Chinese leaders see growth at risk of falling below target in the second half of 2026, as new-economy sectors such as AI fail to offset the slowdown in traditional industries. Our experts say that Chinese officials continue to prioritize risk containment over near-term growth.

China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July on demand slump, typhoons

China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July, as the export rush that powered a second-quarter rebound began to unwind.

cnbc.com

Food commodities like wheat, corn, and rice could jump 10 to 18% by next summer. Our expert Nick Kraft says the combination of the forecasted Super El Niño and ongoing wars in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine create an increasingly uncertain environment.

Food commodity prices predicted to jump

Ongoing wars, plus a “super El Niño” this year, could lead to sharp price hikes at the grocery store.

marketplace.org

President Trump's attempts to interfere in Brazil's election will backfire and only help Lula. Eastern European countries should worry more about Russia than Greenlanders should about US annexation. @ianbremmer.com answers your questions for @gzeromedia.com

The Houthi escalation, Venezuelan democracy, Putin in a corner, and more: Your questions, answered

Ian Bremmer answers reader questions about geopolitical risks and potential conflicts, from the Middle East and the South China Sea to Ukraine and Venezuela.

gzeromedia.com

The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the anticipated Super El Niño are two key factors that could push food prices higher. Our expert Nick Kraft breaks down the state of the agricultural sector for BNN Bloomberg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnkKpKOuXwg

Second Hormuz shock hits agriculture prices

YouTube video by BNN Bloomberg

youtube.com

Last week, our summer interns completed their firmwide presentations – and they did not disappoint. Topics this year included: US foreign policy after Trump, the impact of the Iran war on the AI landscape in the Gulf, and global semiconductor supply chains.

How likely is it that Trump will sabotage the midterms? His willingness to do so won’t necessarily resonate with his ability to succeed. @ianbremmer.com answers this and other @gzeromedia.com readers’ questions about Greenland, UMSCA, and the Iran war:

Trump’s midterm play, Iran’s ticking clock, Ukraine’s edge, and more: Your questions, answered

Ian Bremmer answers questions straight from you, GZERO readers, on whatever has been on your mind.

gzeromedia.com

“Trump appears to be stuck,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social. He’s comfortable with air strikes and efforts to degrade Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, but appears unwilling to significantly escalate against more vulnerable targets.

Trump ‘stuck’ in Iran war stalemate

“Trump appears to be stuck,” Eurasia Grp’s Gregory Brew. “While this pace of operations is manageable, it likely won’t be decisive. Iran can absorb US strikes without shifting its position on Strait.”

diplomatic.substack.com

Margaret Thatcher stayed in power longer than the last five UK prime ministers… combined. The shelf life of prime ministers is shrinking - can Andy Burnham reverse this trend? #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com

Morocco stayed in the spotlight throughout this World Cup — and will again in 2030, when it becomes a co-host. But that spotlight hasn't only brought praise. A crackdown on demonstrators protesting World Cup spending worsened the country's impunity score. atlasofimpunity.com

"China is now putting everything behind technology to raise productivity," says our expert Dan Wang. "That is the only way out, and also the best way out." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-bets-faster-state-backed-projects-shore-up-growth-avoid-broad-stimulus-2026-07-16/

China bets on faster state-backed projects to shore up growth, avoid broad stimulus

China can stabilise economic growth this year by accelerating already-budgeted national infrastructure investment projects, economists and one government adviser said, reducing the likelihood of large...

reuters.com

What would be the final ranking of the World Cup quarter-finalists if the metric was impunity? Hint: Messi, Yamal, and Mbappé wouldn't make the podium.

Trump doesn’t want to own a “forever war,” but after June’s MOU bought him a few more weeks of quiet, he decided he doesn’t have an appetite for a bad deal either. @ianbremmer.com examines what this means for the Strait of Hormuz: @gzeromedia.com

The US-Iran ceasefire is over. What’s next?

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced the United States would reimpose its naval blockade of Iran, effective Tuesday afternoon. Iran responded by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to all tra...

gzeromedia.com

France hasn't seen the far right this close to power since 1944. @ianbremmer on what Marine Le Pen entering the presidential race means for Europe's most consequential upcoming election. @gzeromedia.com

Europe’s most consequential vote since Brexit starts now

After a French court shortened her ban on holding public office, Marine Le Pen announced that she will run for president again next year. But can she finally win?

gzeromedia.com

Putin finds himself in the tightest spot since he came to power. And with that pressure, the risk of a game-changing attack increases. @ianbremmer.com on what could come next for the war in Ukraine for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:

The Putin Escalation Risk

Ian Bremmer warns that Russia's isolated, aging, and frustrated leader could soon feel compelled to do something rash.

project-syndicate.org

It isn't just the internet, GPS, and electric cars that have changed since America's bicentennial. Nearly half the population is now Black, Asian, or Hispanic — more than twice the share from 50 years ago. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com

