This month, I started a new chapter as a tenure-track Assistant Professor at LSU New Orleans. I’m excited to have several working papers under review that build on many years of policy research and applied economic work. Current projects: www.alibustamante.com/projects

In three years, U.S. job growth outside health care has fallen from 162,000 jobs per month to job losses.

Real wages have declined for 2 consecutive months after 3 years of modest gains. Now workers are facing a weak labor market and less value in the pay they bring home. That is a dangerous mix for workers.

Power At Work@poweratwork.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Labor news is moving fast. Come get the expert take — LIVE. ⚡ Power Half-Hour Ep. #30 | Tuesday, 7/7| Noon ET/9 AM @mrsethharris.bsky.social, @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social, @dralibustamante.bsky.social, @bhamharold.bsky.social Register: www.linkedin.com/events/74755... #PowerHalfHour #LaborNews

The US added 172k jobs in May. 70k came from leisure/hospitality and rest driven by health care and local gov't. This is a strained labor market: headline growth, but only in low-wage service work and the anchor sectors while higher-paying industries pull back.

Spoke on @marketplace.org yesterday about the jobless manufacturing rebound. Demand for manufactured goods is at a 4 year high but manufacturing employment is still contracting, losing more than 300k jobs in the past 3 years. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...

The manufacturing sector is growing, but isn't adding jobs

Production, new orders, imports and exports all increased, according to the latest Purchasing Managers Report from ISM. But according to the Labor Department, the economy has shed 66,000 manufacturing...

marketplace.org

Spoke on Marketplace yesterday: declining continuing claims don’t signal a strong labor market. In a “low-hire, low-fire” economy, fewer people are on benefits not because they found jobs—but because they ran out of time. Signs of a very weak labor market. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...

If continuing unemployment claims are down, why is it so hard to find a job?

Continuing unemployment claims fell by 32,000 the week before last and have been trending down since late last year.

marketplace.org

Since Jan 2025, the US has lost 526,900 jobs in sectors outside health care and social assistance. Now, for the first time in 4 years, healthcare is also experiencing job losses, -18,600 in February.

Today's job's report is further evidence that the healthcare sector is keeping the labor market afloat. The US averaged a loss of 38.9k jobs per month during the last 13 months when excluding healthcare and social assistance employment gains.

Most people don’t know I was undocumented for about half my life—a refugee of the Contra war in Nicaragua. I’m saying this because policy can be arbitrary and separate us on paper but life doesn’t. We’re all in this together, even when policy draws lines.

When restaurants are hiring while higher-paying industries are cutting back, it’s a sign households are under pressure and people are taking whatever hours they can get. Meanwhile, health care is the only major sector that keeps adding jobs across almost every economic cycle.

Today's jobs report tells a familiar story: health care keeps the labor market afloat while much of the rest of the economy treads water or slips backward. Job growth remains narrow—and increasingly dependent on one sector. Read my take in Barron's. www.barrons.com/articles/hea...

The Most Important Industry Isn’t AI. It’s Healthcare.

Artificial intelligence is propping up the stock market, but healthcare is propping up the economy. Government actions might put that at risk, Ali R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

Confusing the stock market with the real economy is the oldest analytical mistake in finance. AI is propping up the stock market. But healthcare is propping up the economy. Read my take in @barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/hea...

The Most Important Industry Isn’t AI. It’s Healthcare.

Artificial intelligence is propping up the stock market, but healthcare is propping up the economy. Government actions might put that at risk, Ali R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

Second appearance on Marketplace in 3 days! Hear my take on the deteriorating job market for college graduates. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

Recent college grads face a challenging job market

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that earning a college degree can still help you keep a job and get higher wages, but it’s less of an advantage than it used to be.

marketplace.org

I was on @marketplace.org today. Nearly all job gains in Sept came from health care and restaurants. When the rest of the labor market is flat or losing jobs, a jump in restaurant hiring means workers are stitching together income, not a booming economy. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

September jobs report shows rise in those holding more than one job

Uptick in restaurant jobs often means people are hedging but taking on a second job.

marketplace.org

Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast. Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now. Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%. HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%. The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.

This labor market downturn is dragging real wage growth to a crawl, with the most financially vulnerable workers—those in low-wage jobs and with limited education—barely managing gains of around 1%. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...

Wage Gains Are Slipping. Low Wage Workers Will Feel It Most.

When economic booms fade, marginal workers suffer most, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

Low-wage workers briefly broke four decades of wage stagnation - then saw those gains erased. On Labor Day, it’s worth asking: why does the business cycle always punish those at the bottom most? My new piece in Barron’s digs in. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...

