The United States has created a new Marine Minerals Administration. The MMA will oversee mining on the continental shelf (which is allowed under UNCLOS). But America is also pursuing mining in international waters. foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/04/t... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

Yesterday the spokesman if Iran's foreign ministry said that “under no circumstances will the Strait of Hormuz return to the situation before the war (February 28)". Iran and Oman are negotiating what it will look like. This is why the issue of transit passage is so crucial.

Elisabeth Braw@elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 4d ago

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threat Initiative's new report is out - and it's about the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, about transit passage. Transit passage guarantees ships' rights in straits. And it's in peril. www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/sco..., by yours truly. No paywall.

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threat Initiative's new report is out - and it's about the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, about transit passage. Transit passage guarantees ships' rights in straits. And it's in peril. www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/sco..., by yours truly. No paywall.

Threats to the global maritime order

Learn more about the Atlantic Council's project "Threats to the global maritime order: Protecting the freedom of the seas."

atlanticcouncil.org

Britannia, restore governance of the waves. The global maritime order is deteriorating. The UK can lead a global coalition to shore it up. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

Another 11 Russian vessels hit by Ukraine in the Sea of Azov. The total tally is now 116 ships (!) over the past nine days. Remarkable figures. One can question the Ukrainians' tactics. But they're succeeding.

Russia is very publicly acknowledging its links to the shadow fleet - by speeding up shadow vessels' reflagging to Russia. One LNG tanker even turned up with a machine gun mounted. That brings risks for coastal states. But an opening too. foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/08/r... Me @foreignpolicy.com.

Big news regarding Nord Stream yesterday: A London judge ruled that the explosions were a war-like act. For @prospectmagazine.co.uk I wrote about the court case - and the new reality in which judges have to define what constitutes war. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/73... No paywall

What is an act of war?

In a London court, the owner of Nord Stream is squaring off with its insurers over an explosion that hit the pipelines nearly four years ago

prospectmagazine.co.uk

David Petraeus: "A masterful and compelling book by one of the most insightful observers of modern strategic competition . . . Timely, authoritative, and highly relevant, The Undersea War is essential reading for policymakers, business leaders, and citizens alike." I'm humbled. (Out on 8 Oct)

Poland's acquisition of three new submarines to be made in Sweden is a sign of the times. It's part of the growing undersea protection (more about it in The Undersea War). But also part of fast-growing European cooperation. Great work by all involved.

Great investigative reporting on the shadow fleet, once again, by @danwatch.dk. The machine guns mounted on this Russian shadow tanker are an extremely concerning development. And a reckless provocation by Russia.

Jakob Kjøgx Bohr@jakobbohr.bsky.social · last mo.

You want to see some wild photos? Check out our newest story about a Russian LNG-tanker in the Baltic Sea with heavy machine guns and fortified positions on top of the bridge. Crew lists show that Russian military and intelligence personnel are on board the vessel. Full story (in Danish):

Sweden has launched a business council chaired by the CHOD and the DG of the Civil Defence Agency. The council allows the military, civil defence and the private sector to coordinate on crucial issues. A great initiative - at virtually no cost. www.politico.eu/article/hybr.... Me @politico.eu

The Russian cyber attack that cost the UK £2 billion. Yes, it was a Russian group that attacked Jaguar Land Rover last summer, @nytimes.com reports. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/w...

A $2.5 Billion Whodunit: The Hack That Dented the U.K. Economy

nytimes.com

Now the MOU has been formally signed. But Trump says the US can start bombing again. And the MOU says Iran will "make arrangements using its best efforts" to allow safe passage of commercial vessels through the SoH without charges for 60 days. Will shipping return to somewhat normal levels?

Foreign Policy@foreignpolicy.com · 2mo ago

Until the official agreement is signed, ships attempting to transit Hormuz will do so amid legal fog, writes columnist @elisabethbraw.bsky.social.

Hormuz: Let the oil flow, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. But can ships take him at his word? And who will, in fact, administer the maritime procession through the strait, including the order? foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/17/t... Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

Can Ships in the Gulf Take Trump at His Word?

Amid the uncertainty of Trump’s deal, how will ships decide when to leave the Persian Gulf?

foreignpolicy.com

(And: The Undersea War is less than four months away...)

