Talarico is polling better vs. Paxton than Beto O'Rourke (D) ever did in his close 2018 defeat vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). #TXSen From April-July 2018, Cruz led every poll vs O'Rourke. But Paxton has only led 3 of 12 surveys in the same period of 2026. More: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/james-tala...

Underrated aspect of DNC's pres primary calendar: Virginia would go just before Super Tuesday. SC voted 3 days before ST in 2020 & greatly influenced it. VA would go by itself a week before. VA has been establishment-friendly: Clinton & Biden both handily beat Sanders.

DDHQ's newsletter looks at the Democrats' 2028 pres primary calendar. What will New Hampshire do? Right now, NH primary would probably be Jan. 11 — 11 days before SC Dems vote. As in 2024, NH Dems might use a party-run event to comply w/ DNC. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

In #AZ04, Rep. Greg Stanton (D) fended off a left-wing primary challenger, Kai Newkirk, who tried to harness the recent energy in Democratic primaries for more progressive/socialist candidates. Read more about what happened in Arizona last night: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/arizona-ju...

Which Senate seats will matter most in 2026? Our new election forecast provides answers. GOP has about a 3 in 5 shot at a majority. Dems must win at least 7 of 10 key seats for majority, while GOP only needs 4 for 50-50 split (VP Vance would break ties). decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-elect...

Maine Democrats and South Carolina Republicans suddenly must choose new nominees in their U.S. Senate race. How do their situations compare with past replacements? Since 1950, there are now 31 cases where a party substituted a nominee for Senate/governor. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-sub...

What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with @bangordailynews.bsky.social politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.

A source told @bangordailynews.bsky.social that another negative Platner story could come out soon. #MESen In today's newsletter, DDHQ noted that Collins's numbers have already trended upward in the last month. She went from trailing Platner by ~5 pts to leading by 1 in DDHQ's average.

This is just like when FIFA arbitrarily lifted Ronaldo's red card suspension except it makes the team better

What happened last night? DDHQ has a roundup of all the big results in Colorado. The top story: The Left kept up its momentum in Colorado's 1st, where democratic socialist Melat Kiros ousted Rep. Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary. Read more:

❓What happened last night: DSA-backed Kiros beats DeGette, Weiser beats sitting senator Bennet for governor

A look at the June 30 primary results in Colorado

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

This week's DDHQ Podcast was a listener mailbag! Check out the link in the replies. How long could it take some states to count their votes in November? There's a scenario in which Senate control rests on the outcome in Alaska, but it takes days to know the result.

New York has a ton of interesting Democratic primaries tomorrow. For DDHQ's newsletter, @kaleighrogers.bsky.social examined how crowded races may affect Democrats' chances in key seats. One is #NY17, held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R), a 50%-50% seat in 2024. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/midterm-cr...

This week's DDHQ Podcast talked with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social about 4 NYC primaries that could tell us much about Democrats' 2028 conflicts. (link below) AI is key in #NY12, where Alex Bores is getting attacked by an @OpenAI-backed super PAC & supported by an @AnthropicAI-backed one!

DDHQ has a roundup of what happened in the most important primaries and runoffs yesterday. (See link below) In Georgia's GOP runoff for Senate, Rick Jackson defeated Burt Jones 53%-47%. Jones is the 2nd Trump-endorsed gov candidate to lose in June (Feenstra in Iowa).

It's another busy primary day in America! DDHQ has a rundown of the biggest races to watch tonight. #DC Democrats look set to pick between Janeese Lewis George and Kenyan McDuffie. Neither candidate will probably win 50%+ outright, so the race will likely be decided by ranked-choice voting.

Some lunchtime reading: DDHQ previews key June 16 races in GA, AL, OK & DC. (Link below) One biggie is the GOP runoff for #GASen, which will decide who faces Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in November. Rep. Mike Collins looks to be ahead, but a late poll found fmr football coach Derek Dooley not far behind.

