How did the USA become one of the most propering economies in history? An expansive continent wide market coupled with democratic institution and appropriate public goods and regulations. If we can see this much progress in 250 years imagine how much more we'll see in the next?

It is because we are richer today that we have less household servants. Irish girls in 1862 Boston received a "large wage" of $3k in today's money. Instead of celebrating greater wage equality, we complain. Many folks want superiority, not equality.

Gov Debt is a problem. Who caused it? Republican tax cuts? Unfunded boomer entitlements? With Social Security trust fund running out in less than 6 yrs, current Senate candidates will have to make unpopular decisions.

You can make a career by always predicting an economic crisis. Peter Schiff and Steve Keen spew fear for profit. The formula works. Criticize "mainstream econ" and say a crisis will come. Watch the views roll in. What can we do about it?

Inflation coming in hot! 1. Some is old news, gasoline prices may have peaked in mid May. 2. But Core PPI, which nets out gas prices is trending up. Still reason for concern.

Will Mamdani's government grocery stores solve food deserts? Maybe there is a supply side market failure. Or maybe the nutritional inequality is caused by demand. The research has a clear answer. #equality #economy #economics #data #newyorkcity youtu.be/g5_ylYcrocw?...

Will Mamdani's government grocery stores solve food deserts?

YouTube video by Christopher Clarke

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Big worries in today's Inflation Report. While oil drives the bulk of the increase, we are seeing signs of broader inflation. As @Mike Konczal notes, tariffs affects are still present. Real wages wiped out year long gains in just 60 days. #economy #gasprices #wallet #economics #data

I think we now have real evidence that AI exposure is associated with job decline for age <25. The Canary in the Coalmine paper addresses a lot of concerns. While economic science takes time; now is the time to think about policy responses. youtu.be/Q2qzjBlk_3w?...

We Now Have Evidence AI Is...

YouTube video by Christopher Clarke

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Some nice news this fine Friday! Thank you to many who have helped me and gone out of their way. We're all a product of a community of support.

"We haven't seen a 1%-month spike in inflation for years. Will the Fed respond by raising rates? Their tools focus on the demand side. Oil is an input to production; ie supply side. The Fed can't do much about that." Full Interview Here @cgtnamerica.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFeD...

Who would have guessed five years ago that Journalism (2.3%) would have a far lower unemployment rate than Computer Engineering (7.8%)? Economics is highest paid non-engineering major, but with generally better unemployment. An early career med wage of $72k w/ unemp of 3.5%.

Are more folks working multiple part time jobs since the 80's? No. In fact things got better. Surprisingly, the "gig economy" jobs are at a record low. But instead, folks get more views, more clicks, more as revenue when they say otherwise. Lots of things are getting worse, this isn't one of them.

The supply chain are so bad in the airplane industry that they're tearing apart perfectly good planes! And it will last another 10 yrs! Who knew that Covid disruptions could last this long? This video's got Roswell Aliens, destruction, and me operating an excavator! www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4BU...

This is my uncertainty face. Clarke notes jobs contracted since last year. “The trend has been flat for ten months now." The Fed doesn’t have a lot of room to cut rates to ease job pressures due to inflation. Christopher notes that hiring for young people is “in the doldrums." 🧵

The strait didn't close in the 80's during the Tanker War, it wont stay closed for today's conflict. Modern insurance markets are powerful. They allow the world's commerce to continue even in the face of armed conflict. It prevents a regional war from paralyzing the world's economy.

In Persian Gulf Region: 🟢 Highest GDP per cap: Qatar ($123k, PPP) 🟢Highest Pop: Iran (90M) 🟢Highest GDP: Saudi Arabia ($1.2T, exch rate) 🟢Combined the Gulf Cooperation Council towers over Iran. GDP: $2.3T vs $0.5T 🟢Israel's GDP alone is larger.

Has America stopped manufacturing stuff? No, we produce more than ever. But we need less workers to do it. The tariffs haven't stopped the factory jobs from disappearing. Only by focusing on advanced automated manufacturing can we keep increasing our capacity.

Jon Stewart expressed many common misconceptions about what economists believe. We are not market absolutists. Long have we called for environmental regulations. Another John Stuart (Mill) called the environment the "inheritance of the human race, there must be regulations."

New BLS nominee is a good sign. A career of careful research in data measurement. Unlike the partisan EJ Antoni, the Senate prevented from taking power, we will have competents at our economic data agency. The sector will never produce the same scope, quality, nor transparency as the government.

Ice Budget is bigger than FBI, DOJ, DEA, and all other federal law enforcement combined. To prosecute one crime, it has nearly a third the budget of every state and local police departments & jails. This isn't about budget deficits.

Capping credit cards to 10% will cause more harm than help. Consumer credit is competitive. Price controls create shortages. So instead, Consumers will use Payday Lenders w 300% interest. While evidence is mixed on banning payday lenders, a credit card ban will simply be bad.

MLK noted social & political equality are much easier than economic equality. He was right. While we've seen improvements in the unemployment and income gaps, progress is slow. Wealth gap may take another century.

Can we blame first-class cabins for unruly passengers? A 2016 paper made headlines w claim. I'm skeptical. 1. Huge effect size 2. Doesn't control for alcohol service 3. No replications. 4. Airlines haven't used the results; even in the face of the post-covid "Unruly-pocaplyse."

Were egg Price records explained by greed, monopolies, gouging, or corporate lies? Or was just simple supply and demand? Today, with prices now at all time record lows, basic economic models win out again.

The U.S. has more forests today than we did a century ago. That's despite tripling our population and increasing GDP by 20 fold! New YouTube Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqls... How? Watch the video. This is simply the most gorgeous visit I've done. Northern California is just stunning!

Can coups work? Maybe, but the added uncertainty even when an old regimenis replaced by a good one makes it difficult. Avg treatment effects are significantly negative for GDP per cap. It's driven by a decline in Domestic Investment, not a fall in foreign aid nor FDI. Robust to geography.

Maduro Gone! Usually CIA regime changes don't work out. Maybe it's different this time. Machado/Gonzalez are popularly democratically elected. Is all this really just about oil?

New paper looks at Indiana Covid vaccine effects. Six month gap between 11 & 12-yr-old eligibility gives us out natural experiment. Result: Large spillover among households, but not for schools.

Have housing prices returned to pre-covid levels? No. But Trump's graph is real. It only looks at the mean price for one developer, Lennar. National data still shows a stubbornly high plateau. Build more houses.

Everybody always gets this question wrong: How much does Kevin McAllister's Grocery Basket Cost Today? We need to adjust for quantity changes. It comes at $42.54. Median wages grew even more. It's the most affordable Home Alone yet. youtu.be/kOMKsIlXy_E?...

How Much Do Home Alone Groceries Cost Today?

YouTube video by Christopher Clarke

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