François Godement
@fgodement.bsky.social
Historian, Special Advisor Asia & America @i_montaigne, non-resident Senior Fellow @CarnegieEndow until February 2025, #China and in spite of the above attempts at humour.
A dark piece on the chiasm between - many - Americans and most Europeans. It ends with an unescapable contradiction: we must gear up for and era of pacts and deals. But that implies becoming "more like America". Multilateral values and rules count for little if few others practice them...
Philip Stephens@philipstephens.bsky.social · 5mo agoTime to admit it. Americans are not like us. Latest Inside-Out column open.substack.com/pub/philipst...
@georginaewright.bsky.social first remarks were aimed at voters, second set is for other member states and the Commission. IMHO
Georgina Wright (on leave)@georginaewright.bsky.social · last yr.Rather remarkable to see the French government go from "US-EU deal is a humiliation" to - essentially - "US-EU deal avoided the worst, but the next steps are what matter". Exactly what other EU governments have been saying. (And yes, I know why the French said what they did. But still...)
This is a fundamental argument in debates about "engaging" China again. Talk, yes. But walk from China, almost never , except with the US. Show me rewards other than talk. Great pieces by @kovrig.bsky.social and others at www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
China Trends #23 - Canada, Japan and Australia: Swing States or Pawns for China?
China Trends is a quarterly publication by Institut Montaigne's Asia Program, with each issue focusing on a single theme. This new edition sheds light on China's ambitions in the global space of diplo...
institutmontaigne.org
Michael Kovrig@kovrig.bsky.social · last yr.Chinese analysts and diplomats are saying that Canada, under pressure from US tariffs, should tilt toward China. The implicit deal: kowtow to the CCP in return for economic benefits, sacrifice Canadian manufacturing for agricultural exports. It’s a devil’s bargain for Canada. 🧵/1
Première émission de ma série d'été sur @bruno@franceculture.fr consacrée aux Accords internationaux. Aujourd'hui, à 11h00, l'accord d'armistice entre les deux Corées, signé en 1953. Et ses répercussions aujourd'hui. Avec @brunotertrais.bsky.social et @fgodement.bsky.social.
Un très lucide -et dévastateur - interview de Francis Fukuyama : parmi bcp de choses, cette prédiction sur Taïwan : quand et si Xi veut s'en saisir, Trump fera un deal avec lui et appellera cela un accord de paix - comme sur l'Ukraine www.lexpress.fr/idees-et-deb... www.lexpress.fr/idees-et-deb...
Francis Fukuyama : "La politique économique de Trump est si stupide qu’elle me rend optimiste"
Pour le chercheur à l’université Stanford et père de la "fin de l’histoire", Donald Trump a fait basculer les Etats-Unis dans le camp de la Russie. "Malheureusement, nous sommes dans une situation où ...
lexpress.fr
Making offers you can't refuse. To Greenlanders and now to Wisconsin citizens?
Ann Telnaes@anntelnaes.bsky.social · last yr.Musk is at it again in Wisconsin (cartoon from 2024)
Although - as often with Donald Trump - different takes about this outcome are circulating, this seems likely as an opening volley to try and cow Europeans. Along with the chest thumping on Greenland. What a team...
Noah Barkin@noahbarkin.bsky.social · last yr.Trump is expected to hit Europe with tariffs of 20% next week, EU officials tell the FT after a visit by the EU trade commissioner to DC. This is likely to trigger a major transatlantic trade war. US officials were apparently unwilling to negotiate. on.ft.com/4kZpzPD
Au moment où l'UE entame une semaine de diplomatie en Chine, cette proposition d'un reset sur les investissements chinois en Europe - un "Deng Xiaoping à l'envers": www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/...
Relations commerciales Chine-Europe : sortir de l’impasse
Guerre commerciale, surproduction chinoise, riposte européenne : faut-il enterrer la libre-concurrence ? François Godement propose une autre voie, inspirée de Deng Xiaoping en Chine.
institutmontaigne.org
As the EU starts a diplomacy week in China, this proposal of a "reverse Deng" agreement for Chinese direct investment in Europe www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
Can Europe Do a "Reverse Deng" With China?
Europe faces a trade dilemma as China expands its exports. Protectionism or a "reverse Deng" strategy could shape future EU-China ties. Analysis by François Godement.
institutmontaigne.org
👇 www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
« Les Etats-Unis vus par Trump ne comptent que sur la force. Ils n’ont que faire de leur pouvoir de séduction, de leur soft power »
CHRONIQUE. Moins de trois mois après son retour à la Maison Blanche, le président américain poursuit la mise en pièces des institutions établies par les Etats-Unis au lendemain de la seconde guerre mo...
lemonde.fr
Big news on China/US trade if confirmed. All the more important to read this: institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions… @i_montaigneENwww.wsj.com/economy/trad...re
Exclusive | China Explores Limiting Its Own Exports to Mollify Trump
Chinese officials weigh Japan’s 1980s strategy—restraining exports while charging more—for products such as electric vehicles or batteries.
wsj.com
My take on turning China's tidal wave of exports to the EU into a workable investment deal. Many obstacles - the first being Beijing's win all mentality, but worth a try. @i_montaigneEN www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
Can Europe Do a "Reverse Deng" With China?
