Tessera

What the f*ck. The first week of NHL Free Agency is always the most active, and 2026 gave us some absolute bangers. We spent the entire episode covering as much of it as we could fit in (or remember). www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 187: NHL Free Agency Week 1 - Evolving Hockey Podcast

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Free agency starts tomorrow! Our full preview article is up on the site. It's time. We spent the entire episode covering all things free agency. That's it. That's why we get up in the morning. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 186: NHL Free Agency Preview (2026) - Evolving Hockey Podcast

Free agency starts tomorrow! Our full preview article is up on the site. It's time. We spent the entire episode covering all things free agency. That's it. That's why we get up in the morning.

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Evolving Hockey Free Agency Preview Time! It's 2026. The free agency class sucks. Let's find some value! evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Screenshot of the beginning of the linked article

## Announcement ## GAR Projections for the '26-27 NHL season are now updated for pro subscribers on the site. Check 'em out: evolving-hockey.com/stats/player...

Screenshot from the Evolving Hockey GAR projections page.

Top players shown:
Nathan MacKinnon
Connor McDavid
Quinn Hughes
Nikita Kucherov
Jason Robertson

It's officially the offseason, and the EH Podcast's transition was messy. We spent the first bit discussing (the twins') football ignorance while understanding football analytics. Later we analyzed all the trades and contracts your heart could desire. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 185: Messy Trades and World Cup - Evolving Hockey Podcast

It's officially the offseason, and the Evolving Hockey Podcast's transition was a little messy - please be patient. We spent the first bit discussing (the twins') football ignorance while understandin...

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The Carolina Hurricanes are your 2026 Stanley Cup Champions! We spent the whole episode analyzing what went right for the Canes, Vegas, and the playoffs overall. Within that, we reminisced about hockey stats history and its evolution. This one was fun! www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 183: Celebrating Hockey Analytics - Evolving Hockey Podcast

The Carolina Hurricanes are your 2026 Stanley Cup Champions! We spent the whole episode chatting about the series, analyzing what went right for the Canes, and how the playoffs shaped up overall. With...

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And with that our daily updates for the 25-26 NHL season are complete! We hope you've enjoyed the ride, and now on to free agency and (for us a lot of) off-season work!

EH Past Games Page showing the last game of the 25-26 season: CAR at VGK, 2026-06-14 rolling win probability. CAR goes up 1-0 early, has a sizable win probability advantage, and wins 3-0

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com · 2mo ago

ICYMI: here’s our 2026 Stanley Cup Finals preview!

The Haters Final Begins! Let's Hate. Or I guess cheer for one of the teams. Whatever you want to do. Our preview is up! evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Screenshot from the linked article.

Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (P1)
77.4% | 22.6%

Simulation shows Carolina winning in five games, although six and seven games are not the far off. The only player for Carolina below average is Frederik Andersen. Vegas has five players below average, although their high-end skaters are arguably better than the Canes.

Game 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals is here!

EH Game Prediction: VGK 35.8% - 64.2% CAR

CAR with the strongest forward and defensemen groups. Carter Hart in net for VGK, Frederik Andersen in net for CAR

It's time. The 2026 Stanley Cup Final starts today, and we spent the first 10 minutes discussing the Jurassic Park franchise and sports movies. Once the important things were necessarily covered, we talked Hockey for the rest of the episode (I promise)! www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 183: Stanley Cup Final! - Evolving Hockey Podcast

It's time, and we're here. The 2026 Stanley Cup Final starts today, and we spent the first 10 minutes discussing the Jurassic Park franchise and sports movies. Once the important things were necessari...

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The Haters Final Begins! Let's Hate. Or I guess cheer for one of the teams. Whatever you want to do. Our preview is up! evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Colorado may get swept (they did, but we didn't know it at the time), and Carolina's quantity-domination's resulted in shaky outcomes. We spent the whole episode analyzing everything like only we can (talking about pickup kickball and the Staals). www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 182: Conference Finals - Evolving Hockey Podcast

The Conference Finals have started off just like everyone thought! Colorado may get swept (they did, but we didn't know it at the time), and Carolina's quantity-domination's resulted in shaky outcomes...

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Honestly, it's getting kind of ridiculous at this point.

Screenshot of the cumulative xG totals chart from Evolving Hockey from CAR / MTL through three periods, 2026-05-25.

CAR: 5.22 - MTL: 1.93 (all situations)
Score: 2-2

Carolina with numerous spikes, Montreal small gradual increase over 60 minutes.

