Outside of local triggering (eg., aftershocks), the global distribution of big earthquakes is random in time. That means there is an average rate (15 M7+ evets/yr) but the time since the last event doesn't matter. Sometimes we see clusters - if there were no clusters, it woldn't be random.

Shallow magnitude 7.3 earthquake 48 km SW of Aquiles Serdán, Mexico earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Interesting times near the Garlock fault. A M4.1 near the western end of the Garlock on Saturday and a M4.1 near the central section a few minutes ago. But neither is actually on the Garlock fault. The first is a thrust fault (maybe the Pleito fault) and today's is in a swarm south of the Garlock.

Caltech Quake Bot@caltechquake.bsky.social · last mo.

M4.1 18km WSW of #Johannesburg, CA, #SouthernCalifornia #Earthquake confirmed valid. Updated analysis coming soon @ www.scsn.org/index.php/earthquakes/latest-earthquake-information/

Just like it takes only 30 people to have a 50-50 chance of a shared birthday, regions with a long history of earthquakes can have a multi-earthquake anniversary. For SoCal, it’s June 28 - 1966, 1991, and 1992.

Thoughts from a seismologist on the Venezuelan earthquakes: We are seeing the damage in Caracas and the most recent models show that Caracas was badly hit. But there are almost 1 million people who received even stronger shaking earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Earlier today @drlucyjones.bsky.social sat down with Dr. Kate Scharer, USGS, to discuss the paper that Kate co-authored regarding the 1000 year high stress on the San Andreas Fault! And how this is not the end of the world, but just a new understanding of its dynamics. buff.ly/u85G8w1

Thoughts About The Earth Ep. 0

Dr. Lucy Jones sits down with Dr. Kate Scharer to discuss recent news regarding the San Andreas Fault and it's "imminent" rupture.

youtu.be

The quake in the Philippines was objectively large, but for a subduction zone, was a bit middling. I spoke to @drlucyjones.bsky.social about why. 🧪

The Philippines earthquake is massive, but it could’ve been bigger—here’s why

The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that hit the Philippines happened at a subduction zone. Such places are capable of producing the largest earthquakes possible

scientificamerican.com

⚒️ 🧪 A M7.8 earthquake occurred beneath the southern Philippines today; the USGS estimates that 1 million people experienced severe shaking; footage shows collapsed buildings. The earthquake occurred within the east-dipping subducting plate that underlies the island.

Deadly M7.8 earthquake rocks southern Philippines

Related to eastward subduction beneath Mindanao

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

In the M7.8 earthquake near Mindanao, 22 million people received Intensity V-VIII shaking so USGS estimates losses >$100M and fatalities >10. It looks like part of the complex subduction of the Philippine plate below the Sunda plate. Tsunami warning for Mindanao. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

The Imperial Valley has seen dozens if not hundreds of these sort of swarms over the century we have recorded. A swarm is a group of quakes (dozens to thousands) where there are many quakes close in size and no obvious mainshock. Often the size will grow like we've seen here going from M3s to M4s.

The Brawley swarm is continuing and getting a bit bigger. It began with a M3.5 at 4:14 pm. After 4 M3s, it gave us a M4.4 at 7:22. Then a couple more larger events M4.0 and M4.5. There is no sign of a drop off in number of events, so we shouldn't be surprised if we see at least a few more M3s.

So 2 areas with swarms ongoing in Southern California. A classic Brawley seismic zone swarm today in the Imperial Valley fault. Largest so far is M4.1. These continue until they stop so we will likely see more M3s tonight and may get bigger.

We have an exciting event coming up to bring music and science together- a collaboration between Colburn School and Caltech. April 25. In The Name of a Warming Earth' - Dr. Lucy Jones localnewspasadena.com/2026/in-the-...

‘In The Name of a Warming Earth’ – Dr. Lucy Jones - Local News Pasadena

Data feels real when it's delivered as emotion Data feels real when it's delivered as emotion

localnewspasadena.com

My last anniversary is the happiest one of the week. Georg Philipp Telemann was born 345 years ago and we are celebrating with an all-Telemann concert by Los Angeles Baroque

The third anniversary of the week. 100 years ago today, LADWP began impounding water at the San Fransquito Dam in northern LA County. Exactly 2 years later on 3/12/1928, the dam failed suddenly and catastrophically, releasing 47million cubic meters of water, killing 430+ people.

