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Gabe Rubin

@gaberubin.bsky.social

US Columnist at Reuters Breakingviews, writing about economics and policy in DC. Formerly WSJ.

19 Posts732 Follower602 Folgt
Peter Thal Larsen@petertl.bsky.social · 9mo ago

It's the most wonderful time of the year...when the @breakingviews.reuters.com team unwraps its predictions for the 12 months ahead. The 13 Days of Predictions kicks off with @gaberubin.bsky.social looking who will hold real power at the Federal Reserve. #BVPredicts www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Breakingviews - Scott Bessent will be the real next Fed chair

The US Treasury Secretary’s tight grip on picking Jerome Powell’s replacement previews a new era for the central bank. A Bessent-led review of the Fed’s $6.6 trln balance sheet and bank regulations me...

reuters.com

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl.bsky.social · last yr.

The Trump shock part 1: The president’s claim that tariffs will simultaneously raise revenue and boost U.S. manufacturing is incoherent, but also leaves less room for negotiation. www.reuters.com/breakingview... By @gaberubin.bsky.social for @breakingviews.reuters.com

Breakingviews - Trump tariffs tip world into trade war abyss

Donald Trump is pushing the global economic order to the breaking point. Unveiling new tariffs on Wednesday, the president said that he was being “kind” by only raising levies to half the level that his administration reckons peers place on U.S. imports. Consumers, businesses and world leaders are unlikely to feel much tenderness. Starting at 10% for all nations but rising higher for a bewildering array of trade partners – including 34% for China, 20% for the EU and 26% for India – they bring U.S. trade duties to their highest rates since the Great Depression. Top trading partners Canada and Mexico will be subject to their own bespoke regime. The stated twin goals of raising trillions in revenue while forcing manufacturing onshore are irreconcilable, complicating any last-minute attempts to negotiate a climb-down. In the meantime, the damage will be significant.

reuters.com

Gabe Rubin@gaberubin.bsky.social · 2y ago

The Javier Milei/George Osborne approach to austerity makes no sense in a US context-- better to make some targeted cuts and improve some services a la Al Gore, and call it a day

Breakingviews - Breakingviews: Mapping the way for Elon Musk’s efficiency drive

Elon Musk’s understanding of the so-called deep state comes off as rather shallow. The Tesla CEO reckons $2 trillion can be slashed from the U.S. bureaucracy, echoing decades of arm-waving over wasteful spending in Washington. It’s a noble cause, but an implausible figure. Although there are undoubtedly savings to be found, it would be more helpful to find better ways to use allocated government capital.

reuters.com