Elisabeth Braw@elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Subsea cable ownership is changing. Massive cables used to be owned by multinational consortia. Now US hyperscalers can afford their own cables (designed for their own traffic). This brings risks. Think two-tier traffic. Think national security. www.ft.com/content/f0d8... Me @financialtimes.com

Subsea cable ownership is changing. Massive cables used to be owned by multinational consortia. Now US hyperscalers can afford their own cables (designed for their own traffic). This brings risks. Think two-tier traffic. Think national security. www.ft.com/content/f0d8... Me @financialtimes.com

Tech’s private subsea cables are a threat to everyone else

By building their own data highways, American hyperscalers are creating a national security risk for other countries

ft.com

Finland is energetically tackling cable incidents using the power of the law. Now it has charged the captain and another officer on the Fitburg, which hit cables on New Year's Eve. yle.fi/a/74-20231651

Russia's use of gig agents: Acts as different as arson attacks against Keir Starmer and vandalism of London mosques were instigated by Russia and carried out by locals. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... Great work by the police and investigative journalists, who have uncovered the links.

This morning the UK followed through on its promise to board shadow vessels. Good news. Sweden, Finland, France and others have already conducted numerous boardings. This has become indispensable as the shadow fleet becomes more brazen. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... (report from April)

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

The shadow fleet—a collection of vessels transporting sanctioned cargo outside the official shipping system—has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally.

atlanticcouncil.org

Does a stray drone - like the one that struck a block of flats in Romania a few days ago - constitute an attack? @thespectator1828.bsky.social asked me to elaborate. Naturally, I also included wise observations from @oanalungescu.bsky.social. spectator.com/article/does...

In parts of Europe, national defence is becoming a popular movement. Eg: in Sweden, the government needs motorcycle couriers who can transport crucial items in case of a crisis - and people are signing up. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... Me @theguardian.com. No paywall.

Europe's business advantage: the rule of law. And that's a crucial advantage, because without the rule of law it's impossible for businesses to plan. And what they want most of all is the ability to plan. www.politico.eu/article/euro... Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

My latest @politico.eu column. (As always, no paywall.)

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 2mo ago

COMMENTARY: Across the business world, companies are realizing they’re on the new front line and need to figure out how to navigate today’s tumultuous political landscape. On this, Europe has an advantage.

I have good news: Western multinationals are turning patriotic. Only 16% now say they'd put profit ahead of the national interest. Remarkable times. Me @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

What constitutes an act of war? That matters greatly, because greyzone ("hybrid") activities are exploding. Now a London high court judge will have to define war. She's about to rule in the Nord Stream case. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/73... (Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall)

What is an act of war?

In a London court, the owner of Nord Stream is squaring off with its insurers over an explosion that hit the pipelines nearly four years ago

prospectmagazine.co.uk

The EU is planning to reshore some manufacturing of critical medicines. A laudable and important effort. Healthcare is part of national security. foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/13/h... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.) Pictured: a vivid memor of PPE shortages during Covid.

The suspension of US delivery of defence equipment (like ammunition to Estonia - orders that the buyers had already paid for) will cause allies and partners to buy more equipment elsewhere. foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/29/t... Estonia must now find ammo elsewhere. Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

Some countries are busy strengthening their defence and that of NATO. This week and next Sweden is conducting a significant exercise (Aurora 26) It's doing so with 11 other NATO members plus Ukrainian drone forces. That's how it's done.

A mysterious Russian wanted to buy a struggling golf club - located near the railway serving the UK's main submarine-manufacturing shipyard. When @financialtimes.com started investigating, he pulled out www.ft.com/content/19a3... (with comments by yours truly)

Russian oilman tried to buy golf course on railway to British nuclear site

Purchase of Lake District club collapsed this week after government officials and the FT raised questions over strategic location

ft.com

With fossil fuels trapped in the Persian Gulf, dams (and the reservoirs that store the water) are looking highly attractive. And they're located right in Europe. My latest column for @politico.eu.

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 3mo ago

COMMENTARY: While oil and gas remain on the geopolitical front line, dams and their adjacent reservoirs could help reduce the EU’s energy dependence. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/euro...