2026 NHL CONFERENCE FINALS It's time. The four teams we all expected. evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

CAR / MTL
77.4 % - 22.6%

Carolina most likely in 5 games.

Full roster for both teams listed. Carolina has the significantly stronger roster with only Frederik Andersen graded below average.

COL / VGK
87.7% - 12.3%

Colorado win most likely in five games.

Colorado has the much stronger roster. All players above average: all players grade out over 60 except for Nicolas Roy and Brett Kulak. Vegas has nine players below 60.

We had some severe scheduling issues over the last three weeks, but we're finally back! We spent the first half discussing the second round and professional bowling. Later we dug into our contract model and the upcoming offseason. It's good to be back. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 181: Contract Projections! - Evolving Hockey Podcast

We had some severe scheduling issues over the last three weeks, but we're finally back! We spent the first half discussing the second round and professional bowling. Later we did a deep-dive into our ...

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Beautiful

EH Win Probability Chart: BUF 8 - 3 MTL, 2026-05-16... MTL goes up 3-1 at the end of the first period and then gives up 7 consecutive goals (several empty netters)

Bob Ross's Mountain Reflections painting

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com · 3mo ago

ICYMI: our contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason are up on the site! Check ‘em out!

## Announcement ## Contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason are now live on the site for Pro subscribers! We also wrote a little article about the updates this year. Have fun! Projections: evolving-hockey.com/stats/contra... Updates: evolving-hockey.com/blog/contrac...

Screenshot of the Evolving Hockey Contract Projection page/table.

Top five players listed:

Connor Bedard
Jason Robertson
Artemi Panarin
Leo Carlsson
Adam Fantilli

Apologies again, but we had to delay the release of our contract projections. After some double-checking, we felt it necessary to ensure our understanding of the new CBA was correct (mainly, when the new max term limits go into effect). We're hoping to have them out tomorrow morning.

PSA: We’re planning to release our contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason either Monday or Tuesday this coming week (May 11/12th). We’re working on finalizing them right now and should have a short article on the site (and a post here) when they’re up!

The Avs posted almost 0.5 more xG in the first period tonight than the Habs had in their entire game an hour ago. The Wild weren't actually that far off either. Hockey.

Screenshot of the cumulative xG chart from Evolving Hockey

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, 2026-05-03
Score: MIN 2 - COL 3
xGF (All sit): MIN 0.81 - COL 1.43

Not very often you see a team win any game (let alone game 7 on the road) with a single-digit shot total. The shot attempts were actually much closer (50-42 in TB's favor), but the xG differential here mirrors what the game looked like. The disparity in shot locations between each team is wild.

Cumulative xG chart from Evolving Hockey

Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 2026-05-03
xGF (all sit): MTL 1.03 | T.B 2.45

Low event affair overall, very few high event xG values here.

Shot chart plotted on ice rink for the aforementioned game. Almost all of Montreal's shot attempt came from a distance, with only two shots over 20%. Tampa's shots are much closer to the net and far more frequent.

The second round of the NHL playoffs begins today (for some reason). Here is our "EMERGENCY PREVIEW" for the CAR/PHI series. That's all for now. We'll hopefully have COL/MIN and VGK/ANA up tomorrow morning. LETS GO (begrudgingly, but still quite excited)! evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Screenshot of the series visualizations from the linked article.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Philadelphia Flyers
86.9% / 13.1%

Carolina's roster includes only above average players except ofr Frederik Andersen. The Flyers roster is somewhat deep with above-average players, but multiple players are below average, and the Hurricanes have ~9 players better than anyone on the Flyers (per our models).

EvolvingWild@evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com · 3mo ago

Regarding our second round projections: we’re currently not able to run the sim until the first round has finished… So, we’ll have the article out a day or two after the first round finishes. Shooting for a Monday release.

What??? Flyers vs. Hurricanes starts tomorrow??? Oh c’mon! God dammit

The Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild are 1st and 2nd, respectively, in EV goal differential per 60 (score adjusted) through the first round of 25-26 playoffs - this very likely won't change. They'll meet in the second round and got there in wildly different ways.

EH Team Std Table (EV), 25-26 Playoffs through 2026-04-30: Table showing COL (+2.13) and MIN (+2.03) as the highest EV goal differential teams per 60

Anaheim is moving on to the second round! Game 6 was somewhat close from a shot metrics standpoint, but Anaheim was the overall better team for the whole series.

EH Game Shot Chart (EV, Adj): EDM at ANA, 2026-04-30. NHL Rink with diamonds of various colors (shot type) and sizes (xG value of shot). EDM 3.27 - 2.40 ANA in xGF