what most new SpaceX investors probably don't understand is that it's *expected* to take 7-8 quarters of everything getting destroyed before they get the real benefits of deep conviction: an iterative process that leads to fast eval and re-use of the promises they come up with to deflect press heat
Dustin Moskovitz
@moskov.goodventures.org
Co-founder at Asana and Good Ventures (a funding partner of Coefficient Giving). Strange looper. You can just build the things you want to see in the world. “Criminally underliked”
There are two wolves. One always lies. One controls the lever of trolley track. They're in a state of superposition inside a box. On the trolley are infinite monkeys at infinite typewriters going to an infinite hotel. The trolley must first travel halfway, but before that a quarterway, and so on...
Good news: some of the US international aid funding has been restored! I graphed it here to put the numbers in context of the scale of the cuts. The article says PEPFAR restoration is still to come. 🤞
Good to see that money for GAVI, Global Fund, the World Food Programme and other health program is now starting to finally flow with expectations for more PEPFAR money as well. Gift link. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/h...
What's the best thing Claude has "refused" to do in a session for you so far?
Just really feeling appreciative today that Donald John Trump rushed the Covid vaccine through and took it himself and told everyone to. Good job Trump MAKING THE COVID VACCINE
What's coming is Stuxnet as a service, wielded by people with the impulse control of a bored teenager and the capability of a nation-state APT team. We have one to two years to pwn day.
hospital and municipal IT are going to get fucking wrecked whenever someone releases Mythos-class models to the wild and I hope someone in a position to do something about that is on top of it
IPO price discovery will be completed in approximately two months.
We already spent 1/3 of the SPR as a buffer against sanctions when the Ukraine War started, so we began the Iran conflict behind. (I am surprised this does not come up more as blaming Biden/democrats for a shortfall, but that might start appearing soon.) 1/2
These charts are now available interactively at damstrait.net Learn about: production trends, reserve trends, how demand destruction breaks down, what happens if the war continues, and more.
I cannot confirm it works well, but this now supports poly relationships too, not just "relationships classic". Presets available for common structures: Kitchen Table, Parallel Poly, Hierarchy Honored, Relationship Anarchy, and Solo Poly. I don't know what these mean, but Fable does ?
The 18 of you who vaguely like the idea of the moral parliament will be thrilled to hear about a new spinoff: the partner parliament. In Partner Parliament, instead of you fighting with your partner, a group of agents debate the topic and give you ways of looking at it. partnerparliament.net
These charts are now available interactively at damstrait.net Learn about: production trends, reserve trends, how demand destruction breaks down, what happens if the war continues, and more.
Oil & the Two Wars — Flows, Prices & Buffers
How two wars rerouted — and removed — the world's oil. Flows, prices, and the buffers now spent; every figure linked to its source.
damstrait.net
As the war drags on, I keep wondering about the "demand destruction" that must come from the hole in the world's oil supply. Are people driving less? Taking less trips? What I see: the pain is not evenly distributed. Some countries basically forced themselves into recession right away in March. 1/5
hello fast mode my old friend I've come to code with you again www.anthropic.com/news/claude-...
Introducing Claude Opus 5
Opus 5 is a step change improvement for the Opus tier powering long-running agents while delivering improvements in coding and professional work.
anthropic.com
The 18 of you who vaguely like the idea of the moral parliament will be thrilled to hear about a new spinoff: the partner parliament. In Partner Parliament, instead of you fighting with your partner, a group of agents debate the topic and give you ways of looking at it. partnerparliament.net
This moral parliament tool is now available as a standalone site: moralparliament.net It now asks you a few clarifying questions, like the chatbots and coding platforms do, which makes it easy and fast to configure new ones. The goal isn't to tell you what to do, but rather to explore the nuance.
As the war drags on, I keep wondering about the "demand destruction" that must come from the hole in the world's oil supply. Are people driving less? Taking less trips? What I see: the pain is not evenly distributed. Some countries basically forced themselves into recession right away in March. 1/5
I’m really excited about this: we’re increasing our support for GiveWell recs this year from $175M to $1B to help pave the way for an expected surge in funding from others. coefficientgiving.org/research/in...
Increasing Our 2026 Allocation to GiveWell’s Recommendations to $1 Billion
coefficientgiving.org
CG, via funding from Good Ventures, is surging budgets in 2026 across all categories. I'm particularly happy about this Givewell focused grant (larger than last year's *entire* budget!). It's timed and designed to scale the field ahead of the anticipated wave of new funders next year.
I’m really excited about this: we’re increasing our support for GiveWell recs this year from $175M to $1B to help pave the way for an expected surge in funding from others. coefficientgiving.org/research/in...
the descent may seem fast, but fortunately Starship always sticks the landing
This moral parliament tool is now available as a standalone site: moralparliament.net It now asks you a few clarifying questions, like the chatbots and coding platforms do, which makes it easy and fast to configure new ones. The goal isn't to tell you what to do, but rather to explore the nuance.
Personal Moral Parliament
moralparliament.net
(ignore if you don't like moral philosophy) Rather than making all choices through one framework like "utilitarianism" or "virtue ethics", I favor the idea of a moral parliament. The idea is you may have genuinely conflicting values, and you can treat it as a kind of vote. 🧵 bit.ly/moralparliam...
Inspired by a post from a few years ago, I compiled the data I have on public and private giving into an actual map. givingatlas.org/giving/map.h... If you click through, there is a lot more detail at closer zoom levels and many informative hovercards. Desktop recommended.
The first fly by -- huh, why is everyone clutching their pearls over this, looks cool? The second fly by -- :grinding pearls into dust with my fists: 😡 What the fuck.
I hate this fuckin country what a terrorist shithole of a nation
Elon Musk has been referred for possible criminal prosecution after Wisconsin election officials found probable cause that his $1 million voter giveaways violated the state’s election bribery law.
How much does this/will this impact prices? * About half the throughput can be counterbalanced, at least for some time, through rerouting and reserve depletion * The other half can't, and demand ultimately absorbs it * 20% toll in the short run would lower prices, in the long run decays to alts.
24-hour Hormuz traffic rolling over sharply ... now at just 3. - Schwab
24-hour Hormuz traffic rolling over sharply ... now at just 3. - Schwab
I was able to gather some data on this by category and estimate the remainder, which yields this result. Individuals are largely giving to religion. givingatlas.org/giving/publi...
Are the statistics that differentiate between private and corporate giving not available, or why are they lumped together? Giving by different income and wealth classes would be very interesting.
I didn’t really have much sense of who Senator Graham was until his Daily Show appearance in March 2016 during the primary. “[Why endorse Ted Cruz?] He’s not Donald Trump.” youtu.be/qI3MgHdn9MQ?... Anyway, things changed after that.
Lindsey Graham Wanted Anyone But Trump in 2016 | The Daily Show
YouTube video by The Daily Show
youtu.be
He never deleted it.
attacking commercial vessels on a sunday evening? in this economy??!
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED
I've published these graphs and more as part of Giving Atlas (givingatlas.org ): a free, interactive look at the giving landscape — who gives, where it flows, public vs. private aid, and forecasts for the decade ahead.
Where Does the Money Go? | Giving Atlas
givingatlas.org
Global aid funding 🧵 Total funding by country has generally been rising and exploded for the Ukraine war, but then dropped dramatically as the new U.S. administration pulled out of global commitments like the UN World Food Program. The 2024 Sankey chart shows the flow from/to countries. 1/4