Valadao is now at 41% in the top-two primary results, which is an extremely bad sign for the GOP in this seat. If Valadao won after this, it would be the lowest % for a winning incumbent party in a top-two congressional primary in CA (since 2012) or WA (since 2008).

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 2mo ago

GOP Rep. David Valadao is at just 42% with roughly 72% of votes counted. The GOP has always been >50% in round 1 in his prior House races, & GOP support typically declines in November with higher turnout. This heavily Latino seat passed Prop 50 by 18 points in 2025, & Dems look favored to flip it

Decision Desk HQ dug into the big June 9 primary results: In #MESen Democratic primary, Graham Platner won with 72%. That share did not differ much from the 76% he garnered in a late May poll by UNH that predated his latest scandals. Read our roundup: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/june-9-pri...

Decision Desk HQ has all the details about key primaries happening today in ME, SC, ND & NV. Find the link below for our preview. A big one is the #SCGov GOP primary. Trump endorsed Evette but polls show a complete jumble headed for a runoff. But which 2 contenders will advance?

Decision Desk HQ breaks down what to watch in the June 9 primaries. Find the link below. In Maine, will Graham Platner's (D) many controversies weaken his primary showing, foreshadowing future trouble? He leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 48%-44% in DDHQ's polling average.

In the much-watched Los Angeles mayoral primary, incumbent Karen Bass is projected to advance. TBD on who will join her in November, though Spencer Pratt looks most likely. Link below for Decision Desk HQ's roundup of yesterday's primary elections around the country.

What happened last night in Louisiana's GOP primary for Senate? The Mardi Gras Lady sang for Sen. Bill Cassidy. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led with 45% & Treasurer John Fleming grabbed 2nd with 28%. Cassidy only got 25%. Letlow & Fleming now go to a June 27 runoff.

Dan Osborn (Ind) is running for #NESen again. To win, he must improve on 2024, when he lost by 7 points while Kamala Harris lost by 21. Osborn got close by running farther ahead of Harris outside Omaha+Lincoln. Take this Falls City precinct in southeast NE: Trump+37 / Osborn+1!

In yesterday's Nebraska primary, Dan Osborn & Democrats got what they wanted in the Senate race. Pro-Osborn candidates won the Democratic & Legalize Marijuana Now primaries. If they withdraw, Osborn will face Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in a one-on-one clash that could help decide control of the Senate.

Democrats need to win 7 of 11 key races to win Senate majority in 2026. Right now, they lead 2 with substantial polling, up in 3 others with limited data. Vibes & prediction markets: Democrats are even money to win the Senate Reality: GOP is still favored (at least for now)

Democrats' Senate vibes are soaring. But today's DDHQ newsletter provides a reality check: Republicans are still somewhat favored to hold onto the Senate.

Democrats are still underdogs in the Senate

Vibes are getting ahead of reality when it comes to rating the Democrats' chances of capturing the Senate

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Tomorrow is Election Day in Virginia. The Decision Desk HQ Podcast dove into the redistricting vote with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social from @statenavigate.org. He noted how No can win if independents break for it, combined with solid Election Day turnout. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/podcast-vi...

New from DDHQ: We spoke with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social of @statenavigate.org about Virginia's redistricting referendum. The YES side looks somewhat favored, but Chaz laid out what needs to happen for the NO campaign to win. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/podcast-vi...

Maine Democrats seem increasingly likely to pick progressive Graham Platner over Gov. Janet Mills in #MESen vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R). Mills would be the 1st sitting governor to lose a Senate primary since 1986. More in this week's DDHQ polling memo: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/maine-sena...

Maine Democrats look to outsider instead of a sitting governor in key Senate race

Graham Platner leads Gov. Janet Mills in Maine's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, with the winner set to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won by 20 points, the largest margin for a liberal candidate over the past two decades. She was helped by Democratic enthusiasm but also lower turnout among Republicans, as suggested by lower turnout vs. 2023-25. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147