The rally continues as gold tops $4,400 per ounce, up 2.45% on the day. #economy #gold #markets #investing #investors

Further to my previous post: Here's the reaction in US government bonds yields -- this as market expectations for a September rate hike drops by some 15 percentage points to 42%. #economy #markets #federalreserve #bonds

Two initial takeaways from a US Jobs Report that saw job creation fall well short of consensus (-23,000 vs. +80,000 expected), accompanied by heavy downward revisions to prior months (-103,000), yet the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1% (from 4.2%): Not good news for Main Street: The decline ...

On the misreading of Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair: www.ft.com/content/aea2... #economy #markets @financialtimes.com #federalreserve

Welcome to US Jobs Friday. Consensus is expecting a “no-drama” report for headline payrolls and the unemployment rate (below). While the headliners will attract market attention, also keep an eye on: Labor Force Participation: Can better supply help the labor market and economic growth? Average...

Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report and -- more importantly for most Fed officials -- next week's CPI inflation data, markets see a 57% probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Kalshi has it at 50% (below). #economy #markets #federalreserve

A few things to watch beyond the main macro headlines: Copper at another record high: Strong global demand continues to intersect with supply tightness, now compounded by export disruptions in the DR of the Congo (Bloomberg chart below). Alphabet’s bond sale: The company... 1 of 2

Today’s data provides fresh confirmation of US economic resilience, as another sub-200,000 jobless claims print landed alongside stronger-than-expected productivity and muted labor costs: Initial Jobless Claims: 199,000 (vs. 205,000 consensus) Q2 Productivity: +1.4% (vs. 0.6% consensus... 1 of 2

The gold price is back at mid-June levels. #economy #markets #gold

The US labor market watch continues today with the release of the ADP report, where the consensus forecast is looking for 65,000. This follows yesterday’s JOLTS, which showed a fall in vacancies. It comes ahead of Friday’s big Jobs Report, where consensus is looking ... 1 of 2

It's worth noting that, for once, the global macro context is unusually calm this morning, at least as judged by the market prices that drive the system: Major bond yields and key currencies are essentially unchanged, oil is trading in a tight range, and the KOSPI’s daily ... 1 of 3

While much of the commodity focus has understandably been on highly volatile oil prices, it's worth keeping in mind what is going on elsewhere. This includes copper, which traded above $14,000 earlier today (see Bloomberg chart), driven in part by the "demand side" of the ongoing AI revolution.

Quarterly corporate earnings can serve as a vital check and complement to macroeconomic data. That’s true for this earnings season, where over 80% of reporting companies have beaten expectations, reinforcing the narrative of an impressively resilient US economy. ... 1 of 2

Back to the Yen: In an interview with Becky Quick and Joe Kernen on CNBC’s Squawk Box just now, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined why the joint FX intervention extends well beyond narrow issues relating to Japan's currency market. Specifically, he highlighted: 1 of 3

... and this from The Economist. #ai #tech #economy #markets @economist.com

Good morning. These charts are from the WSJ article, "The AI Boom Is Transforming the American Economy Beyond Recognition: AI has rapidly become a huge economic factor while affecting everything from capital investment to how much you pay for an iPhone." #economy #markets #ai #tech @wsj.com

From Javier Blas's article, "The Global Oil Cushion Is Depleted, Not Exhausted:" "The energy industry’s latest panic is that it’s about to hit “tank bottoms” — the minimum amount of crude in storage required to keep the conveyor belt that goes from oilfields to ... 1 of 2

For those who, rightly, continue to monitor the Korean stock market: The KOSPI fell 5% today. While significant in absolute terms, it's a relatively contained move compared to the recent wild swings (Bloomberg chart below). #economy #Korea #markets #stocks #kospi #investors #investing

It’s unusual to see Japan and Argentina together in the same economic story (WSJ below). Yet, Both countries have benefited from significant US foreign exchange market backing. In both cases, currency intervention was accompanied by strong words of support from President Trump and Treasury... 1 of 2

Good morning. This WSJ chart illustrates how one of my major themes for this year—economic and market dispersion—played out even within tech during the last ten days of July. #economy #markets #tech #stocks @wsj.com

The one constant in the oil market remains price volatility. Brent crude opened the week down 5% in Asian trading. #economy #markets #oil #energy

The Japan-US strategy is to try to use strong words as a substitute for actual market intervention for three key reasons: Discourage markets from testing the resolve of both authorities; Avoid collateral damage and ... 1 of 2.

I'm being asked why the US broke a decade-plus policy of not interfering with the market-setting of exchange rates. I suspect the drivers include: Trade Competitiveness: Washington sees an excessively weak yen as a drag on American trade competitiveness, not just in bilateral trade with... 1 of 3

Please find below the usual monthly table of returns for major asset classes/assets. #economy #markets #investors #investing #gold #bitcoin #bonds #stocks #oil

My weekly look at the global economy and markets notes: The extent to which economists and investors are being reminded that the structural ground beneath us all is highly fluid, featuring last week tech deleveraging, historic currency interventions, and a significant surge in long-term US yields...

The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets

The Context Economists and investors were reminded yet again that the structural ground beneath us all is fluid in a week characterized by dramatic developments in global equity markets, highly unusua...

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The Economist's Big Mac (currency) index is 40 years old! economist.com/interactive/... #economy @economist.com #fx #currency #markets

More on the Yen: Per the @financialtimes.com: "The US Treasury intervened in yen exchange rates on Friday, marking the first time Tokyo and Washington joined forces to support the Japanese currency via outright purchases in nearly 30 years. ... 1 of 2

. @economist.com

Thank you, Jon, Matt and Steve, for the interesting conversation. @cnbc.com #economy #markets

As the initial yen rally (post $50 billion intervention by the Japanese authorities) began to lose steam, the US stepped in with a late Friday assist, the second in the last 24 hours (Bloomberg below). This helped the yen appreciate back. The big question remains: Will this intervention hold? #yen