The Iran conflict continues to put upward pressure on energy prices and create uncertainty leading to lower investment. But what does it mean for Wales specifically ? My thoughts at wcpp.org.uk/blog-posts/t... @niesrorg.bsky.social

Post: The impact of the Iran conflict on the Welsh economy

Professor Stephen Millard of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research explains some of the major economic consequences of the Iran war on Wales and some ways the Welsh Government might r...

wcpp.org.uk

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest NIESR-CFM survey focused on the Prime Minister's new policy approach centered on more devolution Panellists are not convinced greater devolution will significantly raise aggregate UK productivity relative to alternative policy approaches⤵️

July 2026 CfM-NIESR Survey: Devolution and UK Policy Alternatives - NIESR

Experts responding to the July 2026 CfM-NIESR survey downplayed the impact of greater devolution on UK economic growth relative to other policy approaches

niesr.ac.uk

Ahead of the #interestrates decision by the Bank of England today, read our updated Monetary Policy dashboard to get full insights ⬇️ What are the monetary policy rules telling us the bank rate should be? niesr.ac.uk/monetary-pol...

Monetary Policy Dashboard - NIESR

What factors affect the MPC members when they are assessing Bank Rate? Our dashboard contains analysis of the main determinants and likely policy responses.

niesr.ac.uk

'There are a lot of demands to increase government spending, ... but given where we are with the debt level, we need to be thinking quite hard about tightening our belts to allow us to make room for these spending demands' Director David Aikman on @listentotimesradio.bsky.social yesterday 📻⤵️

This month marks the centenary of the publication of John Maynard Keynes’ essay ‘The End of Laissez-Faire’. Senior Economist Ben Caswell evaluates the policy proposals outlined and asks whether, a century on, is there anything from the essay we could revive today? niesr.ac.uk/blog/a-centu...

A Century Since the End of Laissez-Faire - NIESR

A century on from the publication of "The End of Laissez-Faire", this blog summarises the main points from the essay and evaluates the policy proposals.

niesr.ac.uk

The latest Economic Outlook is now fully free to access🔓 A reminder that we will be going live with our Economic Forum shortly - Joins us here ⬇️ niesr.ac.uk/reports/econ...

Economic Outlook: A Challenging Inheritance - NIESR

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

niesr.ac.uk

National Institute of Economic and Social Research@niesrorg.bsky.social · 7d ago

⏰24 hours to go to the Economic Forum's kick off We will be presenting the findings from our latest UK Economic Outlook which has been in the news this week, and that will be fully free to access tomorrow morning 🔓 Join us signing up here 📝⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/event/summer...

@bartvanark.bsky.social reflects on his time at TPI, the community it has built, and the importance of aligning research, policy and business. A big thank you to Bart for all his work and leadership at TPI. Read his farewell blog: www.productivity.ac.uk/news/product...

Productivity, Place and the Power of Alignment: Reflections on Six Years at TPI - The Productivity Institute

Bart van Ark reflects on six years at The Productivity Institute, exploring productivity, place, policy alignment and the value of collaboration.

productivity.ac.uk

The latest NIESR-@cfmuk.bsky.social survey has just been published📊, focusing on the PM's approach to devolution Panellists are not convinced greater devolution will significantly raise aggregate UK productivity relative to alternative policy approaches Read more here⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/news/july-20...

July 2026 CfM-NIESR Survey: Devolution and UK Policy Alternatives - NIESR

Experts responding to the July 2026 CfM-NIESR survey downplayed the impact of greater devolution on UK economic growth relative to other policy approaches

niesr.ac.uk

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ The latest UK Economic Outlook suggests the new Chancellor faces a 4% real spending squeeze by the end of the decade - equating to approx. 24 billion in 2023 prices - because of higher and more persistent inflation 📉 Read more here⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/reports/econ...

"We are paying an enormous amount of money each year in debt interest costs - £110 billion - roughly the size of the whole education budget" Director David Aikman speaking to Sally Bundock early - well, very early- this morning on BBC News about the economic challenges facing the new government ⬇️

#WeekendReading 🔖 Can shifting power away from Westminster truly fix regional inequality in the UK? In our last #MondayInterview, @adrianpabst1.bsky.social assessed Andy Burnham’s ambitious devolution push—including proposals like a "No 10 North" ⤵️

Assessing Burnham’s Devolution Drive - NIESR

Assessing Andy Burnham’s devolution agenda, this blog examines his plans to rebalance power away from Westminster, Manchester’s recent productivity performance, and the policy options facing the new…

niesr.ac.uk

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #inflation figures showed signs of cooling, but what is likely to happen in the months -and year - ahead? Huw Dixon's new #blog explores some different scenarios and -spoiler- there is not much good news ⤵️

UK Inflation: The Calm Before the Energy Price Storm Hits - NIESR

Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.6 per cent from 2.8 per cent in May.  Monthly price growth between May and June 2026 was lower than expected at 0.1 per cent and lower than in 2025 at 0.3 per cent,…

niesr.ac.uk

The labour market is currently stuck in a "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic⚡️🔥 The latest #Wage Tracker has just been published and suggests real wage growth is likely to come under pressure as nominal growth slows but price inflation picks up. Read more here ⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/publications...

A Low Hire, Low Fire Labour Market - NIESR

“Although labour demand remains weak, this is being matched by a weakening of labour supply, which continues to act as a cap on the unemployment rate, which remains stable at… To access the content, m...

niesr.ac.uk

Our reaction to the latest #inflation figures is out now⚡️ #UKeconomy #UKgovernment #CPI #EngergyPrices #VAT

⚡️Inflation down but not out⚡️📉 Our latest #inflation tracker is out now and suggests that, while recent drops offer relief, underlying price pressures—from energy caps to global supply chain volatility—mean the fight against inflation isn't over yet. Read more here⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Inflation: Down, But Not Out - NIESR

For a breakdown of what inflation is and how it is calculated, read our blog post here.   “Today’s ONS figures show annual CPI inflation came in at 2.6 per cent… To access the content, membership acco...

niesr.ac.uk

Can Andy Burnham deliver on his ambitious public investment goals without rethinking the UK's fiscal rules? In his latest #blog Director David Aikman looks at why front-loading fiscal adjustments might be necessary and why it ultimately is the 'least bad option' ⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/blog/should-...

Should Burnham Front-Load The Fiscal Squeeze? - NIESR

How should Andy Burnham approach his economic policy? This blog examines whether fiscal tightening should be front-loaded and what fiscal-monetary policy mix is needed.

niesr.ac.uk

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #LabourMarket figures is out now ⚡️ #UKeconomy #UKgovernment #CostOfLiving

Is regional devolution the key to unlocking UK economic growth? In our latest #MondayInterview, just published, @adrianpabst.bsky.social explores whether shifting fiscal power and decision-making away from Westminster could reshape regional economic governance⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/blog/assessi...

Assessing Burnham’s Devolution Drive - NIESR

Assessing Andy Burnham’s devolution agenda, this blog examines his plans to rebalance power away from Westminster, Manchester’s recent productivity performance, and the policy options facing the new g...

niesr.ac.uk

#WeekendReading🔖 How might #AI transform economics and change how economists conduct research, analyse data and develop theory? In the last #MondayInterview economists Peter Dixon and Charlotte O'Leary assessed the impact of #Artificialintelligence on macroeconomics⤵️

Mystical Macroeconomics: Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Macroeconomics - NIESR

How is AI changing economics and forecasting? We began by discussing a simple taxonomy of artificial intelligence (AI) which presented the overlapping nature of machine learning, deep learning,…

niesr.ac.uk

#WeekendWatching 📺 ICYM our webinar earlier this week on how to tackle the youth unemployment challenge, you can watch it back here ⤵️ The webinar discuss the #MilburnReview’s key findings to explore wider questions for UK labour market policy

Tackling the Youth Employment Challenge: Assessing the Milburn Review, Data Gaps, and Regional Disparities - NIESR

Using the Milburn Review's key findings to explore questions for UK labour market policy, this webinar will discuss issues surrounding youth employment.

niesr.ac.uk

Incoming Prime Minister Inheriting a Stagflationary Economy 📊⚡ Senior Economist Ben Caswell shares his views on the UK economy ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS #GDP figures coming out #UKeconomy #GDPgrowth #NewPrimeMinister

Good to contribute to this @impetus.org.uk report with our analysis We will be discussing some of these issues at our webinar tomorrow on how to tackle the #youth unemployment challenge Still time to sign up here ⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/event/tackli...

Tackling the Youth Employment Challenge: Assessing the Milburn Review, Data Gaps, and Regional Disparities - NIESR

Using the Milburn Review's key findings to explore questions for UK labour market policy, this webinar will discuss issues surrounding youth employment.

niesr.ac.uk

Impetus@impetus.org.uk · 3w ago

Today we launched ‘Closing the Youth Jobs Gap,’ which reveals that the UK Government pays an average £244,000 price tag for each young person who becomes NEET. This crisis isn't inevitable - our 14-point roadmap shows how we can fix it: https://www.impetus.org.uk/policy/youth-jobs-gap

Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now⚡️📊 #GDPgrowth #UKeconomy #UKGovernment @fergusjimeneze.bsky.social

Is UK #inflation set to climb again? This blog by Jon Tepper, Huw Dixon, Jane Binner and Barry Jones analyse different scenarios, one of which sees inflation climbing up to 4.5 per cent early next year📈 Read here in full ⤵️

Inflation Could Climb Up To 4.5 per cent Early Next Year - NIESR

In this blog we present updated forecasts from our Multi-Recurrent Neural Network (MRN) inflation model, extending the outlook from June 2026 to May 2027. This is our third MRN update of the year,…

niesr.ac.uk

With Andy Burnham becoming PM on Monday, this week's #DirectorsView argues that the alternative to some fiscal adjustment now to make the fiscal path more credible is a larger adjustment in the future when the probability of delivery may be low. niesr.ac.uk/blog/should-...

Should Burnham Front-Load The Fiscal Squeeze? - NIESR

How should Andy Burnham approach his economic policy? This blog examines whether fiscal tightening should be front-loaded and what fiscal-monetary policy mix is needed.

niesr.ac.uk

My thoughts on the Chancellor’s record.

National Institute of Economic and Social Research@niesrorg.bsky.social · 3w ago

With a change of Chancellor likely next week, @econstevem.bsky.social uses this blog to reflect on Rachel Reeves' economic legacy. For the next Chancellor, whoever they may be, the central challenge remains the same: how can debt be reduced without further tax rises? niesr.ac.uk/blog/one-las...

⚡️ OUT NOW ⚡️ The latest #GDP Tracker suggests that good news for the UK economy are ending in the second quarter as early estimates point to much slower growth in the third quarter of the year 📉 Read more here ⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/publications...

All Services, No Substance - NIESR

“GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in May as modest growth in the services sector offset falls in production and construction. But headline services growth overstates the sector’s momentum, with… To access the...

niesr.ac.uk

Manchesterism or Manchesterisn’t? See what @jpspencer.bsky.social @joepeck.co.uk and I have made of its performance under Andy Burnham… www.productivity.ac.uk/research/is-...

Is Greater Manchester growing significantly? If so, why? And what can we learn? - The Productivity Institute

Has Greater Manchester become one of the UK's strongest-performing city regions? This paper investigates the evidence behind the "Manchester Model", examining growth, productivity, investment and gove...

productivity.ac.uk

Don't forget to sign up to our next webinar happening on Thursday: 'Tackling the #Youth Employment Challenge' A great panel to discuss the #MilburnReview’s key findings, and to explore wider questions for UK labour market policy. Full details here⤵️ #YouthUnemployment niesr.ac.uk/event/tackli...

Tackling the Youth Employment Challenge: Assessing the Milburn Review, Data Gaps, and Regional Disparities - NIESR

Using the Milburn Review's key findings to explore questions for UK labour market policy, this webinar will discuss issues surrounding youth employment.

niesr.ac.uk

Is the economic promise of Artificial Intelligence a tangible reality or just "mystical macroeconomics"? 🌐✨ In our latest #MondayInterview, just published, economists Charlotte O'Leary and Peter Doxon break down the true macroeconomic impact of #AI ⤵️ niesr.ac.uk/blog/mystica...

Mystical Macroeconomics: Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Macroeconomics - NIESR

How is AI changing economics and forecasting? We began by discussing a simple taxonomy of artificial intelligence (AI) which presented the overlapping nature of machine learning, deep learning, natura...

niesr.ac.uk