Fabian Hoffmann
@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇 https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
🚀 A few days ago, Missile Matters passed 10,000 subscribers. Today I published a post announcing the biggest change since the blog began: Missile Matters now offers a paid subscription tier. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/10000-subs... 1/5
10,000 Subscribers and a New Chapter: Missile Matters Adds a Paid Tier
Missile Matters is launching paid subscriptions. Much of the blog stays free. Here is what changes and why.
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 New Missile Matters post on how Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has transformed the Ukrainian state itself. In short: the state makes the missile, and the missile makes the state. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-... 1/5
The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State
The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state
missilematters.substack.com
Excellent article by @frhoffmann.bsky.social on #Ukraines new strength based on long range missile strike capability substack.com/@frhoffmann/...
Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann)
🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post on what Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has done to the Ukrainian state itself. Between 18 and 24 July, Ukrainian drones struck several Wildberries logist...
substack.com
"The state that enters those talks differs in important respects from the state Russia invaded in 2022: a missile power in its own right, retaining the power to hurt. Russia will be negotiating with the missile on the table and state the missile made." missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...
The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State
The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state
missilematters.substack.com
Great essay from @frhoffmann.bsky.social : "For much of the war, Ukraine’s future was shaped, or at least feared to be shaped, by Western capitals reacting to Russian manipulation of risk. Ukraine now holds the power to manipulate that risk itself." missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...
The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State
The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state
missilematters.substack.com
I have serious doubts that this is a worthwhile investment for Germany. As I have mentioned before, I think Trump originally did the Germans a solid by not selling the system, forcing them to look for solutions on the European market. www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen... 1/2
Einigung mit den USA: Deutschland kauft "Tomahawk"-Marschflugkörper
Die Einigung mit den USA verkündet Kanzler Merz in seiner Regierungserklärung. Washington hat dem Verkauf von "Tomahawk"-Marschflugkörpern an Deutschland zugestimmt.
tagesschau.de
Fazit:: die Flamingos treffen immer besser.
Fabian Hoffmann@frhoffmann.bsky.social · 4w ago🚀 New Missile Matters post out, reviewing Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile strike on the Titan-Barrikady plant and situating it within Flamingo's emerging strike history Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/is-the-fp-... Short summary below. 1/5
🚀 New Missile Matters post out, reviewing Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile strike on the Titan-Barrikady plant and situating it within Flamingo's emerging strike history Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/is-the-fp-... Short summary below. 1/5
Is the FP-5 Flamingo Cruise Missile Starting to Deliver? Evidence from Ten Confirmed Strikes
Recent Flamingo strikes may indicate improved performance of the Ukrainian heavy cruise missile
missilematters.substack.com
I'll publish a new Missile Matters post on the operational history of the Flamingo tomorrow morning. But what stands out is that, so far, Ukraine does not seem to intend on using the Flamingo to strike oil and gas infrastructure, instead relying on long-range drones for that task. 1/3
Meanwhile in Ukraine@meanwhileua.bsky.social · last mo.Ukraine just reached Russia’s biggest refinery in Siberia. ㅤ Omsk is almost 2,500 km from Ukraine’s border. Ukraine’s General Staff said Special Operations Forces struck the refinery — a key fuel hub for Russia’s war machine. ㅤ Distance is no longer protection. Support link is in our Bio.
🚀 New Missile Matters post on the emerging ballistic missile defense market in Europe, prompted by Frankenburg Technologies' announcement that it is seeking 100 million euros to develop a Patriot-competitive system. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-last-f... Short summary below. 1/5
The Last Frontier: European Manufacturers Move Ahead on Ballistic Missile Defense
After FirePoint, Estonian missile house Frankenburg Technologies seeks to enter the ballistic missile defense market
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post assessing Russia's growing air and missile defense problem. Russia is now experiencing the same interceptor scarcity that has long plagued Ukraine. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/missile-de... Short summary below. 1/5
Missile Defense's Unforgiving Logic Comes Back to Haunt Russia
Ukrainian long-range drone attacks expose a deepening air defense shortage
missilematters.substack.com
In all honesty, the US would be doing Germany a favor. The Tomahawk Block Vb, the variant under discussion, will not enter service with the U.S. fleet before 2028, more likely 2029. Germany, as an export partner, would likely have to wait longer still. 1/3 www.politico.com/news/2026/06...
Pentagon likely to cancel missile deal with Germany over fears of Russia
The decision is part of a broader American retrenchment from the NATO alliance.
politico.com
🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Russian conventional ballistic missile production rates, focusing on the 9M723 Iskander-M and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/how-many-c... Short summary below. 1/5
How Many Ballistic Missiles Is Russia Producing?
Assessing 9M723 Iskander-M and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal output against employment data
missilematters.substack.com
This new podcast is rapidly turning into a weekly ritual for me. Looking forward to listening to this episode.
Minna Ålander 🌻@alanderminna.bsky.social · 3mo agoThis week, we’re Mildly Alarmed about nukes ! @frhoffmann.bsky.social gives an intro into nukes and deterrence, after which @kaeggen.bsky.social discusses Russian nuclear threats and I of course wanted to talk about French nuclear doctrine. @lapatina.bsky.social brings in the Ukrainian perspective.
🚀 New Missile Matters post on the Department of War's framework agreements for 10,000+ low-cost cruise missiles and 12,000 low-cost hypersonic missiles — and what they reveal about the U.S. missile industrial base. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-united... Summary below. 1/5
The United States is Betting Big on Affordable Missiles
Four mini cruise missiles and one low-cost aeroballistic missile now feature prominetnly in the U.S. missile industrial ramp-up
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 New Missile Matters post on the Department of War's framework agreements for 10,000+ low-cost cruise missiles and 12,000 low-cost hypersonic missiles — and what they reveal about the U.S. missile industrial base. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-united... Summary below. 1/5
The United States is Betting Big on Affordable Missiles
Four mini cruise missiles and one low-cost aeroballistic missile now feature prominetnly in the U.S. missile industrial ramp-up
missilematters.substack.com
Big cruise missile day in Europe. 1) Destinus revealed a 2,000-kilometer Block 3 variant of its Ruta air-launched cruise missile. 2) MBDA updated on its ground-launched Land Cruise Missile (Europe's closest Tomahawk equivalent), reportedly ready for order in 2029. 1/4
🚀 New Missile Matters post: how Europe can rapidly acquire deep-strike capabilities after Washington canceled the Long-Range Fires Battalion. No ideal solution remains, but Europe is not out of options. missilematters.substack.com/p/beggars-ca... Short summary below. 1/5
Beggars Can't be Choosers: Three Pathways for Europe to Acquire Deep Strike Quickly
Picture: U.S.
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 New Missile Matters post: how Europe can rapidly acquire deep-strike capabilities after Washington canceled the Long-Range Fires Battalion. No ideal solution remains, but Europe is not out of options. missilematters.substack.com/p/beggars-ca... Short summary below. 1/5
Beggars Can't be Choosers: Three Pathways for Europe to Acquire Deep Strike Quickly
Picture: U.S.
missilematters.substack.com
The second episode of Mildly Alarmed is out ! In which we discuss European security from various perspectives, @frhoffmann.bsky.social outs himself as a Europtimist and I have an electricity blackout to keep things interesting. Also featuring the best @lapatina.bsky.social & @kaeggen.bsky.social
Episode two of the Mildly Alarmed podcast is in the can and out tomorrow. This one covers the state of European security and defense. We are still finding our footing, but we are having fun along the way. If you want to follow along and are not yet subscribed, you can do so via the links below.
🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Ukrainian claims about jamming Russian ballistic missiles. In short: technically demanding, but plausibly feasible. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain... Summary below. 1/5
Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense
Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons
missilematters.substack.com
Some thoughts on the United States ending plans to deploy a Long-Range Fires battalion to Europe: I am somewhat less alarmed about what this means for Germany and Europe. 1/6
Lots of nice technical details. Keep them coming 🙂 Ir also shows that sanctions which can diminis Russias acces to intertial navigation components, is key.
Fabian Hoffmann@frhoffmann.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Ukrainian claims about jamming Russian ballistic missiles. In short: technically demanding, but plausibly feasible. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain... Summary below. 1/5
🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Ukrainian claims about jamming Russian ballistic missiles. In short: technically demanding, but plausibly feasible. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain... Summary below. 1/5
Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense
Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons
missilematters.substack.com
Can #Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social. substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense
Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons
substack.com
🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing France's long-range and deep-strike rearmament programs. France is developing 12 distinct systems — more than any other European state. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/french-lon... Short summary below. 1/5
France Goes Deep
A review of French long-range and deep strike development projects
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post earlier today, discussing how Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has likely crossed a threshold that earlier phases did not reach. Link to the piece: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-d... Summary below. 1/5
Ukraine's Deep-Strike Drone Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure
How Ukraine is systematically degrading Russian energy export capacity — and what it means for the war
missilematters.substack.com
