🔔UPDATED: #US Foreign #Military Sales🪖 💡With data up to June 2026 🔗 buff.ly/3G3OLbg 🖋️ @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social #EconSky
Guntram Wolff
@guntramwolff.bsky.social
Professor of economics at Free University Brussels (ULB) and Bruegel fellow. European integration, climate, defence- and geoeconomics, macro; Frmr Director @dgap.org & @bruegel.org RT ≠ endorsement
It was also a pleasure to participate in the Symposium in Honor of Jürgen von Hagen’s 70th Birthday at the @unibonn.bsky.social, moderating a session on European Governance and Geopolitics. Many thanks to the organizers and panelists for the insightful discussion.
🪖 Who controls the defence industry? ❗ The #defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are poorly understood 📑 Working Paper by Marco Becht, @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/KmMPtn4 #EconSky
Who controls the defence industry?
The defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are varied and poorly understood
buff.ly
Big spending, little future: Germany is rearming differently from Poland and the UK - our new report is out: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland - Kiel Institute
kielinstitut.de
Dear 🇩🇪 government, it *is* in your job description to shield us from future energy crises. Not only a French thing. But 👏 to 🇫🇷
Jaap Burger@jaapburger.eu · 4mo agoThe French government has announced the measures of its plan to accelerate electrification: - a ban on gas boilers in new houses from the end of 2026 - increased support for replacing old heating with heat pumps - 100 regions will pilot comprehensive heat transition plans to phase out gas by 2030
Interesting and very fast analysis on the economics of a possible toll paid to Iran 👇🏼
Guntram Wolff@guntramwolff.bsky.social · 4mo agoCould a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis? I show that 80-95% of the toll would be paid by the Gulf states, meaning that the rest of the world is largely indifferent to a toll as long as oil supply is restored. (it's a simple tax incidence analysis) www.bruegel.org/analysis/cou...
WSJ editorial board: "What a spectacle: America’s second-in-command campaigning on behalf of a Prime Minister who may lose, in a small central European country, while America is prosecuting a war in Iran" www.wsj.com/opinion/jd-v...
Opinion | JD Vance Stars in Our Man in Budapest
The Veep meddles in a Hungarian election to help himself in 2028.
wsj.com
Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis? I show that 80-95% of the toll would be paid by the Gulf states, meaning that the rest of the world is largely indifferent to a toll as long as oil supply is restored. (it's a simple tax incidence analysis) www.bruegel.org/analysis/cou...
Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?
With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most
bruegel.org
Bruegel@bruegel.org · 4mo ago⛔ Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays? 🔍 @guntramwolff.bsky.social assesses what the possibility of a #Hormuz toll could mean both for the region and international energy markets. 🔖 Read the Analysis now: 🔗 buff.ly/qQeLiFF #EconSky
New article with @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social : Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database (first 50 downloads without paywall) www.tandfonline.com/eprint/JV94K...
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database
Public concerns about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic rel...
tandfonline.com
Starmer is asked directly by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social whether the UK will rejoin the Single Market. He does not rule it out.
NEW: "Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database. " Our latest academic article with @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database
Public concerns about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic rel...
tandfonline.com
New: Alex Burilkov&I analyse the financial asymmetry of asymmetric warfare and argue that Europe, like the Gulf, needs to learn two important lessons from Ukraine: - invest in cheap air defence - build strike capabilities to disrupt military production . www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
The costs and failures of air defence in the Iran conflict and what they mean for Europe
Shoring up Europe’s defensive capabilities needs to focus on cheap interceptors and offensive capability to target military industries
bruegel.org
Das wird bestimmt viel Freude und neue Wähler bringen. Wie kann man nach den Wahldebakeln auf solche Ideen kommen? www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...
(S+) Bundesregierung: Mehrwertsteuer rauf, Ehegattensplitting weg? Das sind die Reformideen
Union und SPD wollen rasch einen Plan vorlegen, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln und den Sozialstaat zu entlasten. Doch über Maßnahmen und Finanzierung wird heftig gestritten. Diese Optionen liegen auf d...
spiegel.de
looking forward to the debate tomorrow. Please join!
Centre for Economic Policy Research@cepr.org · 5mo agoEurope’s Defence Strain: Demand Signals, Procurement Hurdles, Tech Opportunities 📆26 Mar 5PM CET📍Online 🗣️Pierre Vandier @guntramwolff.bsky.social Guillaume de la Brosse @katjabego.bsky.social @nathanlane.bsky.social Esben Gadsbøll & @cristinacaffarra.bsky.social Register: ow.ly/33uq50Ywepe #EconSky
"Vladimir Putin’s administration has endorsed a plan by the Social Design Agency, a Kremlin-linked media consultancy under western sanctions, to bolster Orbán’s Fidesz party by flooding social media with messages designed in Russia and posted by influential Hungarians." www.ft.com/content/34df...
