Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
European security & defence, global order, EU in US-China competition. Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own. geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
"Now any settlement could give Tehran control over some of the waterway and without denying it the power to eventually charge fees from vessels using it — conditions that would have seemed unthinkable to US geostrategists just a year ago." www.ft.com/content/87b0...
Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms
US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender
ft.com
The UK's political system as what was often taught as a textbook example of a two-party system has changed quite a bit over the last years. Interesting read about subtle changes in the US: www.economist.com/united-state...
Americans are sick of Republicans and Democrats. Can Independents win?
Senate campaigns in Montana and Nebraska offer a test
economist.com
Last chance was 2024 Washington Summit. Its gone.
The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com · yesterday⚡️ Ukraine will 'never' join NATO, ex-commander Zaluzhnyi says. "It is impossible for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, given their current level of development, to join an organization that is guided by World War II doctrines," Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.K., Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said.
@nathalietocci.bsky.social has an important point here: '"A stronger Europe in a stronger Nato”, is misleading. Yes, Europeans will become militarily stronger, but as the US partly disengages, Nato overall will weaken.'
The Guardian@theguardian.com · yesterdayWith Russia at the door and the US backing away, Europe has to build its own ‘way of war’
Noteworthy: German government is now making emergency plans in case of a far-right victory in Saxony Anhalt - in case of a non-cooperative regional government, the ability to quickly move NATO troops through Germany should not be impacted.
Konflikte & Sicherheit@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social · 3d agoDie #Bundesregierung entwickelt Notfallpläne, um #NATO -Truppen auch bei fehlender Kooperation eines Bundeslandes rasch durch #Deutschland verlegen zu können. Hintergrund hierfür sind Sorgen vor Verzögerungen durch eine mögliche #AfD -Alleinregierung in Sachsen-Anhalt. www.welt.de/politik/ausl...
Really good deep dive into defence financing - including the DSRB, Defence Security and Resilience Bank. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Allies Should Unite on Defence Finance
NATO Allies should come together to form a defence financing instrument that supplements national defence spending, improves companies’ access to affordable capital, and incentivises joint procurement...
rusi.org
Start your week right! ☀️
Gustav Meibauer@meibauir.bsky.social · 6d ago🚨 Die #Geopolitik ist zurück (?!) - und mit ihr eine neue Folge DEFCON 4. 🚨 Zusammen mit @malteriemann.bsky.social @gloefflmann.bsky.social und Episodengästin @gesineweber.bsky.social diskutieren wir die "Geopolitik" von der Klassik bis zum Buzzword. Hört mal rein! open.spotify.com/episode/27F9...
Long portrait of Xavier Betrand, president of "Nous France". He is expected to announce his candidacy for the presidential elections in fall, but is already positioning himself as the candidate of the right and the centre: www.lefigaro.fr/politique/je...
« Je n’ai pas le profil d’une prise de guerre, je trace ma route » : le pari de Xavier Bertrand pour s’imposer comme candidat de la droite et du centre
RÉCIT - Alors que certains espèrent son ralliement, le président de « Nous France » se laisse jusqu’à la fin de l’année pour « tester ses idées » et s’imposer dans la campagne présidentielle.
lefigaro.fr
Biting back was the smart strategy last year - but it might not even be necessary this year. Playing on time may do the job, and if it doesn't, biting back remains an option. www.politico.com/news/2026/08...
Trump keeps escalating his trade threats. This time, Europe isn’t biting.
The EU believes Trump’s latest threats are best answered with strategic patience, not retaliation.
politico.com
Looks like investments into a manga theme park are not considered "sensitive" investments. I'm still a bit confused by this entire story, quite an interesting trilateral.
The beginning of August is often the start of vacation season. If you need a read for the beach or wherever you're spending your days off, make sure to check out the Geopolitical Europe reading list! geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...
Geopolitical Europe Summer Reading List 2026
Under the shade of a tree or on the beach: a summer vacation (or even, more generally, every good summer season) always gets better with a good read.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
This is your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you. Photo: sunrise at Triphammer falls, Ithaca, NY
If you fancy a blend of pop culture (Odyssey) and international law: my colleague Sabina Stein has written an excellent take on this. css.ethz.ch/en/center/CS...
What Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey Tells Us About the Perils of Violating International Law
One of the most anticipated films of the year, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, hit the big screen earlier this month. Based on ticket sales, the film was watched by approximately 15 to 18 million peo...
css.ethz.ch
I understand that things will take time, but postponing a major summit be four months is perhaps not ideal…
David Phinnemore@dphinnemore.bsky.social · last wk."Officials on both sides have, however, said they expect the [EU-UK Summit] to be held in October or November to dodge the summer break, the U.N. General Assembly, and the Labour Party conference." www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
More offensive weapons: could be realistic Fighter cover: I still have a hard time seeing this - simply because I don’t know which state would be willing to do it.
