The AI boom in one company: Since 2022, Microsoft's revenue is up 67%, capex is up nearly 5X, and headcount is up... 1%.
Dror Poleg
@drorpoleg.com
I research technology’s impact on work, cities, and markets. Bylines: NY Times, The Atlantic, etc. DrorPoleg.com
If Microsoft were as productive as Meta, it would employ 117,000 fewer people. Two weeks ago, it offered voluntary exit packages to 60,000 employees.
Many jobs no longer exist. They just don’t know it yet. newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/unhired-or...
Are You Unhired or Unfired?
Every economic shock reveals the productivity gains of the era before it. Every expansion sustains jobs that are already gone.
newsletter.drorpoleg.com
The elections were a referendum on AI vs SI, and the people chose AI. Onwards...
What can language tell us about the future? Henry Coutinho-Mason and Rohit Bhargava just published a delightful book with words for emerging situations, conditions, and experiences. A few of my favorites: Menmophobia, Stealthcare, and the Geriatriverse...
AI is about to get its own legal entity. But it'll still need a "warm body" who can go to jail when necessary. Delaware is looking to allow the establishment of AI-run companies. Congress isn't happy about it, but something of this kind will have to exist, and soon.
Creative destruction on steroids: More than 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from models released in the previous six months.
How Will the Elections Affect the AI Boom? 1. Harder to build data centers (partly priced in) 2. Pressure to offload more compute to space AND personal devices ($AAPL). 3. New energy subsidies will make a comeback. 4. Lower hyperscaler capex = happier investors.
Young workers face a frozen job market: Companies aren't hiring, and existing employees aren't quitting, leaving few openings for newcomers.
A year ago, it was shocking that America was investing as much in data centers as it does in offices. Now, it invests twice as much.
Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue to swap people for machines. Per dollar of revenue, their capex is up 3.6x since 2018, while headcount is down 18%.
When intelligence becomes a commodity, humans can sell human attention.
The US can now produce twice as many batteries and solar panels as it did in 2025. But demand is not (yet) keeping up with supply.
Tech billionaires dethroned real estate billionaires from China's rich list. One political implication: It's much harder for governments to control software than it is to control physical assets.
Software developers (and AI) have pushed more code in 2026 than in 2024 and 2025 combined. And it's only October.
In a world of abundant intelligence, the problems are "open-source" and the solutions are "as-a-service." newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/survival-a...
Survival Is Becoming a Subscription Service
In a world of abundant intelligence, the problems are "open-source" and the solutions are "as-a-service."
newsletter.drorpoleg.com
Breaking news from 2019. Ironically, AI might make online collaboration too risky and revive many offices.
From Slop to Flop? "China’s first all-AI feature film cost $1.5m and has made about $180,000"... so far. “Maoyan forecast total takings below 150,000 yuan.” — Ana Maria Constantin, The Next Web
In 2026, Big Tech's revenue per worker is soaring. A few stars get record salaries while thousands of their colleagues are laid off. In 2020, I wrote:
