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CSIS Futures Lab

@futures.csis.org

Futures Lab brings empirical rigor to foresight and policy using computational social science, data science, and AI/ML.

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CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 2d ago

"Swarms aggregate and disaggregate to place the enemy on the horns of a dilemma, resulting in leaders fearing the next blow and thereby diminishing their freedom of action." —Benjamin Jensen Read the analysis: https://www.csis.org/analysis/art-swarming

The Art of Swarming

Cheap sensors and long-range fires have made it deadly to mass forces. This report argues that drone swarms can restore the offense when paired with a clear operational concept and explores how U.S. forces could use them in Kaliningrad, the South China Sea, and the Baltics.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 3d ago

Mass still matters in war, but massed forces are now easy targets. Benjamin Jensen argues swarms can restore the offense by converging effects without concentrating the force. Read the report: https://www.csis.org/analysis/art-swarming

The Art of Swarming

Cheap sensors and long-range fires have made it deadly to mass forces. This report argues that drone swarms can restore the offense when paired with a clear operational concept and explores how U.S. forces could use them in Kaliningrad, the South China Sea, and the Baltics.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · last wk.

1,250 vendors won federal AI awards from FY 2019 to FY 2025, and 66.2 percent won only one contract. But the top three recipients hold 30.4 percent of net obligations: a top-heavy, long-tailed market. Read the analysis: https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending

Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending

Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 2w ago

Since Feb. 2022, our team identified 110 cases of Russian nuclear icebreakers escorting sanctioned shadow fleet tankers for more than an estimated six hours. These escorts help sustain Arctic energy exports. https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet

The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 2w ago

Over half of the 75 federal AI solicitations CSIS reviewed contain no clear governance language. Red teaming, audit access, and incident reporting each appear in fewer than 10 percent. Read the analysis: https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending

Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending

Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 3w ago

How do you track a tanker broadcasting a false location? The Kola’s spoofed signal places it off Nigeria while it operates in the Arctic. Our analysis shows why vessel signals need to be paired with satellite imagery. https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet

The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 3w ago

Federal AI demand is rising, but since ChatGPT's launch, data center growth has outpaced federal AI contracting, a sign that commercial demand increasingly drives AI infrastructure. Read the analysis: https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending

Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending

Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 3w ago

Russia’s Arctic energy trade depends on icebreakers and a handful of transfer hubs. Our research traces how this network sustains exports—and where monitoring and sanctions could constrain it. https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet

The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.

csis.org

CSIS Futures Lab@futures.csis.org · 4w ago

Federal AI contracts more than tripled from FY 2019 to FY 2025. DOD holds 83 percent of $4.1 billion in obligations, and over half of solicitations reviewed lack clear governance language. Read the Critical Questions: https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending

Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending

Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.

csis.org