Kremlin backs covert campaign to keep Viktor Orbán in power
Vladimir Putin endorses plan drawn up by Russian consultancy that is under western sanctions
ft.com
Soon we can forget discussing the closure of Strait closure. Quatar LNG exports are down for many years
“Deeper defence co-operation across European countries is necessary to reduce costs for taxpayers and ensure technology is developed and controlled in Europe. This new initiative is a right step and I hope more countries will eventually join,” Wolff told the FT. www.ft.com/content/3dcd...
Trio of European states set up new fund to boost defence spending
UK, Netherlands and Finland join forces to reduce procurement costs through economies of scale
ft.com
🇪🇺 Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups By Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital and @guntramwolff.bsky.social – @bruegel.org www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups
European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs
bruegel.org
🪖Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs. 🖋️Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital @guntramwolff.bsky.social #EconSky
Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups
European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs
buff.ly
German gov't making a big strategic mistake. Instead of diversifying away from gas and oil, this will keep the country trapped in geopolitical dependencies.
Georg Weizsäcker@georgweizsaecker.bsky.social · 5mo agonew podcast - listen in
Bruegel@bruegel.org · 5mo ago🎙️ NEW PODCAST: Europe and the Iran war 🪖 @rebeccawire.bsky.social, @eribakova.bsky.social, @tagliapietra.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social discuss what the conflict means for inflation, oil prices, the economy and Ukraine. #EconSky 🔗 Listen to the podcast: www.bruegel.org/podcast/euro...
Sehr schade, dass sie anscheinend den SVR verlassen wird
RRudi Bachmann@bachmannrudi.bsky.social · 5mo ago
Ein sehr lesenswertes Interview in der @faznet.bsky.social mit Ulrike Malmendier. Wichtigster Satz: “Wenn Europa nicht stärker wird, müssen wir uns entscheiden: Entweder werden wir Vasallenstaat von Amerika oder von China.” Aber da steht noch viel mehr Kluges drin. www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Well done Spain. This should be EU-wide. A first (but hopefully not last) signal to the tech bros that their dystopian vision has no place in Europe giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Spain to ban social media access for under-16s
Move follows Australia’s decision to introduce age-based restrictions over child safety concerns
giftarticle.ft.com
Eine sehr interessante Studie meiner @ulbruxelles.bsky.social Kollegen Micael Castanheira, Giovanni Paolo Mariani und Clemence Tricaud. Sie zeigen, dass bei der Bereitstellung vieler öffentlicher Güter wie zB guter Schulen und Krankenhäuser die Ungleichheit eher erhöht wird
The EU cannot accept being coerced into selling Greenland. As the narcisist power grab of President Trump expands, it is important to say no. US lawmakers are being more vocal and so are European lawmakers and countries. Will Europe have to pay a price? - yes.
Nog niet zo lang geleden werd een Europees leger smalend afgedaan als luchtfietserij. Vandaag is een meerderheid van de Europeanen vóór. Alleen nationale politici stribbelen tegen. Defensie expert @guntramwolff.bsky.social in @nrc.nl “burgers zijn verder dan nationale politici”. Must-read artikel!
Tom-Jan Meeus@tomjanmeeus.bsky.social · 7mo ago
“De Amerikanen hebben weinig goeds met ons voor. Veel burgers snappen wat er op het spel staat, dat we voor een Europese defensie moeten gaan. Zij zijn verder dan de meeste Europese leiders.” Interview @guntramwolff.bsky.social www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...
‘We moeten af van onze militaire afhankelijkheid van de Amerikanen’
Guntram Wolff | economisch defensie-expert: Europese leiders zijn bang om voor Europese defensie te kiezen en minder met de Amerikanen te doen. Maar er is weinig keus, zegt defensie-expert Guntram Wol...
nrc.nl
Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen: "If we have to choose between the US & Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO. We choose the Kingdom of Denmark. We choose the EU." "Greenland does not want to be owned by the US. Greenland does not want to be governed by the US" he later added.
Estimates for number killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre are greatly debated more than 30 years later. Experts say likely between 1,000-3,500. If CBS News warnings are true for Iran's 12,000-20,000 — we are looking at something 5x to 15x greater. A historic horror.