Wage Gains Are Slipping. Low Wage Workers Will Feel It Most.

When economic booms fade, marginal workers suffer most, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

The labor market isn’t as strong as we thought and it’s getting worst. Read why on @barrons.com Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand. www.barrons.com/articles/une...

Unemployment Dropped. Workers Are Still Losing to Inflation.

This isn’t what a strong labor market looks like, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

Missed the live discussion on worker power and the labor market? Don't worry. Here's the recording of today's Power Half-Hour. It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space. www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...

The Power Half-Hour #4 | LinkedIn

Injecting 30 minutes of power into your week. Join Power At Work LIVE for Episode 4 of The Power Half-Hour at noon ET/11 AM CT/9 AM PT on July 3rd! The Power Half-Hour is a livestreamed, fast-paced,...

linkedin.com

What if the 2021–24 labor market didn’t reflect growing worker power—but rather workers scrambling to recover lost purchasing power amid inflation and nominal wage rigidity? High job openings may have been a symptom of real wage erosion, not a tight labor market. www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Labor Market Dynamics During the 2021-24 Inflation Surge

A Policy Hub paper argues that the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a symptom, and not the predominant cause, of the pandemic-era inflation surge.

atlantafed.org

Two biggest stories below the topline figures showing that the labor market is getting worse: 1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021. 2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.

Simon Rosenberg@simonwdc.bsky.social · last yr.

May jobs report: 139,000 new jobs 95,000 in downward revisions in March/April Only 44k net new jobs this month Ruh-roh Donald.

The 0.2% decline in real GDI is an early warning sign of economic softening, especially when paired with slowing GDP and high interest rates. Points to underlying weakness not yet captured by spending data. www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...

Friends, this is my last month leading the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute. Grateful to have worked alongside brilliant fellows and colleagues for the past 4 years. Optimistic about opportunities to come. Onward. ✊ #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower

Inflation policy requires effective housing policy. Shelter driving more than half of the inflation increase, up 4% OTY. Shelter inflation increased for the first time since last August. Tariffs and high interest rates are not helping. www.barrons.com/articles/wil...

Housing Inflation Is Too High. The Federal Reserve Can’t Fix It.

The Fed’s interest rates are discouraging the housing construction needed to bring down inflation, Alí R. Bustamante writes in a guest commentary.

barrons.com

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · last yr.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in April and were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy, were up 0.2 percent month-over-month and 2.8 percent year-over-year. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

Good topline jobs figures but here are some red flags: -Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed -9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming -Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years

Aaron Sojourner@aaronsojourner.org · last yr.

Happy #JobsDay! At 8:30 am ET, BLS delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing. Forecasts’ center: +133K jobs Unemployment rate (UR) stable at 4.2%

Surge in imports leads to decline, -0.3%, in real GDP in 2025Q1. For context, the US economy grew at a quarterly average of 2.5% last year. www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...

Must read on why we need economic democracy, an economy controlled by the many and not by the few, and how we get there. Perspectives from over 20 great progressive thinkers.

Roosevelt Institute@rooseveltinstitute.org · last yr.

NEW: Americans need a government that delivers stability and security—not chaos. Our new essay collection brings together great minds to imagine how democracy can better deliver the economy Americans need and want. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

Extremely excited to have, the one and only, Paul Krugman join the Roosevelt Institute.

Roosevelt Institute@rooseveltinstitute.org · last yr.

At a time when economic clarity and progressive ideas are urgently needed, we are thrilled to have @pkrugman.bsky.social join Roosevelt as a senior fellow. Join us in welcoming Paul 🙌 rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/doing-g...

Unpacking CPI figures show a mixed picture on inflation: -Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long. -Food inflation still high, and being felt. -Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists. -Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn? Stay tuned!

The Associated Press@apnews.com · last yr.

U.S. inflation declined last month as the cost of gas fell, a sign that price growth was cooling even as President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff threats.

Uplifting the huge impact that the Raise the Wage Act of 2025 will directly have on 22+million workers! We have the power to improve the wellbeing of American workers without the gimmicks and pain of broad tariffs.

Economic Policy Institute@epi.org · last yr.

@sanders.senate.gov & @bobbyscott.house.gov just reintroduced the Raise the Wage Act to ⬆️ the federal min wage to $17/hr by 2030 This increase would impact 15% of the US workforce—over 22 million people—and the average affected worker would make an additional $3,200/yr www.epi.org/publication/...