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Dmitry Grozoubinski

@explaintrade.com

Author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade | Trade and Negotiations Explainer. Forever D&D DM. 🇺🇦 Born. 🇦🇺 Raised. 🇨🇭 Based. Media and training: explaintrade.com Consultancy network: auroramacro.com Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com

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Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 6h ago

Mearsheimer approaching year five of having to invent elaborate new justifications for why his hypothesis of an unstoppable Russian juggernaut that had to be appeased at all costs is still correct despite all the evidence. The press also approaching five years of inexplicably still platforming him.

Sven-Erik Volberg@volberg.bsky.social · 7h ago

New pro-russian talking point, spearheaded by Mearsheimer, is that Ukraine is landlocked, russia is winning but it also means nuclear war. Looks extremely organic and based on reality. Spot the grifter!

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 2d ago

Nothing more Bluesky than no one reading the interview, or seemingly even watching the full sub-3 minute clip excerpt, before utterly freaking out that the CEO of Bluesky hates them and wants to flood the site with algorithmically boosted Nazis.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 2d ago

The thing that haunts you after being there is that it's their nightly reality. Lying in a hotel room listening to air defense frantically tearing up the night sky or waiting it out in a shelter and knowing that unlike them, for you this is 4 nights of horror and then you're back on a train home.

The Ukrainian Review@theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 2d ago

🇺🇦‼️Jesse Eisenberg witnessed the Russian shelling of Ukraine during a visit and reacted to it: “What if they bombed New York?” "We were woken up by anxiety, we went down to the shelter, and in the morning I saw the consequences of the shelling. It was devastating, terrible, outrageous, tragic. 1/2

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 5d ago

-sitting on a vast hoard of personal wealth equivalent to the annual GDP of Taiwan- "The thing is, the thing is you see, the thing is, I get that this looks bad but that's only because you don't realise money's like, not even going to be a thing ten years from now."

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

If skin color is what we're looking at then Vladimir Putin has more potential "shared history and values" with the UK than David Harewood. That seems really stupid to me, and while I'm not British I am super fucking white, so I'm kind of an expert on the place apparently.

Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social · last wk.

Peak Goodhart: literally the first citation in this is to Matt Goodwin's discredited "Great Replacement" fantasy. If you're trying to push your sanitised "non-racist" preference/ethnonationalism, perhaps don't start by linking to a far-right racist grifter? www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07...

It is not necessarily bigoted to want to preserve a majority-white Britain
Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

Another theory, entirely consistent with that accurate description of his character, could be that Vance sees the Groypers as his potential power base against Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential primary.

Joel S.@joelhs.bsky.social · last wk.

It's tempting to dismiss this as the worst people in the world fighting, but Vance is also a good weathervane of where the right in the US is headed since he has no inner convictions at all, and he seems to believe that the future of the US right is openly antisemitic extremely online young people.

""I don't think we're friends anymore; he cut me off." @roddreher visited his friend JD Vance last fall, warning him to draw a red line against groyperism and Jew-hate rising on the right. The response left Dreher questioning Vance's ability to lead."
Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

Casually and repeatedly dropping into a conversation with the investors I'm asking hundreds of billions from that while yes my company has never technically made any quote unquote money, it has recently created god... and no they can't see it.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

"Trump's free wheeling army of social media trolls got him into the White House" is a much more fun story than "Biden was old, unpopular, blamed for inflation and stayed in the race too long" but it's not true and campaigns REALLY shouldn't take away from 2024 that comms discipline doesn't matter.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

Yes! I wrote this in July of last year talking about the inevitable self-defeating nature of being a massive tool. www.explaintrade.com/resources/tr...

Deals with the Devil A devastatingly handsome and disarmingly humble trade geek recently wrote a book about how often trade policy tends to be politics first, economics a distant seventh. You should buy two copies for each of your pets. One aspect of trade policy becoming political is that the popularity of a country and its national leader abroad can give those they are negotiating with more or less political space to do deals with them. Any trade deal requires making concessions that are going to piss some people in your country off. If I lower a tariff, the companies who enjoyed tariff protection are going to complain loudly about it. The less the average voter in your country trusts or likes a foreign leader, the less patience they have for tolerating your making politically painful concessions to them in order to get a deal across the line. The Trump administration’s rather bellicose America-first rhetoric and general posture is actively limiting the political space other leaders have to make deals. The most obvious example of this is of course Canada, where proximity to Trump cost the opposition leader a double digit lead in the polls and propelled Mark Carney into power on the back of an ‘elbows up’ message. As a general rule, you want to avoid making fighting you a political slam dunk for foreign politicians - and unfortunately for Trump’s trade policy goals, in many places it is.
James Ball@jamesrball.com · last wk.

"Trump has spent most of the last 18 months alienating America’s oldest and closest allies, in a bid to court a new international coalition of his own making. "Now he's finding even they don’t want to pick up the phone. Trump’s remaining days in the Oval Office could become very lonely indeed."

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · last wk.

I think many "public intellectuals" stay on X because while they accept that radicalization is theoretically possible, it's something that only happens to other, dumber or weaker willed people... ... even as their every article inches closer to outright championing eugenics.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last mo.

X owner Elon Musk indicates he would prioritise political violence (assassination of pro-migration politicians is the common sense meaning) over violence against "invaders" (refugees, asylum seekers, maybe ethnic minorities generally) while endorsing call for violence (killing) against both groups

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 2w ago

Look, the rule is: there are certain topics on which anecdote spouting morons need to heed peer reviewed statistics and data, and others on which cold-hearted chart-nerds need to put their numbers away and just heed the vibes populi. Caveat: Only I get to choose which is which on every issue.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 2w ago

I'm enraged I have to give a shit what the scummiest grifters on the planet are pushing this week because they might have outsized influence on actual policy. Like if the Facebook posts of the loudest douche you went to high school with were being projected on the main screen in the Situation Room.

Euan MacDonald@euanmacdonald.bsky.social · 2w ago

This really shows the value of propaganda: As soon as the Kremlin’s “Russia’s victory is inevitable” narrative was broken, minds started to change.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@explaintrade.com · 2w ago

The argument here seems to be that US citizens in DC and Puerto Rico should continue to be disenfranchised to avoid creating a Congress and Electoral College that more closely resemble the preferences of the actual population, and making Donald Trump cry.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w ago

Trump: "The Democrats are gonna terminate the filibuster as soon as they have a chance and then they're gonna approve DC and Puerto Rico as states. They get 4 more senators, 12 more congressmen, like 40 electoral votes ... you don't want to see me cry."