"What follows now is probably a sustained campaign by Israel. Its airforce has around 300 manned fighter-jets and long-range attack drones, but only a limited number can attack simultaneously due to its small number of refuelling tankers." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Israel launches an attack on Iran—without America

Waves of strikes target Iran’s leaders and nuclear programme

economist.com

A bit of nuance on regional reactions: plenty of people in the Middle East are happy to see Iran hit. They are also deeply worried about what comes next. But Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis etc. who suffered for years because of the Islamic republic are glad to see it bloodied. 🧵

"'This has been a bad week for the Army for anyone who cares about us being a neutral institution,' one commander at Fort Bragg told @militarydotcom.bsky.social on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation. 'This was shameful.'" www.military.com/daily-news/2...

Bragg Soldiers Who Cheered Trump's Political Attacks While in Uniform Were Checked for Allegiance, Appearance

As President Donald Trump viciously attacked his perceived political foes, he whipped up boos from the gathered troops directed at California leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom.

military.com

On further steps Iran might take after the IAEA censure vote: "Sources in Tehran indicated to @amwajmedia.bsky.social that the 'special measures' may include the expulsion of foreign inspectors. Such a step would be a major escalation and potentially cross US red lines." amwaj.media/en/article/i...

Iran-US talks on edge amid signs of escalation ahead

On the eve of a fateful vote by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, tension over the future of the Iranian nuclear program is spiraling. In an unusual step, the US has or...

amwaj.media

The US embassy in Israel today instructed staff and their families not to travel outside greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva. It issued similar restrictions in April and October last year after the Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on Israel

Exactly right: "Regardless of the location, it is hard to see why Saudi Arabia would entertain a significant nuclear partnership with Iran—let alone one that hands the Islamic republic dominance over a sector the kingdom is keen to develop and control." amwaj.media/en/article/d...

Deep Dive: Why Saudi Arabia shies away from nuclear consortium with Iran

The idea of a regional nuclear consortium is gaining momentum as Iran and the United States explore ways to advance their negotiations over the future of the Iranian atomic program. Following the rece...

amwaj.media

One other thing: worth noting that US media leaks overnight were non-specific. No intel about Israel taking operational steps for an imminent strike. Just that it was "considering military action" or "fully ready" to strike, which is common knowledge www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-...

Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, multiple sources tell CBS News

U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources say.

cbsnews.com

Don't have a clear answer what's happening with US/Iran (no one who's talking about it publicly does!) but will just say that last night's news can be, simultaneously, a stunt to pressure Iran to make concessions *and* the kind of concrete step you'd take before military action

A trade war run by ideologues and buffoons: "[Chinese] exports have risen by 6% overall, owing to increased shipments to Europe and South-East Asia. China's currency, meanwhile, is stronger now against the dollar than it was before April 2nd." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

How America and China spooked each other

As officials met in London, the costs of their trade war were abundantly clear

economist.com

All of the "flaws" here were entirely predictable. "The military and GHF had prepared for smaller crowds than the tens of thousands who have come to the sites" — what on earth did they expect, setting up only a handful of centers to serve 2m people? www.wsj.com/world/middle...

A Flawed Attempt at Delivering Gaza Aid Led to a Wave of Deaths

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation was created to get food quickly to those who need it most. It soon ran into trouble.

wsj.com

Well, this explains that Tucker Carlson tweet denouncing Levin last week (and the claim is indeed untrue: it conflates enriching some weapons-grade uranium with building a nuclear weapon)

As ever with Trump, this could be a very newsworthy admission or it could be meaningless word salad, and there's really no way to be sure which it is www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Trump says Iran is involved in Gaza hostage negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran is involved in negotiations aimed at arranging a ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.

reuters.com

Couple of thoughts here, beyond pointless hand-wringing about how this is an enormous breach of diplomatic norms (🫠). If Huckabee is personally intervening to try and save the Israeli government, it tells you how worried Netanyahu is about losing his coalition www.timesofisrael.com/us-ambassado...

US Ambassador Huckabee said meeting with Haredi MKs in bid to prevent coalition’s fall

Israeli TV says US envoy told ultra-Orthodox figures that 'gov't stability is important for addressing the Iran issue,' said elections would make it more difficult to back Israel

timesofisrael.com

"Every day, we lose more ways to survive. My son is only asking for the bare minimum — a loaf of bread. We're not asking for proper housing or clothes or even meat. All we want is a loaf of bread to stop the children's crying. Is that too much to ask?" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/w...

Parents in Gaza Are Running Out of Ways to Feed Their Children: ‘All We Want Is a Loaf of Bread’

nytimes.com

In the 1980s Israel allowed an Islamist group in Gaza to start gathering weapons, in the hope that it would fight Fatah, Israel's main enemy at the time. That group went on to become Hamas. Glad to see everyone has learned the right lessons from history www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/w...

Israel Armed Palestinian Militia to Fight Hamas, Officials Say

nytimes.com

The GHF ignored weeks of warnings that its model would mean overwhelming crowds. And then the inevitable result: "Senior commanders had considered managing the crowds through the use of live fire. 'The intent was to direct the population using gunfire.'" www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...

