Estimated 2026 military spending as a percentage of GDP, with NATO figures updated for today's summit.
William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
PhD and professor. War, economics, math, YouTube. Lines on Maps. http://youtube.com/gametheory101
A simple visualization of the line of control in Ukraine since April 2022.
I made a very simple animation showing NATO's enlargement over the years. Enjoy!
How I would solve the red button/blue button problem, featuring multiple Nash equilibria given various assumptions and how I would solve the societal problem as dictator of the world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVeI...
Red Button, Blue Button? A Game Theorist Solves the Viral Dilemma
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
Why do we call them the Korean War and the Vietnam War? Why not the Korea War and the Vietnamese War? Or better yet, why not have a consistent naming convention?
It's a Lines on Maps Extra day, with the latest video in my Introduction to International Relations series. Today's topic: alliances, their evolution over time, and how to overcome some of their fundamental credibility problems. www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_pw...
How Alliances Work: Historical Trends, The Abandonment-Entrapment Tradeoff, and Creating Credibility
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
Day 26 in a row in the books. Today is a deep dive on the Iran War, its domino effects, and some of our usual silliness. Oh, I also go off the rails talking about the United States and Iran allegedly having different perceptions on the repetition of the interaction. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPCh...
The Causes of the Iran War, How It Will End, Post-War U.S. Problems
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
I have reached the point of my career where I am trying to find out the latest regarding the Russian oil tanker heading to Iran, and Google ultimately points me to myself.
On Lines on Maps Extra today for some Q&A about the Iran War (and sleep, and video games, and recipes). www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYfX...
Iran War Q&A: Hormuz Failures, World War III, Boots on the Ground, and Arab Interventions
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
This may not be World War 3, but it feels more and more like we are in the middle of a world war. www.yahoo.com/news/article...
France, Germany, UK ready to take 'defensive action' against Iran
France, Germany and the UK said Sunday they were ready to defend their interests and those of its allies in the Gulf if necessary by taking "defensive action" against Iran."We will take steps to defen...
yahoo.com
Before you read the hundreds of articles about how pizza predicted the war, please watch this video from a few days ago. It did not. Video later today about what has happened so far. www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3kr...
Can Pizza Predict the Start of the Iran War?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Here's the most interesting part of the Supreme Court tariff ruling I have read thus far. The context is whether Congress hid the power to tariff within the power to regulate:
Paused on this frame of a video I am working on. It seems like Rubio's face is reacting to having just read what's on screen. 😅
Ever feel like you walked into lines on maps halfway through and never fully understood what was going on? Well, here is 105 minutes of Crisis Bargaining Theory 101. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...
What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
Nuclear war has started---and ended. Your government has just been destroyed. But you still control 16 nuclear-tipped missiles. What's your next step? How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject? www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...
World War III Just Ended. You Lost. You Have 16 Nuclear-Tipped Missiles. What Do You Do?
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
I have completely revamped my IRL introduction to international relations class. Today, I published the first lecture out of the batch! I will publish a new one every Saturday for the next three months. They will be exclusive to my secondary channel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...
How to Think Like a Geopolitics Analyst
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
youtube.com
If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you. www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...
The Hidden Reason the West Needs to Send Ukraine More Drones *Now*
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Ten days after the Fracas in Caracas, we take a look at what happened, and how Venezuela's military relationship with Russia left some major gaps in the former's defenses. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...
Why Russia Failed to Help Venezuela: Ukraine, Hardware, and Attrition
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Warning: contains dramatic reenactment of the 2018 NATO Summit, which gives some insight on the origin of Donald Trump's apparent animosity toward Denmark. www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...
“Weapons Grade Stupid”? The U.S. Plan for Greenland
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Best headline of the year so far. It reads like clickbait but is 100% true to the story. www.politico.eu/article/fran...
France delays G7 to avoid clash with White House cage fighting on Trump’s birthday
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said the new schedule is “the result of our consultations with G7 partners.”
politico.eu
Last month, I attended a NATO cyber security exercise in Estonia. They showed me basically nothing. But that was by design, and highlights a broader point about why states run military exercises. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...
I Went to a NATO Exercise. They Showed Me Nothing. That Was the Point.
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Fallout from the capture of two tankers today, plus some analysis on what is happening with the oil blockade in Venezuela. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...
The U.S. Just Seized a Russian Flagged Tanker—Because It Can, and Moscow Can’t Stop It
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.
Strategies like what the Trump Administration is doing in Venezuela rarely work. Why do countries keep trying despite that? The answer may have to do with a line or two. And perhaps a map as well. (Or a generic bar of goodies.) www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...
Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Works. Why Do Countries Keep Trying?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
The Trump Administration has not articulated a clear plan, but the lack of a plan is the plan. And what can the new Venezuelan president do to counter it? www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...
What Is Trump’s Strategy, and How Will the New Venezuelan President Counter It?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtube.com
First images of Delcy Rodriguez being sworn in. Working on a video right now about what her strategy is going forward.
With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war. youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8
How Maduro’s Capture Upends the World at War
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap. youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM
The United States Has Captured Maduro. What Happens Next?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.
WhySolSirius@whysolsirius.bsky.social · 7mo agoThe real question people want answered is “did William sleep last night”. And the answer is most likely “no“. Not why I had on my list for, checks notes, day 3 of 2026.