Tessera

This in-press article argues that historical flood events in the US Mid-Atlantic Bight are linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) via its impact on the AMOC. This is a provocative claim that warrants further scrutiny, but it is thought-provoking nonetheless. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/27/i...

Is the Indian Ocean Flooding the U.S. East Coast?

Figure 5 from Zhu et al. (2026). Relationships between decadal sea level anomalies (SLAs) and climate modes for the 1950-2020 period. (a) Correlation coefficients between decadal SLAs (with global …

ocean2climate.org

Reading this paper will make you reconsider every study that uses the NAO time series 🌊🧪👍 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/22/t...

Think Twice Before Using NAO Time Series in Your Next Climate Study

Figure 6 from Ender et al. (2026). EOFs 1 of monthly ERA5 sea level pressure over the North Atlantic (20°- 80°N, 90°W-0) for full record [(a); 1993–01 to 2023-12], Period 1 [(b); 1997–06 to 2001-10…

ocean2climate.org

This study by Cui et al. (2026) discusses why the South Atlantic is getting saltier. It is due to both local (increased Evaporation minus Precipitation) and remote drivers (enhanced intrusion of warm & salty surface water from the Indian Ocean). 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/22/w...

Why the South Atlantic is Getting Saltier and Why It Matters for Our Climate

Figure 6 from Cui et al. (2026): (a) Linear trend of zonal wind stress (units: N m−2/decade) averaged over the period 1955–2014 from ERA5. The black solid line indicates the position of the Subtrop…

ocean2climate.org

Xing et al. (2025) shows that historical global warming SST patterns project onto the PDO and alter its spatial pattern. Consequently, cleanly separating the PDO—as a natural internal oscillation—from the background global warming signal is virtually impossible. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/19/i...

Is Global Warming Changing the Pacific Ocean’s Natural Cycles?

Figure 4 from Xing et al. (2025): Differences between the traditional and ensemble-mean removed methods (hereafter traditional-EM). (a) EOF1 and (b)) EOF2 spatial pattern; here differences are calc…

ocean2climate.org

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Eastern Pacific don't just affect short-term climate patterns in the North Atlantic—they also drive long-term shifts, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a decade later by altering deep ocean convection: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/19/s...

SST Anomalies in the Tropical Eastern Pacific can dictate the climate of the North Atlantic a decade later

Figure 1 from Yang et al. (2026): The two leading joint EOF modes and their PCs of North Atlantic SST and AMOC decadal variability. (a) Decadal SST anomalies regressed onto the AMVTEP. Decadal SST …

ocean2climate.org

A new study shows key local blind spots in climate model projections. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/08/19/n...

New Study Reveals Key Local Blind Spots in Climate Model Projections

Fig. 2 from Aru et al. (2026): Partitioning of observed SAT trend patterns into external forcing and internal variability. (A) Total, (B) external forcing, and (C) internal variability observed SAT…

ocean2climate.org

Dr. Aaron Thierry@thierryaaron.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🌊🧪

"Our findings underscore a deeper and more persistent climate footprint of super El Niño events, suggesting that early warnings and proactive measures are crucial for mitigating their escalating risks."

This satellite altimetry plot compares sea surface height anomalies on July 30–31 between the 2023 and 2026 El Niño events. With a peak Niño-3.4 index of +2.0 °C, the 2023–24 El Niño was the fifth-strongest event since 1950. But it is nothing compared to what is developing now. 🌊🧪

What if the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) were to stop? Shutting off this critical ocean valve between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean could trigger a permanent El Niño state and reshape global weather patterns. Here’s what models show 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/07/31/w...

What Happens to the Planet if the Indonesian Throughflow Stops?

This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on several studies, including “The Role of Indonesian Throughflow in a Global Ocean GCM.” by Hirst and Godfr…

ocean2climate.org

Contrary to model projections, the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) strengthened and accelerated Indian Ocean warming. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/07/30/s...

Strengthening of the Indonesian Throughflow Accelerated Indian Ocean Warming Contrary to Climate Model Projections

This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Increased heat transport of the Indonesian Throughflow linked to the spin-up of Southern-Hemisphere circulation gyre…

ocean2climate.org

Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, a Java–Sumatra Niña is about to form. It typically peaks in July–September, often occurring during the developing phase of El Niño, and serves as a precursor to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) event in September–November. 🌊🧪

Weather noise tends to disrupt warm-water volume discharge after the El Niño peak, increasing the likelihood that positive recharge persists into the following year. This highlights the importance of resolving weather in seasonal forecast models: 🌊🧪 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Atmospheric Noise Forcing Increases Multiyear El Niño Events

Interactive-ensemble CCSM4 experiments indicate that atmospheric noise increases the frequency of multiyear El Niño events A Stochastic Recharge Oscillator identifies the amplitude of thermocline...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service is recruiting 4 Fish Biologists across multiple regional offices. 🌊 Grade/Salary: ZP-3 & -4 ($74,678–$197,200) Eligibility: US Citizens www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/car... www.usajobs.gov/job/877528500 ⚠️ Note: Application closes once 400 applicants submit.

NOAA Fisheries Job Descriptions

Detailed information on current jobs available.

fisheries.noaa.gov

A new study (Sheng wet al., 2026) argues that the North Atlantic warming hole has pushed the Atlantic summer jet stream southward. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/07/23/t...

The warming hole has pushed the Atlantic summer jet stream southward

This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability” by Sheng et al.…

ocean2climate.org

Both the El Niño cycle & local Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns can drive up the total number of landfalling storms. However, only El Niño controls the percentage of storms that actually hit land because El Niño actively shifts the winds that steer these storms. 🌊🧪 doi.org/10.1029/2026...

Atmospheric and Oceanic Influences on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfall Probability

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the percentage of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall over the Americas and Caribbean The number of named storms, landfalling named storms, a...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

This study explains why Arctic sea ice retreat is directly tied to a paradoxically increasing Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation (ArcMOC). 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/07/03/t...

The Rise and Fall of the Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation (ArcMOC)

This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Transient Increase in Arctic Deep-Water Formation and Ocean Circulation under Sea Ice Retreat” by Bretones et …

ocean2climate.org

A new study shows that the US East Coast sea level could increase by 20–30 cm above the global mean sea level rise, while the coastal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep water could significantly decrease—both driven by a slowdown of the AMOC. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/06/26/t...

The East Coast’s Double Threat: Why Slower Atlantic Currents Mean Rising Seas and Less Marine Life

This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios” by…

ocean2climate.org

It is too early to tell. But, it appears that Atlantic Nina is about to form. It is not unusual to have a cold event forming during the developing phase of strong El Nino event. Atlantic Nina tends to suppress Cabo Verde Hurricanes, which often become a major hurricane to hit Caribbean islands.🌊🧪