Have we passed the peak of Trump-induced foreign policy chaos? @ianbremmer explains that Trump's not done causing trouble, but his capacity to do long-lasting damage has peaked. @gzeromedia.com

“Everyone now knows Iran can close the strait whenever they want,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social. That risk will be built into oil prices moving forward. https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/06/trump-iran-deal-oil/687564/

Oil Prices Might Not Go Back to Normal Anytime Soon

There’s a big difference between reopening the Strait of Hormuz on paper and actually resuming the flow of oil through it.

theatlantic.com

What does the new memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran mean for oil prices? Our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social sat down with @intelligencer.com to discuss why oil prices didn’t ultimately reach the excessively high levels that people feared:

The Iran War Is Over. Now When Do Gas Prices Come Down?

Iran and oil expert Gregory Brew explains how long a return to normalcy might take.

nymag.com

As countries grow increasingly concerned about food and energy security, our expert Dan Wang says they’re looking to build up local capacity. China supplies many of the critical components necessary to build up capacity, which means these countries are now more reliant on Chinese exports.

China's exports are 'indispensable' to global economy: Eurasia Group

Dan Wang from Eurasia Group says China is a major beneficiary of the increase in U.S. AI capex, with AI-related exports driving growth. She also thinks that China's strength in supplying critical comp...

cnbc.com

The 2026 World Cup will feature a record number of players representing countries other than the one in which they were born. This reflects a relaxation in FIFA’s eligibility rules in 2021, which allowed players to represent countries other than their birthplace. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com

Even with a cessation of hostilities, our experts say it may take several weeks for oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to reach even 50% of its pre-war levels. Shipping and insurance companies will want to be confident the pact will hold.

Oil prices sink, stocks soar after Trump announces deal with Iran

Markets rally on expectations that the agreement will ease global energy supply concerns, though analysts warn gas prices may remain elevated for some time.

cbsnews.com

President Trump’s war with Iran may be the single greatest accelerant of the global transition to post-carbon energy. @ianbremmer.com explains how the conflict has made fossil fuel dependency dangerous – it’s no longer an economic argument, but a strategic imperative. @gzeromedia.com

Trump, the accidental green president

Rising energy prices is prompting countries worldwide to hasten their moves to renewable energy. It’s all thanks to the most fossil-fuel-friendly president in American history.

gzeromedia.com

Trump’s recent softer stance on China clashes with his admin’s hardline approach. Our expert David Meale says converting Trump’s positivity into actual policy change will run up against a deeply institutionalized Washington consensus on China risk.

Trump has an understanding with Xi. His own administration doesn’t like it

US president’s warmer tone towards Beijing has raised hopes in China, but US tariffs, export curbs and lawmakers tell a different story.

scmp.com

Three major factors likely to shape economic and political outcomes over the next several years: ➡️Politically unconstrained AI development ➡️A shift from the logic of globalization to zero-sum thinking ➡️Heightened international tail risks @ianbremmer.com unpacks for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social

The Key Forces Now Shaping Markets and Geopolitics

Ian Bremmer thinks the next few years will be defined by unrestrained AI development and heightened global tail risks.

project-syndicate.org

Israel defied pressure from President Trump and responded to Tehran's ballistic missile attack with their own strikes against Iran. The move comes amid increasingly widespread negative views of Israel around the world. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com

Our expert Jeremy Chan says the division within the South Korean conservative party hampered its prospects with swing voters. The PPP did surprisingly well in some contested districts, incl. the Seoul mayoral post, which could indicate a 2028 revival.

The South Korean local election is an endorsement of Lee Jae Myung's pragmatic policies: Analyst

Jeremy Chan, Senior Analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, says the division within the South Korean conservative party hampered its prospects with swing voters, but it still did surpr...

cnbc.com

Our expert Amanda Hsiao argues that there is little risk of a military invasion of Taiwan in the near-term. China believes its long-term strategy is working, and that unification will become easier and less costly over time. @warontherocks.bsky.social

Is Time on China's Side? Beijing's Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power

Podcast Episode · War on the Rocks · June 4 · 51m

podcasts.apple.com

The shift on the economic and security benefits of EU membership reflects new threats and challenges coming from beyond Europe’s borders. Our expert Nick Reiners says there’s a sentiment that Europe’s only choice for survival is to team up. @gzeromedia.com

Iran has demonstrated that it has the power to close the strait and keep it closed, even in the face of immense US and Israeli bombardment, says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social. “And that is something no one will ever be able to take away from them.”

It’s easy to say that countries should have been better prepared for the energy supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Our expert Henning Gloystein says these type of disruptions occur every decade, and the reliance on two suppliers created a structural vulnerability.

The U.S.-Qatar Domination of Gas Left the World Dangerously Exposed

nytimes.com