Tessera

Model Updated Post-GW20 📊 Here is a pack of data: 🖥️ Simulated Table (4 Jan) 📅 GW21 Match Predictions 🥅 GW21 Goal Involvement ⚽️ GW21 - 26 Predicted Goals

Leeds - Man United Post-Match Report 📊 Outcome not too far away from expectations. This is roughly what it looks like when a mid-table side faces a strong promoted side. These are the kind of fixtures you need to see Man United win 3-0 if you want to believe they're improving.

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (1 Jan 2026) A big weekend of results for Arsenal. The likelihood of becoming champions has increased to 71%. 🏆 The points gain for Arsenal will be greater from me than from other sources because I rate Aston Villa and Sunderland lower than the consensus.

Volatile performances, but no doubt in my mind that Maresca was a success at Chelsea. The youngest squad in the league transformed into the 4th-best team in an increasingly competitive landscape. I don’t see this change making them better.

This is the worst Liverpool have been in years.

Simulated Premier League Table 📊 (28 Dec 2025) 📈 An incredibly unlikely run from Aston Villa sees them fighting Liverpool for 3rd place 🏆 Man City keeping Arsenal honest ⬇️ West Ham going down

Michael Kayode has a very interesting carrying repertoire. In particular, he can suddenly decide to go on an adventure across the field (see the long red lines below). This sends me into my frequent spiral about what matters and what is measurable in football 1/

Premier League Simulated Table 🎄 (22 Dec) ⬆️ Aston Villa somehow creep into 4th place 🤏 Just 8 points separate 6th and 13th ⬇️ West Ham looking likely to go down #JusticeForPotter

Simon @analyticf.pl · 10mo ago

Without Bruno, United’s projected goals would only fall slightly. A single absentee always has less impact on the team than people imagine. Cunha profiles well at ~0.7 goal involvement.

Comparison of team strength models (@analytic.football @elevenify.com @solioanalytics.com) going into GW17. Goals scored/prevented/difference vs league average

This is the strongest Man United have been since Amorim arrived. However, it’s only about on par with the level of the side he originally inherited. In the context of how competitive the league has become, this might be considered progress.

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (15 Dec 2025) Arsenal's 10-point projected lead from last month is now down to just 4 points 📉 European places continue to be a battle of mediocrity 🤷‍♂️ Sunderland keep getting away with it ⬆️

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (8 Dec 2025) Arsenal fans can start feeling a little nervous 🏆 Another huge week for Leeds ⬆️

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (4 Dec 2025) 📉 Liverpool not finishing top 3 is becoming feasible ⬆️ Really important week for Leeds 🇪🇺 Europe places are so competitive Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Here’s the weekly change in overall rating so far this season 📈 Each panel uses an independent scale, so you can see how sentiment is trending for each team

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (9 Nov 2025) Man City making sure Arsenal don't get comfortable. Most interesting relegation fight in years. Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Performance vs Expectations 📊 (5 Nov Update) As a reminder, this model view shows who’s really improving or declining by factoring in what most expected stats ignore: fixture difficulty, game state, red cards, pens, finishing, and more.

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (3 Nov 2025) A simple week overall, with results mostly in line with expectations. Except one: West Ham’s surprise win keeps the relegation battle exciting. Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Premier League Simulated Table 📊 (26th Oct) Almost impossible for Arsenal to mess it up now 🏆 Wolves are the new favourites for 20th. ⬇️ Source: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...

Steve Madeley@stevemadeley78.bsky.social · last yr.

Wolves have flirted with relegation for too long. Since 23/24, they’ve shown no improvement, just stagnating at relegation standard. Benefiting from good bounces and weak promoted sides. At some point, that luck runs out.

FULL TIME WOLVES 2-3 BURNLEY First half from Wolves was dismal, with a couple of goals from nowhere to sugar-coat it. Second half was spirited but still flawed and ultimately fruitless. Another must-win game lost and 0 points from 9 against the promoted sides. Wolves bang in trouble. #WWFC

elevenify@elevenify.com · last yr.

This is your weekly reminder that Arsenal are going to win the Premier League 🏆

Arsenal will win the Premier League 🏆

Most of the “expected” data content you see is still misleading, even in GW7. It ignores context like fixture difficulty, game state, red cards, penalties, finishing, etc. This model view adds that context back in, giving you a clearer picture of change in performance levels.

Arsenal will win the Premier League 🏆

A huge win for Arsenal. They gained 3.1 points on Liverpool in the title race (based on pre-gameweek expectations). Sometimes 3 points will feel like they’re worth more! Big swing.

Where does everyone stand after GW5? 📊 Model and website updated 🔄 Liverpool extend their lead 🏆 Leeds looking increasingly safe from relegation 🔒 Top half finish would be a success for Aston Villa at this point 📉

THE AMORIM DECISION. In this weeks post, I explore the question of what should Man United do with Ruben Amorim. www.elevenify.com/p/2526-05-th...

The Amorim Decision.

What should Man United do with Ruben Amorim?

elevenify.com

What should Man United do with Ruben Amorim? Newsletter decision analysis in your inbox tomorrow 📩

GW 3 - 8 Team Projections 📊 Some team goals and clean sheets for the BlueSky crowd. Remember these are always available in live updating tables on this page here: www.elevenify.com/p/premier-le...