises never were: a spike, a partial recovery, and a second climb.
Average residential electricity rates compared to inflation. While prices for goods are surely downstream of energy costs, it is notable that inflation spiked first and rates followed. Gray are individual states, black is US average, blue is CPI.
asa watten@asawatten.bsky.social · 5mo agoA decade of average residential retail prices.
A decade of average monthly residential electricity prices ($/kWh). A figure that defies a simple story.
Truly fascinating. While BLM keeps wind permitting on ice, they’re giving a green light to geothermal on public lands. Is this the beginning of a new ideological split split? www.blm.gov/press-releas...
BLM takes steps to accelerate geothermal energy development | Bureau of Land Management
The Bureau of Land Management has approved a categorical exclusion to make it easier and faster to explore for geothermal energy on public lands.
blm.gov
Some version of this point has been made for at least 20 years. And I guess economists still need to make it! The biofuel/renewables hokey pokey.
Final EIA-860 is out, and 2025 really did it: 54 GW of new U.S. electric capacity, 96% clean. Solar again carries the offense, and we built more storage in 2025 than the cumulative total through 2023. More and more and more additions... but also record low retirements.
$7.4M per life may be wrong, but $0 is extra super wronger. Hard to square with Section 812 of the Clean Air Act which requires EPA to conduct scientifically reviewed CBA that includes "overall health, welfare, ecological, and economic benefits".
E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved When Setting Rules on Air Pollution
nytimes.com
Mild take: 'Electrons' is simply a popular metaphor and that's fine 🤓 Electricity is profoundly unintuitive for most of us. Like water flowing through pipes is helpful, but wrong.
Ketan Joshi@ketanjoshi.co · 10mo agoIn the bottom 0.1% of the massive mountain of errors, broken arguments and cotton-brained ignorance at play in this classic Yglesias work, but when you generate electricity, you aren't "making electrons", you are pushing them around!!!!! The heart doesn't 'make blood' folks!!! archive.ph/wip/XN3RL
New in Nature Climate Change: @asawatten.bsky.social and I show how common marginal emissions methods can miss system effects and substitution. Using hourly, long-run modeling can materially alter emissions benefits, which we show for rooftop solar. Paper + summary 👇
🚨Oh hey @bistline.bsky.social and I have a short piece in Nature Climate Change out today. It's a response to a great study on global rooftop solar, but it's *really* about the misuse of marginal emissions rates. Something we've been thinking a lot about. #energysky www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Emissions reductions of rooftop solar are overstated by approaches that inadequately capture substitution effects - Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change - Emissions reductions of rooftop solar are overstated by approaches that inadequately capture substitution effects
nature.com
Good news / bad news on U.S. solar in the new LBNL report: • Utility-scale solar >50% of 2024 nameplate additions • But solar's average costs are up ~25% vs. 2022 Record build, rising costs. Two things can be true at once. emp.lbl.gov/utility-scal...
📢 Just launched: Our REGEN energy systems model is now open source! REGEN is a detailed and flexible energy systems modeling platform designed to explore a wide range of long-term scenarios. Check out the code, data, and documentation at the links below.
New Energy Institute Blog Post: Winners and Losers from Interregional Transmission - by Lucas Davis energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/04/07/w...
In the Energy Institute blog this week, Meredith Fowlie has an excellent explainer about what the IRA is really likely to cost per ton of GHG reduction based on a new paper from EPRI. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/03/31/a... #EnergySky
Are Clean Electricity Tax Credits a Bad Deal?
Only when you ignore environmental benefits and electricity bill impacts. U.S. electricity demand is on the rise. A data center boom, a possible renaissance in domestic manufacturing, and a push to…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
My working paper with @bistline.bsky.social is the subject of today's @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social blog post by Meredith Fowlie. Honored! energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/03/31/a...
Are Clean Electricity Tax Credits a Bad Deal?
Only when you ignore environmental benefits and electricity bill impacts. U.S. electricity demand is on the rise. A data center boom, a possible renaissance in domestic manufacturing, and a push to…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
BTC is a computation treadmill. Jensen's paradox (⬆️efficiency=>⬆️demand) is weak for many things (cars, lights) bc demand is inelastic. Not so for crypto mining! Makes sense. Miners mine until marginal cost=marginal benefit. ⬆️eff=>⬇️mc=>⬆️mining=>⬇️mb. An EPRI brief: www.epri.com/research/pro...