Down on the Farm

@downonthefarm.bsky.social

Down on the Farm is a newsletter featuring analysis, news, notes and summaries of all things minor league baseball, prospects, and player development ⭕️ Substack: https://downonthefarm.substack.com/ Website with predictions: https://oysteranalytics.com/

Owen: Will anyone care if I write this? Max: Well, Bluesky will care; they love the Boss. Owen: Bluesky loves the Boss? Max: Bluesky loves the Boss. Owen's Springsteen and baseball obsessions combine in this week's article, a fun take on playoff baseball.

Which Springsteen Album Is Each MLB Playoff Team?

Some teams are born into a good life, some get it anyway, anyhow; with our trademark analytical rigor, we match every postseason participant with their “Boss comp”

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We've got a special podcast this week, as we interviewed former Angels P Ryan Smith! We talked about his late-blooming baseball journey, data use in the minors, and the tension between pitch development and maximizing current performance.

Down on the Farm Podcast 9/22/26: Former Angels P Ryan Smith Hops On the Pod

We get a pitcher’s perspective on data in the minor leagues, his late-blooming path to pro ball, and the tension between experimentation and performance

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Check out this month's hottest hitters! We've got smaller-statured players finding enough power to produce, old-for-the-level prospects stepping up and dominating, and well-rounded prospects who, despite lacking standout tools, got it all to click:

The September Hot Streaks That Matter, ft. Welbyn Francisca, Caden Bodine, and More

Oyster projections + streaks model + video analysis = an obsessively rigorous guide to September’s MiLB hot streaks

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This week's content features our last full weekly pearls article of the year, as well as a podcast breaking down the successes and failures of our streaks model, our use of in-person scouting, and a dive into two MLB late-season heaters. Our weekly pearls:

Season Ending Studs: Model Darlings and In-Person Gems Get It Done

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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In yesterday's article, we took a look at FanGraphs' fielding grades, their accuracy, and how our findings shape how you should understand fielding projections. As we are looking to better integrate fielding into our modeling, we figured we'd start by looking at one of the best!

Fielding Grades: The Final Frontier

We look at an industry leader to assess the mysterious nature of baseball analytics’ final frontier: fielding assessment and projections

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We've got another weekly pearls article and podcast for you all! The pearls are an interesting batch of power-happy players with either contact or discipline flaws (and a pair of Sebastians), while our Labor Day special podcast dives into the MLB CBA negotiations.

Pearls “Under the Sea”: A Pair of Sebastians Go Off, HR Hitters Shine

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling, and with a title that Max has assured Owen some people will understand

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Walcott is RED hot, and the biggest reason why is his elevated lift rates. He has always been a big EV guy, but until this season, he had GB% in the 40% range. Now, he's at 31.2% in AA, and he's smashing line drives. With skills like this, perhaps he hits #1 overall?

Sebastian Walcott, Texas shortstop, prospect graphic. Walcott is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 1 Texas prospect. He has a 99% probability of becoming a Contributor, 99% probability of becoming a Regular, and 97% probability of becoming a Star. His relative stats are 2.1 standard deviations above league average in development speed, 0.54 in discipline, 0.48 in avoiding strikeouts, 0.78 in contact, 0.82 in gap power, 0.61 in home-run power, and -0.39 in lift. The career outcome chart shows a very high probability of reaching the Contributor and Regular thresholds, with the distribution remaining above the Star threshold of roughly 3 WAR per season in 97% of outcomes. The probability declines steadily for outcomes above 3 WAR, with relatively few projections reaching 4 WAR or higher, indicating the model views star-level production as highly likely while elite 4-to-5 WAR seasons represent the upper end of the distribution. Player comp: Tim Beckham, 2011. Confidence meter is nearly full.
Rangers Media Bot@rangersmediabot.bsky.social · 3w ago

🔁 @kennlandry retweeted @RidersBaseball Do NOT throw that pitch to Sebastian Walcott... 😮 B1 | AMA 2, FRI 1 https://t.co/a2fSucUDWU

There's nothing more exciting (to us at least) than a freshly called-up prospect who gets his squad to the promised land: the playoffs, or better, a World Series title. These eight prospects have a shot to do so... Who else do you think has the goods?

The Mid-Season Promotions Most Likely to Make a Difference Down the Stretch

We rank eight newly(ish) promoted rookie sluggers by how much of an impact they can make in playoff pushes and, hopefully, October

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We've all heard it before: You put your best athlete in center field, your best arm in right field, and the "other guy" in left field. But is there true merit in playing your bazooka-blessed outfielder in right field? We took a Savant-data-fueled dive into the common wisdom:

Does Arm Strength Actually Matter More in Right Field?

From Little League on, otherwise mediocre fielders with absolute hoses get stuck in right field. Is there wisdom behind the convention?

