The "struggle for the soul of the party" would obviously get a lot worse if Democrats manage to lose the midterms. I take a look at the possible carnage. Not predicting anything like this; just examining the possibilities. nymag.com/intelligence...

What Happens If Democrats Blow the Midterms?

Democrats are widely expected to flip the House and maybe even the Senate. If not, there could be hell to pay.

nymag.com

Nice to see the post-Callais gerrymandering rush wound up biting at least one white Republican pol in the ass. And it couldn't happen to a nicer guy than the bigot Andy Ogles. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump’s Grip on GOP Slips Again With Tennessee Loss

A Republican gerrymander accidentally took down the fiery Islamophobe Andy Ogles, despite Trump’s backing. Marsha Blackburn was luckier.

nymag.com

Francesca Hong's personal story made her affordability pitch especially compelling. Unfortunately, it also made her Thanksgiving gaffe harder to shake. nymag.com/intelligence...

Wisconsin’s Messy Governor’s Race Adds Thanksgiving Drama

Francesca Hong is probably still going to win her primary. But old social-media posts about abolishing Thanksgiving aren’t helping her.

nymag.com

I looked back at my first take on the Wisconsin gubernatorial race in late March, and it seemed pretty calm and straight-forward with lots of choices. Not any more. nymag.com/intelligence...

Wisconsin’s Messy Governor’s Race Adds Thanksgiving Drama

Francesca Hong is probably still going to win her primary. But old social-media posts about abolishing Thanksgiving aren’t helping her.

nymag.com

FWIW, I've been hearing about Adam Hamilton's church for a long time. It will be fascinating to see if Republicans try to attack his theology as they've done with Warnock and Talarico. You know, the ol' "you can't love Jesus unless you hate gay folks and don't trust women." nymag.com/intelligence...

Kansas Primaries Give Democrats a Shot at a Big Upset

Gubernatorial nominee Cindy Holscher and Senate nominee Adam Hamilton are about the strongest ticket Democrats could hope for in this red state.

nymag.com

It didn't get much national attention given the cliffhanger in Michigan, but Kansans once again defeated a ballot initiative designed to undermine abortion rights, and Democrats got themselves about as strong a statewide ticket as they could have reasonably expected. nymag.com/intelligence...

Kansas Primaries Give Democrats a Shot at a Big Upset

Gubernatorial nominee Cindy Holscher and Senate nominee Adam Hamilton are about the strongest ticket Democrats could hope for in this red state.

nymag.com

Darline Graham not just running for the Senate. She's running away from her brother's legacy. Hardly seems right, since I don't believe she'd be in the position without him. nymag.com/intelligence...

Darline Graham Is Running Away From Lindsey’s Legacy

South Carolina’s appointed senator wants to be known as the heir to her late brother but the ideological servant to Donald Trump.

nymag.com

For federal employees and contractors and everyone else who relies on a functioning federal government, the big test over a possible shutdown is coming early. Unfortunately, the key figure is once again Donald Trump: nymag.com/intelligence...

Will Trump Let Thune Avoid a Government Shutdown?

The Senate GOP leader has a tentative deal on a stopgap spending bill. But Trump could instantly kill it.

nymag.com

At least earlier red scares took place in the context of actual international communist threats, however exaggerated or misunderstood. This one is 100%, not just 90%, demagoguery, and the people stirring it up know it. nymag.com/intelligence...

The GOP’s Big Red Scare Is Really Stupid

No, Democrats aren’t communist, and the relatively small progressive surge in primaries isn’t a Bolshevik Revolution.

nymag.com

To a remarkable extent, Trump has created all of the problems that are frustrating his agenda in the Senate. But nobody's willing to say directly to him: "Shoulda thought about that before you forced Tillis into retirement and purged Cornyn and Cassidy." nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Reaping Whirlwind From His Senate Purges

His agenda is jammed in the Senate due to Republican senators he ousted or alienated. Intraparty strife is also a bad look for the midterms.

nymag.com

Democrats can't keep Republicans and the media from exaggerating or distorting their differences, but they can stop contributing to the "civil war" narrative their own selves, at least until November. nymag.com/intelligence...

Democrats Need to Postpone Their Civil War

There will be time enough for fighting each other after the midterms. Doing so now helps the GOP make this election a choice rather than a referendum.

nymag.com

As an honorary Iowan, I'm sad, but not surprised, to say the long-time First-in-the-Nation-Caucus state was left far out of the charmed circle of early Democratic contests. But Iowa will likely still go first among Republicans. nymag.com/intelligence...

South Carolina Will Go First in 2028 Democratic Presidential Primaries

Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, New Mexico and Virginia also earned early-state status. Iowa is out in the cold.

nymag.com

Interestingly, South Carolina is the state that proved you don't have to go first to have a decisive effect on the nomination. Biden won there in 2020 after finishing fourth in Iowa, fifth in New Hampshire, and second in Nevada. nymag.com/intelligence...

South Carolina Will Go First in 2028 Democratic Presidential Primaries

Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, New Mexico and Virginia also earned early-state status. Iowa is out in the cold.

nymag.com

So Republicans aren't the only South Carolinians in the news this week. nymag.com/intelligence...

South Carolina Will Go First in 2028 Democratic Presidential Primaries

Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, New Mexico and Virginia also earned early-state status. Iowa is out in the cold.

nymag.com

Nobody in SC is going to forget for a moment what Trump did to Pamela Evette in the June gubernatorial primary: endorsed her, then panicked and co-endorsed her runoff opponent, which destroyed her candidacy. Could he do the same thing to Darline Graham? nymag.com/intelligence...

Also-rans Abound in the Race for Lindsey Graham’s Seat

Blasts from the past like Mark Sanford and Trey Gowdy could be in the field, along with some 2026 losers. Then there’s the late incumbent’s sister.

nymag.com

Special primary to choose successor to Lindsey Graham turning into a real mess. August primary (and then probably runoff) in SC means hellish weather and a small turnout of fanatics. And Trump gambit to clear field for Darline Graham clearly failed. nymag.com/intelligence...

Also-rans Abound in the Race for Lindsey Graham’s Seat

Blasts from the past like Mark Sanford and Trey Gowdy could be in the field, along with some 2026 losers. Then there’s the late incumbent’s sister.

nymag.com

Mike Johnson is happy as a clam, and off on recess. Now John Thune gets to bury as much of Trump's legislative agenda as he can dare. nymag.com/intelligence...

Thune to Take the Blame for the Failure of Trump’s Agenda

The House keeps passing legislation Trump wants, but it can’t get through the Senate. That’s making the majority leader a target for MAGA wrath.

nymag.com

If you're interested in John Fetterman's bizarre situation, I've written a pretty thorough explanation about how or whether he'd have the leverage to consider a party-switch, with some bonus discussion of Lisa Murkowski as a possible counter-weight. nymag.com/intelligence...

John Fetterman’s Party-Switch Calculus

The erratic Pennsylvania Democrat is flirting with a party flip. If the midterms produce a narrow Senate majority, he could have massive leverage.

nymag.com

To put it mildly, I'm no fan of the fiscal hawks of the House Freedom Caucus. But you almost have to feel sorry for how Mike Johnson and Donald Trump have played Lucy with the football to their Charlie Brown when it comes to the extremely unpopular budget cuts they want. nymag.com/intelligence...

Johnson Promises Hawks Huge Safety-Net Cuts … Next Time

The Speaker keeps putting off hugely unpopular cuts to social programs. Now they’re supposedly coming in a fourth reconciliation bill.

nymag.com

Darline Graham appears to have more political chops than she was given credit for. The lede image in this post shows her looking like the cat that ate the canary. Might just be a coincidence, but somehow I don't think so. nymag.com/intelligence...

Darline Graham Is Maneuvering Herself Into a Full Senate Term

Originally a temporary fill-in giving Republicans a chance to sort out their options, Lindsey Graham’s sister seems to be making a power move.

nymag.com

LOLd when Trump claimed the PRC had paid "large sums of money" to journalists to write negative stories about him. Believe me, Mr. President, I need no bribes to write negative stories about you. They often write themselves, as they did after this abominable speech. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Drags America Deep Down the Rabbit Hole

In a White House address, Trump spouted wild election conspiracy theories. Damage to the midterms could be profound.

nymag.com

So Trump's speech was both overwhelming (a Red Chinese conspiracy so immense!) and underwhelming (no specifics, not much energy, plus the pro forma "everything's great" lead-in and the usual tired SAVE America Act pitch). But it was above all exhausting. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Drags America Deep Down the Rabbit Hole

In a White House address, Trump spouted wild election conspiracy theories. Damage to the midterms could be profound.

nymag.com

It is reasonably clear that in Trump's mind the calendar is stuck on, and will always be stuck on, January 6, when his "patriots" failed to reverse his one big defeat. Think about that if as expected he rants and snarls about 2020 tonight. nymag.com/intelligence...

Republicans Are Dreading Trump’s Speech — With Good Reason

For years, many Republicans have tried to avoid engaging with his election denial. Tonight, he’s rubbing their faces in it.

nymag.com

GOP jitters over Trump's speech tonight are a good example of the difference between known unknowns (how far down the election denial rabbit hole will he go?) and unknown unknowns (whatever else might pop into his head and then come out of his mouth?). nymag.com/intelligence...

Republicans Are Dreading Trump’s Speech — With Good Reason

For years, many Republicans have tried to avoid engaging with his election denial. Tonight, he’s rubbing their faces in it.

nymag.com

Looking like Johnson may get away with giving Trump a stunted facsimile of the SAVE America Act. But there are other problems with Reconciliation 3.0. nymag.com/intelligence...

Mike Johnson Tries to Appease Trump With Third Reconciliation Bill

The Speaker is trying to break Trump’s legislative logjam by giving him Iran-war funding and a watered-down SAVE America Act.

nymag.com

Most of the country looks at the latest ICE atrocities and is outraged or at least concerned. In MAGA-land, it's "Yes, more of this please!" And of course Trump chooses to give them what they want. nymag.com/intelligence...

MAGA Won’t Stand for Limits on ICE Brutality

Efforts to rein in ICE tactics and poorly targeted mass deportations have been met with a backlash from Trump’s base.

nymag.com

I will say this: making Trump doing "fireside rants" the face of the GOP going into the midterms is a more accurate party message than any other it could devise. He's not going to become more coherent in the next two years. What you see is what you get. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump to Deliver Fireside Rant to the Nation This Week

He has scheduled a prime-time speech for Thursday night and plans to deliver regular Oval Office addresses on a “potpourri” of topics.

nymag.com

My colleague Chas Danner came up with the term "fireside rants" for the abominable series of Addresses to the Nation Trump is threatening to do, and it's spot-on. Will it finally occur to a broader audience that Trump's signature Weave is just rambling incoherence? nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump to Deliver Fireside Rant to the Nation This Week

He has scheduled a prime-time speech for Thursday night and plans to deliver regular Oval Office addresses on a “potpourri” of topics.

nymag.com

If Reconciliation 3.0 somehow does get enacted, it will feature deeply unpopular social services cuts paying for a deeply unpopular war. Not exactly swing voter bait. Republicans may just decide this is the last chance to do their worst before they lose the trifecta. nymag.com/intelligence...

The Republicans’ Congressional Mess Just Got Even Worse

Lindsey Graham’s death complicates their efforts to avoid a government shutdown and enact Trump’s agenda before the midterms.

nymag.com

I'm getting fascinated with the profoundly screwed up state of the GOP agenda in Congress. Could produce the calamity of a failed reconciliation bill followed by a government shutdown. nymag.com/intelligence...

The Republicans’ Congressional Mess Just Got Even Worse

Lindsey Graham’s death complicates their efforts to avoid a government shutdown and enact Trump’s agenda before the midterms.

nymag.com