Testimonies: IDF responsible for lethal shootings near U.S.-led aid site in Gaza

***

haaretz.com

The idea that Russia might "be helpful" on Iran talks has been floated for months. There's not much evidence it's actually happening. But it's useful for Putin to keep the idea alive in Trump's mind

Iran shipped less oil to China in May, at least according to preliminary data, but it seems unclear how much of that is due to tighter sanctions and how much is down to weak demand + refiners that stockpiled Iranian oil earlier in the year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran Oil Flows to China Fall on Sanctions, Refinery Maintenance

Iran is shipping less oil to China, as toughening sanctions snarl the OPEC producer’s shipments and refinery demand falls in the world’s biggest fossil fuel importer.

bloomberg.com

Will the UAE break OPEC? "It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia and the UAE openly clash. A descent into disorder, fuelled by conflict between OPEC’s largest and third-largest exporters, could then make the cartel unworkable." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Will the UAE break OPEC?

We find that the Emiratis are flouting the cartel’s rules on a grand scale

economist.com

"As leaders from Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh competed to pledge trillions of dollars for US investments during President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East, bankers behind the scenes quietly agreed: Saudi Arabia isn’t the draw it once was." www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Saudi Arabia's Hurdles at Home Are Reshaping the Mideast Financial Order

Bankers and business leaders are shifting more attention toward the kingdom’s neighbors in the Gulf as it grapples with lower oil prices and weakening finances.

bloomberg.com

Good @hdagres.bsky.social analysis on how Araghchi is COPYING Trump's communication style, down to his weird Capitalizations: "Since the current talks began, he has methodically cultivated a narrative designed to catch the ear of Trump and his base." www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

Iran’s Foreign Minister Knows How to Speak Trump’s Language—Literally

In a bid to appease—and manipulate—the pioneer of “Twitter diplomacy,” Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator has adopted President Trump’s social media style while seeking favorable terms for the next big d...

washingtoninstitute.org

If you force large crowds of desperate people to congregate in a war zone in the hope they can obtain scarce aid, it's going to end badly. This isn't just an issue of needing better signage or fences or something. It's a problem with the entire GHF concept www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-aid-gro...

Gaza aid sites to be closed for day as GHF seeks to bolster security after shootings

Organization says it's working to accommodate larger crowds and has made a series of requests to IDF aimed at boosting safety measures after 3 straight days of mass-casualty incidents

timesofisrael.com

"What awaits them is suffocating overcrowding, one of the densest concentrations of human beings in the world. Unlike in other heavily populated urban settings, such as the slums of south Asia, there is no sanitation and no running water." www.ft.com/content/ba6e...

How Israel is forcing Gazans off their land

FT analysis of evacuation orders and satellite imagery shows Palestinians being squeezed into an ever denser sliver of territory

ft.com

This sounds as if someone got really creative and proposed building the enrichment facility on the Tunbs or Abu Musa, where theoretically both Iran and the UAE could claim it was on their soil www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...

Israel for the past six months: we will work to prevent the new Syrian government from having any authority in the south Israel, yesterday: why doesn't the new Syrian government have any authority in the south? www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

Katz casts Syria’s Sharaa as responsible for rocket fire, vows ‘full response’ soon

* * *

timesofisrael.com

The same issues as ever: "A senior Hamas official said the deal contradicted previous discussions between the group and Witkoff. The official told the BBC that the offer did not include guarantees the temporary truce would lead to a permanent ceasefire." www.bbc.com/news/article...

Hamas official says it rejects new US Gaza ceasefire plan backed by Israel

The US says Israel has "signed off" on envoy Steve Witkoff's plan and that it is waiting for a formal response from Hamas.

bbc.com

So an obscure court blocked most of Trump's tariffs, but he can use a different authority to reinstate limited tariffs for five months and start laying the groundwork for open-ended ones on big trading partners. Great news for businesses, who famously love chaos and uncertainty

I mean, it's possible they agree to *something* in the coming weeks (although it will be far short of a formal nuclear deal). But this is also just how Trump talks: excessive, unwarranted optimism about dealmaking is kind of his thing edition.cnn.com/2025/05/28/p...

Trump says he believes US is close to reaching a new Iran nuclear deal as he confirms he told Israel not to disrupt the talks | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump believes his administration is “very close to a solution” on an Iran nuclear agreement and he has personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to disrupt the ...

edition.cnn.com

For all of Witkoff's optimism yesterday, the sticking points here are basically the same as always. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza; Israel does not. Hamas wants to keep hostages as leverage until the end of the deal; Israel wants them out immediately.

Day one of the new "aid mechanism": maybe 2% of Gazan families were able to collect food parcels before thousands of hungry people overran one of the distribution centers and forced it to close temporarily. www.timesofisrael.com/gazans-overr...

Gazans overrun Strip’s new aid center; operators says distribution has resumed

IDF confirms it fired shots into air, not at center itself; US-backed aid group says centers have given out 8,000 food boxes; UN says mechanism far from reaching aid targets

timesofisrael.com