Francesco PAPADIA
@francz.bsky.social
Economist at Bruegel. Former European Central Bank director general.
moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu/portfolio/co... I presented my views on macro-developments, transatlantic relationships and European defence to a group of investors in London. My metaphor is that Europe is like an elephant: a not aggressive herbivore, but not to be messed up.
Speeches and Presentations | Money matters? Perspectives on Monetary Policy
moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu
What implications for financial stability from the recent news that Blackstone, Cliffwaters and Blue Owl have limited withdrawals from their private funds? Any worrying analogy with August 2007 when BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from three of its investment funds?
🌍 Italy and Europe 📉 Slow growth, high debt and the paradox of Giorgia Meloni 🔴 In this episode of The Sound of Economics, @rebeccawire.bsky.social talks about the economy & politics of Italy with Bruegel’s @manumourlon.bsky.social & @francz.bsky.social. 👂 Listen to the podcast: buff.ly/Evp6eYn
Italy and Europe
Slow growth, high debt and the paradox of Giorgia Meloni
bruegel.org
#Lagarde gives a long list of one-hand/on-the-other-hand considerations, with little indication of what the net is. Maybe this is inevitable in current conditions.
#Trump is: reducing good supply, through tariffs; reducing labour supply, through immigration; increasing aggregate demand, with fiscal policy; welcoming a weak dollar; weakening FED's resolve to fight inflation, with continuous calls to reduce rates. How can this not lead to inflation?
Is what #Trump did with #Venezuela a harbinger of what he could do with #Greenland? Unlikely but not impossible. The EU should be ready for the unlikely event.
One controversial thought: the clearer #Trump (the US?) is in his despise for Europe, the better. Even the most convinced Atlanticist will be convinced that we must now all become Gaullists.
Bruegel recently republished an essay written with Leonardo Cadamuro: www.bruegel.org/external-pub.... We try to dispel the despondency too often affecting Europeans and sapping their actions.
Forty years of European History: Crisis, Resilience, Development and Opportunity
bruegel.org
The EU has been hit in the last few decades by 3 raw material shocks: oil in the 1970s, gas in 2022 and now rare earths. They overcame the 2nd shock faster than the 1st one. Is the 3rd one more similar to the 1st or the 2nd? How do the 3 shocks compare in size and substitutability?
I see similarities between the weaponisation of the $ by the US and the weaponisation of rare earths by China: both are effective in the short to medium run, both incentivise alternatives, weakening their effect, in the medium to long run. Would be interesting to see which effect will fade faster.
⏳ How long will the #tariff madness last? 🤔 With discussion turning away from changing the US' tariffs towards predicting how long they will last, are there grounds for optimism? 🖊️ By @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/O5NGr2Y #EconSky
How long will the tariff madness last?
Pessimists argue Trump’s tariffs are here to stay; optimists argue that governments have limited ability to inflict pain on their electorates
buff.ly
With the tariff agreement with the US and now with the Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine, the EU is suffering unavoidable but painful humiliations. This is the precondition for understanding that we must further our unity and strengthen our independence. Humiliations can provide strong incentives.
WE ARE HIRING! Bruegel is looking for a skilled Operations Assistant for its office in Brussels to undertake various day-to-day office and operations tasks. 🔗 Apply before Wednesday 13th August 2025, 23:59 CET: www.bruegel.org/careers/oper...
1 Tariffs worsen growth and inflation; 2 Increasing tariffs is contrary to the long trend towards free trade; 3 All commentary considers the increased level of tariffs as persistent. 3 is not consistent with 1 and 2. Can the mid-term elections, or the next presidential election, reduce tariffs?
Two optimistic, maybe wrong, interpretations. 1. An extreme political shock favoured the US's traditional populist soul against its liberal one, and Roth's Plot Against America has become real, but will not last. 2. Europe is forced to surpass colonialism and the two World Wars and become an adult.
#Lagarde is very confident that inflation is stabilizing at 2.0%
#Lagarde confirms that tariffs negatively affect growth and push inflation lower, so no stagflation, unlike in the US.
The coming Sunday I will participate in the Brussels 20km. I still have not reached my donation objective. Please sponsor me for MSF. projects.collect.msf-azg.be/fundraisers/... Thanks in advance
Brussels 20km 2025
Hello, I'm running the 20km of Brussels for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Please sponsor me! The donations collected will be used to support various projects and ensure the continuity of MSF's act...
projects.collect.msf-azg.be
There is a common feature in French, Canadian, Australian and Romanian elections: confronted with a possible win by an extreme right party, electors choose the candidate best able to defeat it. Unfortunate exceptions are: Italy, Hungary, Israel.
🔍 The ECB’s Digital Euro and new operational framework: is there an overlap? 📅 2 June 2025 12:30-13:45 CEST Join @rebeccawire.bsky.social , Ulrich Bindseil & Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau of @ecb.europa.eu , @francz.bsky.social & Alberto Franco Pozzolo for this conversation! 🔗 Sign up: buff.ly/qoDnKtB
🤝 UK-EU relations With the London Summit approaching, on the agenda so far for a post-Brexit reset are defence, trade, and a possible youth mobility scheme. 🪙 Time to add finance? 🖊️ Jesper Berg, @rebeccawire.bsky.social @hansgeeroms.bsky.social @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/PknBeg9 #EconSky
Make finance part of the EU-UK post-Brexit reset
The EU and UK should address issues with the clearing and settlement industry and letterbox firms
buff.ly
projects.collect.msf-azg.be/fundraisers/... I am training to get to the finish in a decent time, but I am still far from my donation objectives. Please sponsor me and help me help Medecins Sans Frontières.
Brussels 20km 2025
Hello, I'm running the 20km of Brussels for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Please sponsor me! The donations collected will be used to support various projects and ensure the continuity of MSF's act...
projects.collect.msf-azg.be
I sensed a tension in #Lagarde's press conference today: -It is clear that tariffs are imparting a negative demand shock, while there is no clear inflation impact -Monetary policy will remain meeting by meeting without a clear path. An indication of a downward path would have been justified.
The most important message in #Trump's backdown on tariffs is not that he suspended some of them but that the market can force a change. I expect more of this going forward, also regarding China, as both Xi and Trump must reckon with market consequences.