Chatham House@chathamhouse.org · last wk.Ukraine’s air defence faces a crisis with Russia’s missile and drone production outstripping Ukraine’s ability to shoot them down. Europe can help now by providing fighter cover, or delivering more offensive weapons.
Correction: million, not bn. Lesson: don’t do social media on a jet lagged brain
Gesine Weber@gesineweber.bsky.social · last wk.A detail in the Foreign Affairs Council a few weeks ago, but an interesting one: EU now provides assistance worth €15 bn worth to the Philippines for maritime awareness. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...
A detail in the Foreign Affairs Council a few weeks ago, but an interesting one: EU now provides assistance worth €15 bn worth to the Philippines for maritime awareness. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...
European Peace Facility: Council adopts first-ever assistance measure for the Philippines' maritime security
The Council adopted an assistance measure, worth €15 million under the EPF that will benefit the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
consilium.europa.eu
Even if/ when people do not believe that climate change is real: the economic impact on local SMEs is - and that's why any government and elected official caring about their constituents should want to take action?
Richard Corbett CBE@richardcorbett.bsky.social · last wk.Wildfires across Europe on an unprecedented scale, yet Badenoch says she’ll throws out of her party anyone who supports the net zero target (that was introduced by a previous Conservative govt). She’d rather the planet burns than reduce the profits of the fossil fuel companies.
KCL is a founding member of Defence Universities Allianc. Big congrats for my Alma Mater @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social, and especially friends and colleagues at @warstudieskcl.bsky.social and @dsdkings.bsky.social - good things & important work to come! www.kcl.ac.uk/news/kings-j...
King's joins Defence Universities Alliance | King's College London
King’s has been selected to be part of the UK’s inaugural Defence Universities Alliance (DUA) network of 35 UK universities whose work will help to maintain safety and security in an increasingly inse...
kcl.ac.uk
A bit too binary, in my opinion. Many states also look for alternatives other than US and China, and they are not simply a pendulum swinging from the US to China and vice-versa. www.ft.com/content/f3ad...
Why the world trusts China more than America
Countries suspicious of the US are to be found on every continent, not just in its own back yard
ft.com
Not too surprising: a move that will clearly help to align the party and the parliamentary group more.
Christian Thiels@christianthiels.eurosky.social · 2w ago"Merz has chosen his chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, to succeed Spahn as head of the conservative CDU/CSU parliamentary group, according to sources within the alliance on Wednesday." @dpa.com www.yahoo.com/news/politic...
Defence cooperation is also a relatively low-hanging fruit and an easy win. Berlin, Paris, and Brussels should not miss this window of opportunity before spring 2027, when French voters head to the polls.
Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · 2w agoOne shift from Starmer: he looks to European partners, the EU and the E3, before Trump's US, and has swapped his foreign and EU ministers. For Berlin and Brussels the question is whether to go beyond pragmatism. Defence cooperation to me remains the obvious place to start.
@danielfiott.bsky.social looks at the EU's threat assessment here - a document we don't talk about enough. Important implications:
CSDS Brussels@csds.bsky.social · 2w ago❗New CSDS Policy Brief❗ "The Strategy Trap? European Threat Assessments and the Problem of Common Action", by Daniel Fiott. Read csds.vub.be/publication/... #Europe #Strategy #GhentFour #FrenchSchool @danielfiott.bsky.social
Spoiler: did not improve the relationship with France. warontherocks.com/how-the-war-...
How the War with Iran is Shaping Key U.S. Relations Beyond the Middle East
The U.S. war with Iran has had political, economic, and military implications that spread far beyond the Middle East. We asked five experts to assess how
warontherocks.com
Wait, what?
Derrick Wyatt's Law and Policy Blog@blogwyatt.bsky.social · 2w agowww.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026... This provocative show of force by Russia off our shores could not come at a more opportune time, as a new Prime Minister, and his Chancellor and Defence Secretary consider ramping up the UK's defence expenditure.
First major announcement on governance reform by the new Burnham government, including a beefing up of the Cabinet Office:
Alex Thomas@alexgathomas.bsky.social · 2w agoMajor machinery of govt changes including - finally! - the creation of an Office for the Prime Minister and Cabinet Long overdue and excellent news that the Burnham govt has grasped this nettle questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