Another anniversary. 15 years ago today, the M9.1 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami swept through northeaster Honshu, sweeping away whole towns and killing almost 18,000 people. Five years later, this town of Otsuchi was still struggling with what to allow to be rebuilt.

The 1933 Long Beach earthquake occurred 93 years ago today, beginning near Huntington Beach and rupturing north for 15 miles to just north of Long Beach. It cause strong shaking through much of the Los Angeles region. with the worst damage in Long Beach and Compton.

#EQHistory: 1971 M6.6 San Fernando. The event killed 65. In the aftermath Caltech seismologist Clarence Allen went to Sacramento with a message: geologists know where active faults are and we can prevent building on them. His testimony helped the passage of the Alquist-Priolo Act. buff.ly/Yzs6NPt

Tonight's M4.9 north of Indio is the largest quake in SoCal since the M5.2 near Julian last April.

A M4.9 quake occurred this evening north of Indio. It is east of the San Andreas fault, far enough away to not change the likelihood of a quake on the San Andreas. It's located very near the minor EW-striking Blue Cut fault earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

I’m releasing a few new episodes of my podcast to discuss the science around wildfires podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Getting Through It

Science Podcast · Updated Monthly · In this broadcast, Dr. Jones shares how the world works, why you might feel the way you do about a particular disaster, and how you can manage the chaos around you ...

podcasts.apple.com

Again, Kyle and Judith provide a great summary of the science around this earthquake

Dr. Judith Hubbard@judithgeology.bsky.social · 8mo ago

⚒️ 🧪 Japan just issued a “Subsequent Earthquake Advisory” following a M7.6 earthquake offshore Honshu. What does that mean? Also: what happened in the earthquake, and why did it trigger a tsunami evacuation, with alerts of waves “up to 3 meters high”? earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m76-earthq...

Sometimes, music is the only tool I have for coping with the world. youtu.be/2Xj0KSgD24k?...

This Land Is Your Land

YouTube video by delreyjones

youtu.be

I love xkcd

This was a fun interview. It ended up being quite a retrospective on how seismology has changed over the 4 decades I have been in Pasadena. making-l-a.simplecast.com/episodes/luc...

Lucy Jones: Seismology, ShakeOuts, and String Quartets | Making Los Angeles

What do Chinese literature, medieval string instruments, and earthquake drills have in common? In Los Angeles, the answer is Lucy Jones. Often called “L.A.’s earthquake queen” — a nickname she’s not e...

making-l-a.simplecast.com

In the last 24 hours, we have seen several M3s in 3 locations. The events near Ontario are at the western end of the Fontana trend. The Lytle Creek events are near the San Andreas & the Rialto events are where the Fontana trend intersects the San Andreas. Last week's M4.3 was at the Rialto location

The New York - Philadelphia - Wilmington urban corridor has felt small earthquakes roughly every 2-3 years. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the urban corridor roughly twice a century. So infrequent but not weird

Dr. Wendy Bohon@drwendyrocks.bsky.social · last yr.

M 3.0 - NE of Hasbrouck Heights, New Jersey Did you feel it? Report it! earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

On the M4.3 on the Fontana trend

Looks like a small swarm in the Fontana trend. This M4.2 had a few foreshcoks including a M3.0. The Fontana trend is a NE-striking lineation of earthquakes under the sediments of the San Bernardino Vslley. We believe it is one of the left-lateral striking faults that are south of the San Gabriels.

Caltech Quake Bot@caltechquake.bsky.social · last yr.

#AutoEQ A magnitude 4.2 (MI) #earthquake has occurred 4 mi W of Muscoy, CA at 09:32 PDT Jul 31, 2025 [2025-07-31 16:32 UTC]. #SCSN has not yet confirmed this event. For more info visit http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci41249496#executive

The 7/29/2025 M8.8 looks like a repeat of an earthquake in 1952

Jascha Polet@jascha.bsky.social · last yr.

Another quick comparison of the 1952 #Kamchatka #earthquake from MacInnes et al. (2010) with today’s M8.8 event. The aftershock areas are similar, as well as one region of foreshocks. The updated USGS rupture model has a max slip of 10m versus 12m for 1952, with SW rupture direction. 🧪⚒️