Economics Observatory
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Daily answers to economic questions. Policy briefings, writing & data masterclasses & a new data hub.
As the region swings to the right, development will depend not only on restoring macro stability and improving national security, but also on strengthening institutions, raising productivity, fostering innovation and creating more resilient economies. By Camila Arroyo From buff.ly/iMHbPAz
NEW on the Economics Observatory – What can Colombia expect after the 2026 presidential election? By Andrea Correa 🇨🇴👇 buff.ly/9iJvonv
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JUST PUBLISHED - The development challenge in El Salvador: is lower crime enough? By Frank Muci
The development challenge in El Salvador: is lower crime enough? - Economics Observatory
El Salvador’s government overhauled the country’s security policy and ended gang violence, lifting what was thought to be the main constraint on the economy. There have been measurable improvements…
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President Milei’s stabilisation is delivering results: inflation down, growth back, exports leading the recovery. But Argentina’s second test is harder: turning macroeconomic stability into investment, jobs and higher real wages before the political clock runs out.
Argentina’s second test: can the Milei government deliver lasting growth? - Economics Observatory
In an Economics Observatory article published in May 2024, we argued that the first test facing President Javier Milei’s new government was stabilising the economy: closing the fiscal deficit,…
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JUST PUBLISHED on the Economics Observatory – Can Mexico turn North American integration into lasting economic growth? By Vanessa Rubio-Márquez 👇 buff.ly/QeDQjBU
Can Mexico turn North American integration into lasting economic growth? - Economics Observatory
Mexico is central to the productivity and prosperity of North America – particularly through its role as the United States' largest trading partner. Whether it can turn this relationship into lasting…
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Today, Andy Burnham gave a major speech on the future of social care, calling the neglect of the industry a "major dereliction of public duty.” Across the world’s major economies, caring for the vulnerable and elderly is becoming increasingly challenging as populations age.
Chile has lurched between very different political ideologies in recent years. The latest swing – towards a more market-oriented, right-leaning administration – should be interpreted as a call for a more effective state, not necessarily a smaller one. By Felipe González 👇 buff.ly/aK1US5s
How might Chilean policy-makers deliver effective reforms? - Economics Observatory
Chile has lurched between very different political ideologies in recent years. The latest swing – towards a more market-oriented, right-leaning administration – should be interpreted as a call for a…
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NEW on the Economics Observatory – Can Peru capitalise on the global copper boom? by Luis Miguel Castilla & Teodoro Crisólogo Grández buff.ly/EayTySC
JUST PUBLISHED – Can Peru capitalise on the global copper boom? by Luis Miguel Castilla & Teodoro Crisólogo Grández buff.ly/EayTySC
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Where next for India’s transition to green energy? by Nethra Natajaran
Where next for India’s transition to green energy? - Economics Observatory
India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy…
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JUST PUBLISHED – Where next for India’s transition to green energy? by Nethra Natajaran
Where next for India’s transition to green energy? - Economics Observatory
India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy…
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India's reserves remain among the world's largest. But a stronger dollar, costlier oil and volatile capital flows are testing the resilience of those buffers. Does India’s dependency on US dollars make the economy vulnerable? By Vinod Kumari 👇 buff.ly/D7UbemT
Does India's dependency on US dollars make the economy vulnerable? - Economics Observatory
India's reserves remain among the world's largest. But a stronger dollar, costlier oil and volatile capital flows are testing the resilience of those buffers. Greater export sophistication, a…
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JUST PUBLISHED – What does India need to do to achieve its development vision for 2047? By Kumar Rajesh #India2047 #Vision2047👇 buff.ly/Y9vMYRv
What does India need to do to achieve its development vision for 2047? - Economics Observatory
India’s Vision 2047 development strategy is often framed as a race to high-income status. But state-level evidence shows that converting growth into health, education and human capability is a harder…
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Four UK regions are in a worse fiscal position than Greece was when it needed an IMF bailout. As Andy Burnham prepares to take office on a ticket of greater devolution, the scale of regional fiscal imbalances deserves far more attention than it gets. #ChartOfTheDay
TODAY on the Economics Observatory – How is India’s trade landscape shaping up for the future? by Mayank Khurana
How is India's trade landscape shaping up for the future? - Economics Observatory
After independence in the late 1940s up to the early 1990s, India’s trade policy was transformed: from protectionism to a liberalised economy. As the country moves towards greater global economic…
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Concern about immigration in the United Kingdom far exceeds every other country, even those with similar shares of foreign-born residents. In a 2025 Gallup poll, over a fifth of UK respondents named immigration the nation's top problem, tied with the economy.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is estimated to generate 7.8 million tonnes of CO₂, more than double Qatar 2022. Spectator and team travel accounts for 88% of the total. However, Qatar's central location meant shorter average travel distances, making direct comparisons difficult. #ChartOfTheDay
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits a more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. Big cities need to grow their tax bases to reduce both regional and national deficits.
