Gavin Hales

@gmhales.bsky.social

Researching/discussing policing, crime and the criminal justice system. Senior Associate Fellow @policefoundationuk.bsky.social but my own views. Based in London, UK.

I've updated my analysis of charge rates for rapes recorded in successive financial years in England and Wales, incorporating the most recent data (published 23 July). Charge rates continue to improve.

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I haven't seen any reporting about this yet, but the drought seems to be taking a toll on housing - a couple of end terraces near me with large cracks on their flank walls, presumably a result of clay soil shrinkage. I'm sure I read something fairly recently that said it was a big problem in 1976.

I've updated my analysis of charge rates for rapes recorded in successive financial years in England and Wales, incorporating the most recent data (published 23 July). Charge rates continue to improve.

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The latest IOPC 'Deaths during or following police contact' report has been published for 2025/26 (covers England and Wales). Always worth a close reading, esp Ch5 on deaths in or following police custody. Mainly drug/alcohol/MH involved cases, some with underlying health issues.

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Some notable consistencies between the MPS and Merseyside in particular, apart from the surge in firearms offences in Merseyside that peaked in the year to Q2 2022/23 (coinciding with when 9-yr-old Olivia Pratt-Korbel was murdered).

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I've been having a rummage through the latest police recorded crime data published by the Home Office on Thursday. I thought this was interesting - looking at how trends in offences involving firearms compare between the MPS and comparator forces.

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If you missed it, the Home Office recently published revised Most Similar Force groupings gov.uk/government/p... These are more properly thought of as most similar force areas, as they take no account of resources etc. The Met (London) is not very much like anywhere else.

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I've been having a rummage through the latest police recorded crime data published by the Home Office on Thursday. I thought this was interesting - looking at how trends in offences involving firearms compare between the MPS and comparator forces.

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News outlets are leading with modelling suggesting 2,700 people may have died from heat-related causes during recent heatwaves. And yet recent death rates are the lowest on record. A short thread on what recent mortality data actually tells us. Spoiler: not much! 1/5 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Thousands will have died in UK's unprecedented May and June heatwaves

An early estimate suggests more than 2,700 people will have died from heat-related causes during the UK's exceptionally hot weather in recent months.

bbc.co.uk

It should hardly need saying, but "no evidence at this time to suggest x" and "keeping an open mind" are both entirely compatible with a change of emphasis in a police investigation should new evidence come to light.

It should hardly need saying, but "no evidence at this time to suggest x" and "keeping an open mind" are both entirely compatible with a change of emphasis in a police investigation should new evidence come to light.

'Facewatch, a facial recognition system used by more than 100 businesses... to monitor thieves, said it was launching a UK-first feature to “alert police instantly when the most serious offenders trigger a live facial recognition match”.'

One question I have on police leadership is whether the promotion system is too focused on demonstrating change (hence endless projects as fodder for promotion applications)? Are the right attributes selected for, to develop/produce effective leaders?

Gavin Hales@gmhales.bsky.social · last mo.

Reading the new Police Leadership Commission report, published by the College of Policing, and I can't help reflecting on the failed experiment with professionalisation that was supposed to help policing meet the challenges of an increasingly complex world.

One question I have on police leadership is whether the promotion system is too focused on demonstrating change (hence endless projects as fodder for promotion applications)? Are the right attributes selected for, to develop/produce effective leaders?

Gavin Hales@gmhales.bsky.social · last mo.

Reading the new Police Leadership Commission report, published by the College of Policing, and I can't help reflecting on the failed experiment with professionalisation that was supposed to help policing meet the challenges of an increasingly complex world.

I'm old enough to remember the last leadership review in 2015 and I'm not sure what difference it made. I need to read more of the new one, but I guess the initial question on my mind is: what's going to be different this time?