Polling whiffed badly in MI, but I don’t think it was some conspiracy. If Stevens had polls showing otherwise, her campaign or the PACs supporting her could have released those I think everyone just missed - maybe there was major differential response going on
Feels like between these two races, the theme of MI’s primary is the establishment wing of the party being unable to get out of its own way
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 11h agoNYT estimate down to AES +1.6 but only 20% of the vote left outstanding Seems like he’ll squeak it out but I gotta sleep now
NYT estimate down to AES +1.6 but only 20% of the vote left outstanding Seems like he’ll squeak it out but I gotta sleep now
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 13h agoFirst NYT estimate is AES+2, but well within the MOE right now 😵💫
The fact that this was her big scandal is exactly what made her appealing imo 🤪
Magenta@magentab.bsky.social · 13h agodidn't mcmorrow have that whole scandal about her old posts and how michigan trump voters made her miss california? like, i feel like you are whitewashing her too much
2024 kinda killed the idea of WA as a national bellweather but it’s good for predicting itself and results seem broadly very strong for Dems
First NYT estimate is AES+2, but well within the MOE right now 😵💫
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 13h agoIt’s not clear to me that AES will win, because some counties are tabulating eday *first,* but I don’t think I’ll be able to stay up for the results lmao
It’s not clear to me that AES will win, because some counties are tabulating eday *first,* but I don’t think I’ll be able to stay up for the results lmao
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 14h agoAES should win because progressives do a lot better on eday (even with a lot of Wayne out), but it’s not going to be an impressive victory against a truly terrible candidate
Seems like no danger at all for MGP tonight, though I’m sure Hennrich will do better in the later drops
Forstag is not the first Blue Dogs/Bernie(+AOC) co-endorsement Said at the time of the primary that I thought he was the better choice bc his is a district, like Rebecca Cooke’s, where aesthetic might supersede pure ideology
I think MM probably would beat either by 20+ in a world where one of AES or Stevens dropped early, probably by more vs Stevens Kind of like how Bellows beat both Shah and Jackson in RCV h2hs despite being fourth in first choices but on steroids
Zach@zach13x.bsky.social · 13h agoSo McMorrow probably wins if it would’ve been her vs El Sayed it feels like right?
This is kinda like the 2020 primary if the establishment decided to coalesce around Bloomberg instead of Biden
Nick@nturinsky.bsky.social · 14h agowhat are your thoughts on the results so far?
Every progressive/lefty candidate has been immensely outspent this year Stevens is a bad candidate in campaigning terms, but is *also* actually to the right of a generic Dem, which hasn’t been true for many defeated incumbents She’s to the right of both Talarico and Crockett on some issues lmao
Themistocles’ Wall🧑🏻🦽👩🏽🦯➡️🧏🏿♂️@themistocleswall.bsky.social · 14h agobeating $70 MM in dark money, after getting outspent 9-1, is a good victory, even if it’s by 1 vote, imo 😉👍🏼
AES should win because progressives do a lot better on eday (even with a lot of Wayne out), but it’s not going to be an impressive victory against a truly terrible candidate
The real impasta@therealimpasta.bsky.social · 14h agoThat being said, NYT's needle seems to think AES is gonna win?
See some moderate types say they think the year is blue enough for AES/Hong to win, but that it’ll reinforce bad lessons I kinda disagree! I feel like in a scenario where they eke out wins in a D+10 year while their slates romp, everyone will know they’ve flopped horribly 😭
This is exactly what I meant by this btw Gillibrand is *DSCC Chair* and this is so craven while also being incompetent it’s honestly kind of funny She & Schumer wanted to push McMorrow out, but if MM is a socialist, why wouldn’t her support flow to AES?
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 5d agoWe’ve seen exactly how this goes: NYC mayor 2021; Garcia lost by 0.8% to Adams, but Wiley would’ve lost 45-55 (per the CVR) Garcia was ideologically in between, so her voters split but Wiley’s flowed to her. They’ve done the equivalent of insisting on Wiley, ofc it’s failing!
Miller’s video statement is so insane to me it literally sounds like he’s reading from a list titled “things abusers say”
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 3d agoInteresting to me that D PACs, orgs (including DSCC), and politicians all totally dropped Platner as more serious allegations emerged Meanwhile Rs are conspicuously silent on Miller. Even Moreno, father of the victim(!), barely manages condemnation
Interesting to me that D PACs, orgs (including DSCC), and politicians all totally dropped Platner as more serious allegations emerged Meanwhile Rs are conspicuously silent on Miller. Even Moreno, father of the victim(!), barely manages condemnation
Extremely cold take (imo), but if Joe Kennedy had ran this year instead of 2020, he’d beat Markey by like 10-20 And it’s genuinely unfortunate he’s not the alternative this year, bc Markey’s refusal to retire could lead to a materially worse senator than Kennedy
Just want to say I absolutely adore how positive/happy Peltola’s campaign & social media presence have been so far Stands out when we’re constantly inundated with anger, grievance, resentment, and demagoguing. Really hope it gets rewarded!
Purely anecdotal (small n too), but in 2024 the one bad thing everyone thought of for Cruz was Cancun For Paxton, I feel like for a long time it’s been cheating, but I’ve heard more of the predator plea deal recently (prob more bc of Cornyn than anything lol)
We’ve seen exactly how this goes: NYC mayor 2021; Garcia lost by 0.8% to Adams, but Wiley would’ve lost 45-55 (per the CVR) Garcia was ideologically in between, so her voters split but Wiley’s flowed to her. They’ve done the equivalent of insisting on Wiley, ofc it’s failing!
I only articulated my own POV here (didn’t even suggest people act a certain way!) and it also wasn’t the main point of my post, so I’m kind of bewildered by this response But yeah, I look at the global death & suffering caused by this admin and think even Manchin would be highly preferable
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 5d agoUltimately I think every Dem is preferable to every Rep (not accounting for scandal/impropriety) But even if I’d always vote for the D candidate, many (esp this cycle) would benefit from being immensely less annoying expeditiously
Ultimately I think every Dem is preferable to every Rep (not accounting for scandal/impropriety) But even if I’d always vote for the D candidate, many (esp this cycle) would benefit from being immensely less annoying expeditiously
I unironically believe Talarico is ahead rn, but Paxton is broke & would get out-raised by a lemonade stand The R PACs are in a standoff trying to make the others step in bc they *hate* Paxton, but (a lot of) $$$ will eventually flow against JT. Need to see how he holds up then
He’ll own the record for “most words spoken while saying nothing” in no time
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 7d agoWarsh being fed chair is just another in a long list of humiliation rituals What an embarrassment
Warsh being fed chair is just another in a long list of humiliation rituals What an embarrassment