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
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NEW on the Economics Observatory – Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? by Paul Swinney
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
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JUST PUBLISHED – Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? by Paul Swinney
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
buff.ly
The #FIFAWorldCup quarter-finals begin tonight 🇫🇷🇲🇦 Can Morocco reach another semi-final, or will France book their place in the last 4? Our latest Elo-based simulations preview every tie, including scoreline probabilities and updated chances of reaching the last four. By James Reade buff.ly/15V04r4
World Cup 2026 quarterfinals: is football coming home? - Economics Observatory
With just eight teams remaining in the tournament, Argentina have a 36% chance of lifting the trophy, Spain are at 18%, France at 17% and England at 15%. Scorecasting analysis suggests that the most…
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NEW on the Economics Observatory – Does the UK’s defence investment plan deliver? by Ron Smith
Does the UK’s defence investment plan deliver? - Economics Observatory
A recurrent refrain in commentaries on UK defence policy over decades is the imbalance between resources, commitments and capabilities. Unwillingness to make key decisions about money and cuts means…
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JUST PUBLISHED – Does the UK’s defence investment plan deliver? by Ron Smith
Does the UK’s defence investment plan deliver? - Economics Observatory
A recurrent refrain in commentaries on UK defence policy over decades is the imbalance between resources, commitments and capabilities. Unwillingness to make key decisions about money and cuts means…
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Action to address climate change can drive strong, sustainable growth. The state is central in setting the direction of change and mobilising investment and innovation to achieve it. But time is not on our side. Research to guide policy has never been more urgent; it must proceed alongside action.
What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? - Economics Observatory
Action to address climate change can drive strong, sustainable growth. The state is central in setting the direction of change and mobilising investment and innovation to achieve it. But time is not…
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NEW on the Economics Observatory – What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? by Delfina Godfrid & Nicholas Stern
What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? - Economics Observatory
Action to address climate change can drive strong, sustainable growth. The state is central in setting the direction of change and mobilising investment and innovation to achieve it. But time is not…
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Andy Burnham looks set to become the UK's next PM, with devolution top of his agenda — shifting power from Westminster to mayors & local authorities. But the UK's tax system is deeply centralised. How does it compare to peer countries? 🧵 #ChartOfTheDay
JUST PUBLISHED – What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? by Delfina Godfrid & Nicholas Stern
What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? - Economics Observatory
Action to address climate change can drive strong, sustainable growth. The state is central in setting the direction of change and mobilising investment and innovation to achieve it. But time is not…
buff.ly
With Canada–Morocco now under way, our latest World Cup simulations favour Morocco (70%), England (74%), Spain (72%) and Argentina (77%) to reach the quarter-finals. See the full Elo predictions, and why altitude may not dramatically change England’s odds #FWC26 #CANMAR👇 @jjreade buff.ly/rb7t9mK
The World Cup 2026 round of 16: is football coming home? - Economics Observatory
Scorecasting analysis suggests that the likeliest match winners in the round of 16 are Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, England, France, Morocco and Spain. The altitude in Mexico City will be…
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Job quality matters as much for wellbeing as physical health. Yet we rarely measure it. New research explains why governments should pay much more attention to the quality – not just the quantity – of work. By @francisgreen1.bsky.social buff.ly/6UJrLph
Beyond wages: what makes a good job? - Economics Observatory
People’s wellbeing at work is influenced by various features of their jobs, including autonomy, intensity and prospects. Researchers use surveys to track these dimensions of working life and measure…
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