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Many of this week’s stars are knocking on the door of the big leagues. From a power-hitting first baseman to a pair of outfielders, several standouts close in on an MLB shot, while this week's top man may be the best prospect in all of baseball. Check out this week's pearls:

Are Walker Jenkins’ and Ralphy Velasquez’s MLB Debuts Imminent? This Week in MiLB

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Today's podcast was a fun one, as we had the chance to interview Mariners MLB Field Coordinator Jake McKinley! We talked about his career, how he makes high-pressure decisions, and how he integrates data to form strong relationships with his players:

Down on the Farm Podcast 8/11/26: Mariners Field Coordinator Jake McKinley Joins the Pod

We interviewed Mariners MLB Field Coordinator Jake McKinley on his path into coaching, his player development philosophies and skillset, and his decision-making framework

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Check out our full takes on the hitting prospects on the move during the deadline! From Nimmala to Frias and Hope, we break down the biggest deals and give out our trade grades. Who made out like bandits, and who overpaid?

All You Need to Know About the Top Hitting Prospects Traded at the Deadline

We break out all the models we've got and use in-person and video scouting to give you the down low on what to expect from the big minor league bats on the move

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It was a hectic trade deadline for hitting prospects, and we've broken down the biggest moves! First, we briefly evaluated the prospect-involved trades in this week's Weekly Pearls, and then went more in-depth in today's podcast. Check both out in the replies:

This week’s article features an underrated but potentially very valuable Brewers prospect and a Dodger slugger who gets lost in a ridiculously deep system. We’ve also got a strong week on a guy we’ve called an enigma to report on! Check it out:

More Dodger and Brewer Prospects Come Out of the Woodwork: Last Week's Most Important MiLB Performances

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Spain may have won the World Cup final, but even with Dodgers standout Emil Morales, they'd need some shocking upsets to win our Prospect World Cup! Check out our recent article where we go through a fictional tourney, share our rosters, and pick a champ!

The Prospect World Cup: Who Comes Out Top Nation in a Battle of Future MLB Stars?

Or: a modest proposal for a way to keep us entertained if there is a work stoppage next Spring

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At the halfway point, the Rays are the kings of the minors, followed closely by the loaded Brewers organization. The Mets and Red Sox are at the bottom, despite the latter having a crop of strong-hitting prospects. Highly ranked prospects don't always translate to good records!

Bar chart titled "2026 MLB Organizational Records" with the subtitle "Combined MLB + MiLB | as of July 17, 2026." Organizations are ranked from lowest to highest combined winning percentage.

From left to right: New York Mets (249–318), Boston Red Sox (251–303), Oakland Athletics (244–286), Baltimore Orioles (263–300), Minnesota Twins (247–280), Chicago White Sox (252–284), San Diego Padres (272–297), Detroit Tigers (271–295), Philadelphia Phillies (260–279), Kansas City Royals (272–290), Arizona Diamondbacks (277–294), Toronto Blue Jays (279–289), Atlanta Braves (258–267), Miami Marlins (276–284), Cincinnati Reds (280–284), Pittsburgh Pirates (281–285), Houston Astros (278–281), Chicago Cubs (280–278), St. Louis Cardinals (265–260), Los Angeles Angels (271–265), Seattle Mariners (274–266), Cleveland Guardians (288–279), Texas Rangers (290–278), Colorado Rockies (297–273), Washington Nationals (276–253), New York Yankees (299–265), Los Angeles Dodgers (315–251), San Francisco Giants (318–247), Milwaukee Brewers (315–243), and Tampa Bay Rays (319–243), who lead all organizations.

This week's podcast is a fun one: we interviewed former Reds minor leaguer and current London Met Quin Cotton! We spoke about his career, the use of data and analytics in player development, and the exciting current phase of his career playing in Europe.

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/14/26: Former Reds Minor Leaguer and International Baller Quin Cotton Hits the Pod!

We interviewed Quin about his career journey, the ins-and-outs of player development and analytics from a player's perspective, and the joy of the European baseball circuit

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Not all prospects are trending in the right direction this season! Today's article is devoted to those who are struggling in 2026. We break down their issues, how they can improve, and whether we think they're primed to get there. Check it out below!

Predicting the Fates of Five Prospects on the Struggle Bus

We take a look at five hitters who have struggled to put it all together this year and opine on how (and if) they can turn things around

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Check out this week's podcast where we discuss the fantasy upside of Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, how the potential for a lockout could shape the trade deadline, and how technology changes sport, for better and for worse. Tune in below!

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/7/26: Flexible JKG, Locked in for the Lockout, the Game's Gone

We assess the fantasy upside of Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, how the potential for a lockout could shape the trade deadline, and how technology changes sport, for better and for worse

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