Europe faces a trade dilemma as China expands its exports. Protectionism or a "reverse Deng" strategy could shape future EU-China ties. Analysis by François Godement.
institutmontaigne.org
It is so tempting now for Europe to try and get better terms (trade, investment, restraint on Russia) from China. The problem: no opening at all from Beijing beyond words. Here is why: There Cannot Be a US–EU–China Triangle | Institut Montaigne www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
Why There Cannot Be a US–EU–China Triangle
How should Europe view the repositioning required by the Trump II doctrine? Does China offer an acceptable fallback solution? Analysis by François Godement.
institutmontaigne.org
www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/... Devant les attaques de Trump, chercher des accords ou des compromis avec la Chine semble une bonne idée. Pas si simple. Derrière des mots soudain agréables, aucune concession chinoise à ce jour. Voici pourquoi:
États-Unis - UE - Chine : un triangle impossible
Comment l’Europe doit-elle envisager le repositionnement exigé par la doctrine Trump II ? La Chine offre-t-elle une solution de repli acceptable ? Analyse de François Godement.
institutmontaigne.org
indeed Taiwan should spend more. But Colby shows Ukraine is a prototype for the Trump admin. Add the pressure to transfer TSMC production to the US (Taiwan's "silicon security guarantee") and you have a global US security guarantee that looks like a used car dealership. 3/3
He now sets a condition that Taiwan spend 10 % of GDP (obviously on US weapons), says Taiwan is not "existential" to the US, puts more accent on preventing Iran from going nuclear 2/3
Elbridge Colby, at Senate confirmation hearing for DoD undersecretary post for policy, makes clear... the Trump admin ambiguity on Taiwan! He was known for giving up the defense of Europe to focus on containing China 1/3
Instant Chinese responses to Trump's tariffs are underwhelming although targeted- US agri exports means Trump voters, but only 15 %. Targeting specific firms - none of the giants so far since opening an enquiry into Nvidia. The RMB staying pat. And MoFA spokesman requesting talks.
It's almost hilarious to revisit this quote from Marco Rubio of only 41 days ago. It sounds like an echo from the past century x.com/ryanl_hass/s...
Ryan Hass on X: "Rubio instructs US diplomats to prioritize: “revitalizing alliances, strengthening ties with partners, countering the malign activities of adversaries, refocusing on great power rivalry” Good to see alliances/partnerships enjoy such pride of place. https://t.co/Jrhu30hqd8" / X
Rubio instructs US diplomats to prioritize: “revitalizing alliances, strengthening ties with partners, countering the malign activities of adversaries, refocusing on great power rivalry” Good to see alliances/partnerships enjoy such pride of place. https://t.co/Jrhu30hqd8
x.com
The analogies between the trio (Trump/Musk/Vance) and Mao's Cultural Revolution are catching like wildfire. French press has also taken notice of Philipe Roth's novel, The Plot Against America. Everybody looking for pointers and markers. asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Co...
Trump's cost-slashing Cultural Revolution risks harming U.S.
Defense and diplomacy not spared from Elon Musk-led purge of bureaucrats
asia.nikkei.com
Le courage tous azimuths de Zelensky, qui négocie jusque dans la gueule du tigre: www.wsj.com/world/zelens...
U.S. and Ukraine Reach Minerals Deal, but Details Remain Unresolved
The agreement lacks explicit security guarantees for Kyiv; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed he had been invited this week to Washington but wasn’t sure he would go
wsj.com
First coherent sign of an actual Trump policy on China. Based on wide derisking and protection of assets, questioning MFN and VIE proxies on capital markets, leaving room only for passive investment from China.Very based on 1977 IEEPA, as per Stephen Miran
America First Investment Policy
MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE ATTORNEY GENERAL THE
whitehouse.gov
My take on what amounts to a sabotage of transatlantic relations: www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
After Munich : the "New Normal"
At a time when democracy is under frontal attack by the United States, it is time to grasp the extent of the American return and draw the consequences. By François Godement.
institutmontaigne.org
My take on the global disaster that is the Trump 2 presidency. Including but not limited to the sabotage of transatlantic relations. A time of lies and blackmail www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/...
Europe : prendre acte du sabotage des relations transatlantiques
À l’heure où la démocratie est frontalement attaquée par les États-Unis et où l’Europe est moins "à la table des négociations qu’à leur menu", il est temps de saisir l’ampleur du retournement américai...
institutmontaigne.org
D'abord cibler les banques? Elles se servent des carottes fiscales pour spolier les épargnants à coup de placements maison et de frais cachés. Les épargnants français ne sont pas fous d'aller à l'immobilier et aux livrets A. Ils connaissent leur banquier... www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/...
«Récupérons ces 300 milliards» : le gouverneur de la Banque de France veut mobiliser l’épargne privée pour le financement de l’UE
Cette manne «abondante» permettrait d’investir dans la transition climatique et numérique, estime François Villeroy de Galhau.
lefigaro.fr
Europe's only way out from the simultaneous threats that China, and now Donald Trump and Elon Musk's America have created for us. www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...
[Trump II] - Trump and Musk Challenge Europe to Rise or Submit
Faced with the radicality of a dyarchic power embodied by two personalities, Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who are no longer censored by any superego, what can the EU do? François Godement outlines a st...
institutmontaigne.org
Trump (et Musk) s'appuient sur le succès américain. L'Europe doit accélérer, renforcer et soutenir son exécutif, choisir parmi des objectifs trop nombreux. Après la Chine et la Russie, c'est le troisième réveil brutal de ce siècle.@i_montaigne www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/...
[Trump II] - Trump et Musk mettent l'Europe au défi de se redresser ou de se soumettre
Face à la radicalité d'un pouvoir dyarchique incarné par deux personnalités, Donald Trump et Elon Musk, qu'aucun surmoi ne vient plus censurer, que peut l’UE ? Les pistes d'une stratégie de riposte qu...
institutmontaigne.org
Après le tweet de soutien de Musk à l'AfD je vais essayer de faire vivre ce compte Bluesky pour quitter X. Tous conseils sont bienvenus!
