Georgi Engelbrecht
@duriandiaries.bsky.social
Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.
Some thoughts on the appointment of General Nafarrete as Philippine military chief. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Between highlands and the high sea: What awaits the next Philippine military chief?
Antonio Nafarrete inherits a Philippine military still learning to look outward – and Beijing isn’t making it easy.
lowyinstitute.org
Our new commentary looks at the intersection of the climate crisis and conflict in the Philippine archipelago: www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/asia-pac...
Islands in the Storm: Climate Change and Conflict in the Philippines | International Crisis Group
Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns pose a particular threat to the Philippine archipelago. Absent adaptation measures, climate change could exacerbate the country’s long-running interna...
crisisgroup.org
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage. Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026. It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea... "We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
A reality by March 2026? (2)
COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national
opinion.inquirer.net
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.” www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
crisisgroup.org
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.” @philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz
Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next
theguardian.com
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩 By @fmalufti.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).
navalnews.com
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia
A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.
lowyinstitute.org
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group
crisisgroup.org
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u... "While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News
This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...
news.usni.org
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia. Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president. Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
reuters.com
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election. The polls, however, have been postponed. I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist: open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Spotify – Web Player
open.spotify.com
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
youtube.com
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC Registration: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.
crisisgroup.org
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social. Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
Georgi Engelbrecht@duriandiaries.bsky.social · 12mo ago1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
crisisgroup.org
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
The Philippine government's acquisition of twelve more FA-50 light combat aircraft will not diminish the chances of acquiring other multi-role fighters (MRF) as these are different platforms that would enhance the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) fleet.
abs-cbn.com
